IA/CO/VA-Quinnipiac: Clinton +3/+2 in IA, +10/+8 in CO, +12/+11 in VA (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 30, 2024, 01:02:40 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  IA/CO/VA-Quinnipiac: Clinton +3/+2 in IA, +10/+8 in CO, +12/+11 in VA (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: IA/CO/VA-Quinnipiac: Clinton +3/+2 in IA, +10/+8 in CO, +12/+11 in VA  (Read 6309 times)
indietraveler
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,039


« on: August 17, 2016, 04:50:23 PM »

More polls showing VA and CO are out of reach at this point.

Hillary needs Bernie in IA to help max out the college vote, maybe Obama too (though he has below average approval here).
Logged
indietraveler
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,039


« Reply #1 on: August 17, 2016, 05:00:31 PM »

^^Those are probably old enrollment numbers for Iowa State. It was 36,001 (actual number) as of a year ago.

All of those numbers look old by at least a few years. I know UI has been 30k plus the last few years minimum. I think Kirkwood is also higher and spans not only Linn county (main campus), but a sizable Johnson county campus and locations all over the counties surrounding Linn and Johnson.
Logged
indietraveler
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,039


« Reply #2 on: August 17, 2016, 05:55:12 PM »

^^Those are probably old enrollment numbers for Iowa State. It was 36,001 (actual number) as of a year ago.

All of those numbers look old by at least a few years. I know UI has been 30k plus the last few years minimum. I think Kirkwood is also higher and spans not only Linn county (main campus), but a sizable Johnson county campus and locations all over the counties surrounding Linn and Johnson.

Thanks for the feedback... attempted to update enrollment numbers based upon what I could find. Smiley

Now, the more fundamental question (For our resident Iowa residents, experts, students), is where are voters <35 and college-educated voters at in terms of the current Presidential Election?

Is this current poll simply an outlier on the cross-tabs, or for some reason are younger voters in Iowa either leaning narrowly towards Trump, or is there a massive residual "Bernie or Bust" active movement among his core supporters in this particular state?

Thanks for the updated numbers. While I am surprised that Trump is leading Clinton among younger voters in the state (if future polls hold), I think that the % of Trump supporters here would be higher than what some of you expect among college voters. I have a lot of interaction with UI students (and I would fit in the "young voter" category being late 20s) and while it's obvious Clinton will have a sizable margin here, I also see more Trump supporters around than you might think for a college town. A lot of in-state students come from smaller communities more likely to be conservative.

I don't have the break down or any numbers here, but ISU is known for their ag programs and attract a lot of farm kids who go for ag related degrees. ISU overall is less liberal than UI. That being said, UI has more international students and out of state students (noticeable population from Chicago+suburbs) who either can't vote or might be voting in their home state. Several students I have interacted with caucused for Bernie, but consider themselves democrat and would support whoever the D nominee is. The "Bernie or bust" kids I run into are some of the most annoying around. I think this group is small though and won't have an impact.

Young voters across the state are probably more conservative than young voters in other swing states. I hate making statements like this, but it's more likely that young liberal in-state college students who go to college anywhere in Iowa move to an urban out of state area upon graduation. Students who stick around or move back to their home communities are more likely to be conservative, making young voters more conservative overall here.

I know more students than I can count that are from the state and after graduation move to Chicago or Denver. All the ones I can think of now at the very minimum would vote democrat just to stop Trump even if they don't care for Clinton.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.021 seconds with 13 queries.