Pew National Poll: Clinton +4

[Erich Maria Remarque]

They didn't bother with a two-way race like last time? *sigh*

Because it is not.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Yeah, the race does seem to be tightening.

Fortunately last time the state polls proved more reliable than the national ones.

[Doimper]

The fact that people are panicking over a poll that has Trump at 37% just goes to show how solid Clinton is right now. Or how weak Trump is. Probably a combination of both.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

It terrifies me that despite leading Hillary in the low 40s. Looks like she won't get 50% in the GE.

Remember, 3rd parties always fade a bit into the fall, but yes it's highly unlikely anyone gets a majority this year.  However, I think Clinton will easily be over 45%.

Clinton and  especially Trump are the most disliked presidential candidates. Ever.
And if rember correctly, 3rd parties usually fade directly after the major party conventions. Right now it kind of opposite. 3rd parties grows...

[ProudModerate2]

Yeah, the race does seem to be tightening.
Fortunately last time the state polls proved more reliable than the national ones.

True.
And remember this is just one poll .... the RCP average still shows Hillary leading by about 6.

[OwlRhetoric]

You'd think the third party fade would absolutely come if Johnson doesn't get into the debates, as has happened historically. I'm feeling less sure than ever, though, as I see the Johnson/Stein numbers holding up weirdly consistently in every poll.

[Ebsy]

The crosstabs are junk.

I think we are approaching the point where the national polls and the state polls become divergent.

[Gass3268]

The crosstabs are junk.

I think we are approaching the point where the national polls and the state polls become divergent.

I've basically ceased reading national polls cross tabs on Latinos. Much rather stick with the ones sanctioned by the Spanish speaking media. I figure they know how to poll their own audience better than others do.

[Seriously?]

Registered voters, too.. Glorious, glorious news to Make America Great Again.

Most polling shows that Clinton does better with LVs.

No, it doesn't. I can give you poll after poll after poll that suggests otherwise.

[Spark]

The race is tightening

[Fusionmunster]

Registered voters, too.. Glorious, glorious news to Make America Great Again.

Most polling shows that Clinton does better with LVs.

No, it doesn't. I can give you poll after poll after poll that suggests otherwise.

Do it. Cant be a daily tracking poll.

[Fusionmunster]

The race is tightening

Quinnipiac says otherwise.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

You'd think the third party fade would absolutely come if Johnson doesn't get into the debates, as has happened historically. I'm feeling less sure than ever, though, as I see the Johnson/Stein numbers holding up weirdly consistently in every poll.

Has it? I thought, that the numbers were pretty stable after conventions.
Nader, 2000
Perot, 1996
None of them participated in the debates (though Perot did it in 1992 = high name recognition?).

I'd also say that 3rd party candidates get more media coverage in this year; it might help them.

[Classic Conservative]

The race is tightening

Quinnipiac says otherwise.

But... a few week ago all the Red Avatars said that Quinnipiac was trash. But now it's a great poll because it shows Hillary up by a large margin?

[Fusionmunster]

The race is tightening

Quinnipiac says otherwise.

But... a few week ago all the Red Avatars said that Quinnipiac was trash. But now it's a great poll because it shows Hillary up by a large margin?

No, I think Quinnipiac leans R(they dont deserve their high 538 grade). But when even Quinnipiac is showing Hillary running away with the swing states, I wouldn't describe this race as tightening.

[ag]

The race is tightening

The chances we all will be dead in 2 years are growing. No reason to smile.

[Mehmentum]

The race is tightening

Quinnipiac says otherwise.

But... a few week ago all the Red Avatars said that Quinnipiac was trash. But now it's a great poll because it shows Hillary up by a large margin?

No, I think Quinnipiac leans R(they dont deserve their high 538 grade). But when even Quinnipiac is showing Hillary running away with the swing states, I wouldn't describe this race as tightening.

The reality is that Quinnipiac leaned R before the fit in their Likely voter screen (they also had an annoying habit of showing Pennsylvania being to the right of Ohio, lol).  Since implementing LVs, they've been much more in line with other pollsters.

[Spark]

The race is tightening

Quinnipiac says otherwise.

But... a few week ago all the Red Avatars said that Quinnipiac was trash. But now it's a great poll because it shows Hillary up by a large margin?

Totally biased.

[Spark]

The race is tightening

The chances we all will be dead in 2 years are growing. No reason to smile.

It's about time the Democrats stop fear-mongering. No such thing will happen.

[Wells]

The race is tightening

The chances we all will be dead in 2 years are growing. No reason to smile.

It's about time the Democrats stop fear-mongering. No such thing will happen.

I think more countries should have nuclear weapons. And who says we can't use ours?

[Mr. Morden]

So...yet another poll with Trump in 4th place among blacks.

[Buzz]

Improvement! Nice to see!

[ag]

The race is tightening

The chances we all will be dead in 2 years are growing. No reason to smile.

It's about time the Democrats stop fear-mongering. No such thing will happen.

Conditional on Trump losing, it will not hapen.

But I would really prefer Trumpistas not to impose their death wish on the rest of us. If you insist on following your guru, let him take you all to Guyana, properly supplied with Kool Aid. Just leave the rest of us alone.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

As expected ... some closer national polling (despite great state polling) and some start looking for their passports. Chill.

[Seriously?]

Registered voters, too.. Glorious, glorious news to Make America Great Again.

Most polling shows that Clinton does better with LVs.

No, it doesn't. I can give you poll after poll after poll that suggests otherwise.

Do it. Cant be a daily tracking poll.

2-way aggregate - LV Clinton +4% (all August) Clinton +3% (this week)
Reuters/Ipsos   8/13 - 8/17   1049 LV   3.5   41   36   Clinton +5
LA Times/USC   8/10 - 8/16   2551 LV   --   44   43   Clinton +1
Bloomberg   8/5 - 8/8   749 LV   3.6   50   44   Clinton +6

2-way aggregate - RV Clinton +9.1% (all August) Clinton 7.5% (this week)
Economist/YouGov   8/14 - 8/16   911 RV   4.2   47   41   Clinton +6
NBC News/SM   8/8 - 8/14   15179 RV   1.2   50   41   Clinton +9
ABC News/Wash Post   8/1 - 8/4   815 RV   4.0   50   42   Clinton +8
IBD/TIPP   7/29 - 8/4   851 RV   3.4   46   39   Clinton +7
McClatchy/Marist   8/1 - 8/3   983 RV   3.1   48   33   Clinton +15
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   7/31 - 8/3   800 RV   3.5   47   38   Clinton +9
FOX News   7/31 - 8/2   1022 RV   3.0   49   39   Clinton +10

4-way LV Clinton +5.5% (August+PPP) Clinton +3% (this week)
Rasmussen Reports   8/15 - 8/16   1000 LV   3.0   41   39   9   3   Clinton +2
Reuters/Ipsos   8/13 - 8/17   1049 LV   3.5   39   35   7   2   Clinton +4
Bloomberg   8/5 - 8/8   749 LV   3.6   44   40   9   4   Clinton +4
Breitbart/Gravis   8/9 - 8/9   2832 LV   1.8   42   37   9   3   Clinton +5
Monmouth   8/4 - 8/7   683 LV   3.8   50   37   7   2   Clinton +13 (likely outlier, but included in calculus)
PPP (D)   7/29 - 7/30   1276 LV   2.7   46   41   6   2   Clinton +5

4-way Registered Voter Clinton +7.4% (August +CNN) Clinton +5.3% (this week)
Pew Research   8/9 - 8/16   1567 RV   2.8   41   37   10   4   Clinton +4
Economist/YouGov   8/14 - 8/16   911 RV   4.2   41   35   7   3   Clinton +6
NBC News/SM   8/8 - 8/14   15179 RV   1.2   43   37   11   4   Clinton +6
ABC News/Wash Post   8/1 - 8/4   815 RV   4.0   45   37   8   4   Clinton +8
IBD/TIPP   7/29 - 8/4   851 RV   3.4   39   35   12   5   Clinton +4
McClatchy/Marist   8/1 - 8/3   983 RV   3.1   45   31   10   6   Clinton +14
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   7/31 - 8/3   800 RV   3.5   43   34   10   5   Clinton +9
CNN/ORC   7/29 - 7/31   894 RV   3.5   45   37   9   5   Clinton +8

Places where both were measured
Washington Post VA Poll (where they were deceitful and went with RV despite having a better Trump number for LV) Clinton +14/11 RV, Clinton +8/7 LV
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=243589.0

Reuters Latest release shows Roughly 3 point pro-Trump difference from RV to LV
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_8.17_.16_.pdf

Shall I beat this dead horse some more?