IA/CO/VA-Quinnipiac: Clinton +3/+2 in IA, +10/+8 in CO, +12/+11 in VA

[NOVA Green]

It would make since for Iowa's younger generation to going more republican, I don't think it's purely a Trump phenomenon. Iowa did a sharp trend left due to the farm crisis in the eighties, as these voters die off the Iowa electorate will match its demographics more. Keep in mind that college whites in states with similar culture/ demographics were strongly republican in 2012. (Kansas, Nebraksa, Indiana etc)

Additionally, several important points to note about Iowa, is that it is a state that has net outmigration of college educated voters to elsewhere in the region and country for economic opportunities and seeking more active lifestyles of larger metro areas. The economic profile of the state also doesn't particularly lend itself to an influx of middle-age college "professional class" type workers (Tech sector, software engineers, etc...), so many of the young people that remain are high-school grads, vocational school, and community college grads with deep local home-state roots, that will more closely mirror the demographic, social, and political profile of their respective communities.

Further, Iowa is one of the most dovish/isolationist states in the union on "elective" overseas adventures that is deeply rooted in the collective DNA from WWI, WWII, and more recently Vietnam and Iraq, and this is a state where Trump likely seems like a different kind of Republican than we have seen over the past 3 decades.

Combine that with a more economically protectionist attitude, not only in the agricultural sector (Ethanol?) but also in the manufacturing plants of Eastern Iowa (Caterpillar) as well as the meat processing, bio-sciences, and agricultural sciences, this state is actually a better fit for Trump's unique Republican brand than might immediately meet the eye.

Still, this will likely be a close race regardless of Clinton holding her current 7-8 point lead or dropping down to more like a 2012 Obama lead, in a state that is not particularly dynamic in terms of overall population changes.

[NOVA Green]

Trump is narrowly winning younger voters in Iowa, while Clinton is winning older voters by a slightly larger margin. That's different from almost every other state I've seen, but this is the second poll that has shown this in Iowa.

In Virginia, they are actually tied with folks in military households. That is awful news for Trump in the Hampton Roads area. Virginia Beach could actually flip to Democrats.

This fits with what we have seen from two of the other recent VA polls showing Hillary with anywhere from a +10-+25 lead in the Tidewaters region.

I have always been extremely skeptical of this narrative that Trump is extremely popular among *active duty service members and military households*. This flies in the face of the changing demographics of the US Military over the past 20 years, dramatic increase for Democratic support since '08 with voters <35, as well as county and precinct level results from military base communities.

Where Trump does appear to be performing well is with military veterans, that heavily skew 55+ and Whiter and more Southern than the national average.... (And yes, I know there are a bunch of retired vets living in the Tidewater. )

[NOVA Green]

Why do CO and VA keep getting polled together by various polling outlets? FOX, Marist, and now Quinnipiac have had this pattern. Not that I have a problem with it, only further highlights Trump's glaring issue with college-educated whites.

I like how Marist essentially has the Rust Belt 3 (Iowa, Ohio, & Pennsylvania) and the Sun Belt 4 (Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, & Virginia).

This may be the first time I've seen Iowa being described as "Rust Belt."

We used to prefer the term "Heartlands" back when I lived in the industrial MidWest.

[NOVA Green]

Trump is narrowly winning younger voters in Iowa, while Clinton is winning older voters by a slightly larger margin. That's different from almost every other state I've seen, but this is the second poll that has shown this in Iowa.

In Virginia, they are actually tied with folks in military households. That is awful news for Trump in the Hampton Roads area. Virginia Beach could actually flip to Democrats.

Why is this happening in Iowa of all places? Most of Iowa's younger voters are educated/have college degrees. Is it still residual bad feelings from the primary/caucus?

As a college student at Iowa State, I can attest that there is basically no one young there who is all that enthusiastic for Hillary Clinton. Basically every D who isn't a professor caucused for Sanders, even people who don't think of Clinton all that negatively. Rubio had a plurality among R's, with significant pockets of support for Trump, Cruz, and Paul.

Certainly fits with the profile of largest colleges/universities in Iowa during the Democratic Primaries:

1.) University of Iowa-  (31k students). Johnson County (60-40 Bernie)
2.) Iowa State University- (36k students). Story County (60-40 Bernie)
3.) Des Moines Area Community College- (25k+ students in six campuses). Polk, Boone, Carroll, Jasper, Des Moines). Mixed voting results.
4.) Kirkwood Community College- (26.5k students). Multiple campuses. Main campus Linn County (52-48 Bernie)
5.) University of Northern Iowa- (12.7k students). Black Hawk County (53-47 Bernie).

Edited: Updated to reflect latest enrollment figures through the labyrinth of the World Wide Web

[NOVA Green]

^^Those are probably old enrollment numbers for Iowa State. It was 36,001 (actual number) as of a year ago.

Damn!!!!

I know that Iowa has a ton of state and private colleges and universities and well-funded educational system, but for a relatively small population state, these are actually very impressive numbers.

Edit: Was trying to demonstrate large college populations with caucus results, so pulled some old data from the internet (Go figure. )

[NOVA Green]

^^Those are probably old enrollment numbers for Iowa State. It was 36,001 (actual number) as of a year ago.

All of those numbers look old by at least a few years. I know UI has been 30k plus the last few years minimum. I think Kirkwood is also higher and spans not only Linn county (main campus), but a sizable Johnson county campus and locations all over the counties surrounding Linn and Johnson.

Thanks for the feedback... attempted to update enrollment numbers based upon what I could find.

Now, the more fundamental question (For our resident Iowa residents, experts, students), is where are voters <35 and college-educated voters at in terms of the current Presidential Election?

Is this current poll simply an outlier on the cross-tabs, or for some reason are younger voters in Iowa either leaning narrowly towards Trump, or is there a massive residual "Bernie or Bust" active movement among his core supporters in this particular state?