IA/OH-CBS/YouGov: Grassley & Portman both +7

[Heisenberg]

They will both lose because split ticket voting doesn't exist anymore. /hacks

But in all seriousness, Portman is probably running the best campaign of any Republican Senator this year. Strickland's record as governor is pretty terrbile, but there is no other Democrat in Ohio who could have made this competitive IMO. Still, the fact that Strickland is struggling so much in a presidential year doesn't bode well for Sherrod Brown in 2018.

Strickland's not an incumbent while Brown is.  I'm not saying that Brown won't be in trouble, but comparing this race to Browns is comparing apples to oranges.

Well, Strickland is basically a generic D with statewide name recognition. Portman is not a generic R and has been doing really well with campaigning and presenting himself to voters. Brown, on the other hand is an unapologetic liberal who, despite representing an R+1 state, legislates like its a D+15 state. Even Mandel would win in a neutral year, assuming Scott Rupert doesn't run. He is not as bad as the red avatars paint him, though since he didn't endorse Kasich, I imagine Kasich and Friends will back someone else (Tiberi, Stivers, Husted, etc.) in the primary.

[Heisenberg]

These races are starting to make more sense. Grassely being way up and Portman being slightly down early on always puzzled me. Looks like the name recognition game helped Strickland early, and after people payed attention for a few months, Portman's numbers went up. With Grassely, I thought lack of ticket splitting in modern politics was going to hurt him, and it is.

They will both lose because split ticket voting doesn't exist anymore. /hacks

But in all seriousness, Portman is probably running the best campaign of any Republican Senator this year. Strickland's record as governor is pretty terrbile, but there is no other Democrat in Ohio who could have made this competitive IMO. Still, the fact that Strickland is struggling so much in a presidential year doesn't bode well for Sherrod Brown in 2018.

Strickland's not an incumbent while Brown is.  I'm not saying that Brown won't be in trouble, but comparing this race to Browns is comparing apples to oranges.

Well, Strickland is basically a generic D with statewide name recognition. Portman is not a generic R and has been doing really well with campaigning and presenting himself to voters. Brown, on the other hand is an unapologetic liberal who, despite representing an R+1 state, legislates like its a D+15 state. Even Mandel would win in a neutral year, assuming Scott Rupert doesn't run. He is not as bad as the red avatars paint him, though since he didn't endorse Kasich, I imagine Kasich and Friends will back someone else (Tiberi, Stivers, Husted, etc.) in the primary.

What is he then?

He is a maverick on SSM and clean energy research. He also over performed Kasich in 2010, and has picked up the endorsement of the Teamsters Union. He is also very decorated (former Trade Rep. and OMB Director, though that may be a liability this year). I do not consider him a generic Republican.