IA/CO/VA-Quinnipiac: Clinton +3/+2 in IA, +10/+8 in CO, +12/+11 in VA (user search)
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  IA/CO/VA-Quinnipiac: Clinton +3/+2 in IA, +10/+8 in CO, +12/+11 in VA (search mode)
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Author Topic: IA/CO/VA-Quinnipiac: Clinton +3/+2 in IA, +10/+8 in CO, +12/+11 in VA  (Read 6183 times)
john cage bubblegum
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 361


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: -6.96

« on: August 17, 2016, 01:10:47 PM »

Stuff I noticed/liked from this Q poll:

- The age breakdowns for Iowa are inverse of almost every other poll, with younger voters significantly favoring Trump and older voters significantly favoring Clinton.  Perhaps it's just a subsample oddity that balanced out.

- Clinton getting 16% of Republican women in VA is beautiful!  11% of Repub men is pretty impressive too.  Virginia is hopeless for Trump.

- I love looking at the Trump #s among young voters on the 4-way ballot in states like CO.  18% among 18-34 year olds, one point ahead of Jill Stein.

- Their CO sample seems pretty white, but it doesn't matter because Clinton has a 7 point lead among white voters, which is just ridic.  25 point lead with college-educated CO whites.  Fantastic.
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john cage bubblegum
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 361


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: -6.96

« Reply #1 on: August 17, 2016, 01:30:50 PM »

Trump is narrowly winning younger voters in Iowa, while Clinton is winning older voters by a slightly larger margin. That's different from almost every other state I've seen, but this is the second poll that has shown this in Iowa.

In Virginia, they are actually tied with folks in military households. That is awful news for Trump in the Hampton Roads area. Virginia Beach could actually flip to Democrats.

I wonder how this will apply in the future. Possibly the beginning (or acceleration) of a shift away from Democrats, notably at the presidential level? Trump's numbers for 18-29 are not huge but it's a reversal from the past 12 years for sure.

I'm just surprised it is young Iowans going for Trump. Him, of all people. Sheesh.

I've been surprised that Iowa is suddenly looking like an R+5 state (by margin not PVI), after being 1-2 points more Dem than the country pretty consistently since '92.  Looks like the younger voters could be making the difference. 

The last Monmouth IA poll found the same phenomenon with older voters supporting Clinton and younger voters Trump.  FWIW, the last CBS/YouGov IA poll found the traditional age splits with younger voters supporting Clinton.
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