IA/CO/VA-Quinnipiac: Clinton +3/+2 in IA, +10/+8 in CO, +12/+11 in VA

[dspNY]

Anyway, the sum effect of these polls makes Trump's chances of winning the election about the same as Steph Curry missing a free throw on 538's Nowcast and polls only

[Fargobison]

Trump will be in VA on Saturday.

[BlueSwan]

Never mind Iowa, VA+CO+PA+MI+NH locks up the election for Hillary, and those all look rock solid at this point.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Look at those Johnson numbers. WOW!

[Virginiá]

Trump is narrowly winning younger voters in Iowa, while Clinton is winning older voters by a slightly larger margin. That's different from almost every other state I've seen, but this is the second poll that has shown this in Iowa.

In Virginia, they are actually tied with folks in military households. That is awful news for Trump in the Hampton Roads area. Virginia Beach could actually flip to Democrats.

I wonder how this will apply in the future. Possibly the beginning (or acceleration) of a shift away from Democrats, notably at the presidential level? Trump's numbers for 18-29 are not huge but it's a reversal from the past 12 years for sure.

I'm just surprised it is young Iowans going for Trump. Him, of all people. Sheesh.

[ProudModerate2]

Very nice.
Hillary needs to spend more time in IA.
Convince the younger generation here, that trump is a fraud.

[President Johnson]

Very nice.
Hillary needs to spend more time in IA.
Convince the younger generation here, that trump is a fraud.

Or send Bernard there (maybe together with Kaine). He could really help in this particular state.

[IceSpear]

Wow...et tu, Quinnipiac?

At least Seriously? will always have the LA Times poll. lol

[Hammy]

"Clinton Has Big Leads In Colorado, Virginia, Tied In Iowa, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds"

lol what

Probably due to being within the statistical margin of error.

[Yank2133]

Another terrible round of polling for Donald Trump.

[john cage bubblegum]

Trump is narrowly winning younger voters in Iowa, while Clinton is winning older voters by a slightly larger margin. That's different from almost every other state I've seen, but this is the second poll that has shown this in Iowa.

In Virginia, they are actually tied with folks in military households. That is awful news for Trump in the Hampton Roads area. Virginia Beach could actually flip to Democrats.

I wonder how this will apply in the future. Possibly the beginning (or acceleration) of a shift away from Democrats, notably at the presidential level? Trump's numbers for 18-29 are not huge but it's a reversal from the past 12 years for sure.

I'm just surprised it is young Iowans going for Trump. Him, of all people. Sheesh.

I've been surprised that Iowa is suddenly looking like an R+5 state (by margin not PVI), after being 1-2 points more Dem than the country pretty consistently since '92.  Looks like the younger voters could be making the difference. 

The last Monmouth IA poll found the same phenomenon with older voters supporting Clinton and younger voters Trump.  FWIW, the last CBS/YouGov IA poll found the traditional age splits with younger voters supporting Clinton.

[Bismarck]

It would make since for Iowa's younger generation to going more republican, I don't think it's purely a Trump phenomenon. Iowa did a sharp trend left due to the farm crisis in the eighties, as these voters die off the Iowa electorate will match its demographics more. Keep in mind that college whites in states with similar culture/ demographics were strongly republican in 2012. (Kansas, Nebraksa, Indiana etc)

[Holmes]

Trump is narrowly winning younger voters in Iowa, while Clinton is winning older voters by a slightly larger margin. That's different from almost every other state I've seen, but this is the second poll that has shown this in Iowa.

In Virginia, they are actually tied with folks in military households. That is awful news for Trump in the Hampton Roads area. Virginia Beach could actually flip to Democrats.

Why is this happening in Iowa of all places? Most of Iowa's younger voters are educated/have college degrees. Is it still residual bad feelings from the primary/caucus?

Maybe young Iowa voters who went to town halls and school gymnasiums to scream at older Clinton supporters pushed them over the edge.

[Wiz in Wis]

Trump is narrowly winning younger voters in Iowa, while Clinton is winning older voters by a slightly larger margin. That's different from almost every other state I've seen, but this is the second poll that has shown this in Iowa.

In Virginia, they are actually tied with folks in military households. That is awful news for Trump in the Hampton Roads area. Virginia Beach could actually flip to Democrats.

Everyone needs to calm down on the idea that IA youth are "shifting GOP"

This is one poll folks. Show me that this happens consistently and I'll believe you, until then, this is a subsample issue.

[Virginiá]

It would make since for Iowa's younger generation to going more republican, I don't think it's purely a Trump phenomenon. Iowa did a sharp trend left due to the farm crisis in the eighties, as these voters die off the Iowa electorate will match its demographics more. Keep in mind that college whites in states with similar culture/ demographics were strongly republican in 2012. (Kansas, Nebraksa, Indiana etc)

Democrats were also winning the Millennial vote since 2004. Support was in the mid-50s, save for 2008 (60%+), but generally I regard sustained youth support in a state over decade(s) as meaning a possible shift in the state's partisan future, so this could be the end of that. If Trump of all people can win over young voters there, then I don't see how Democrats will do better against a more conventional, non-controversial Republican in the future. It's possible they find something particularly appealing about Trump but not generic Republican presidential candidates, but I doubt that it is the case here.

On the other hand, Bush held a 4% lead over Gore in 2000 in Iowa when the dust settled, so I suppose we will need a couple more presidential elections to definitively see what direction Iowa is going in (imo)

This is one poll folks. Show me that this happens consistently and I'll believe you, until then, this is a subsample issue.

I thought someone else said this was the 2nd poll they've seen to show similar movements. You're right that we should wait before drawing conclusions, and I would even go further (as stated above) and say that we will really need to see more elections in general before latching onto any sort of narrative here.

[Gass3268]

Marist had a tie among voters under 45, Clinton +5 with those over 45. Suffolk and YouGov did not show this.

[heatcharger]

Why do CO and VA keep getting polled together by various polling outlets? FOX, Marist, and now Quinnipiac have had this pattern. Not that I have a problem with it, only further highlights Trump's glaring issue with college-educated whites.

[Rand]

Iowa
Clinton - 47%
Trump - 44%

Clinton - 41%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 12%
Stein - 3%

Colorado
Clinton - 49%
Trump - 39%

Clinton - 41%
Trump - 33%
Johnson - 16%
Stein - 7%

Virginia
Clinton - 50%
Trump - 38%

Clinton - 45%
Trump - 34%
Johnson - 11%
Stein - 5%

http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2373

These numbers should diminish a bit as we approach election day.

Yeah, like they were supposed to finish a week after the DNC when Clinton's bounce was gone. Better say Abracadabra.

[Torie]

These numbers from CO are rather remarkable:

[Holmes]

These numbers from CO are rather remarkable:

Colorado's about to become a no man's land for the Republicans.

[Gass3268]

Why do CO and VA keep getting polled together by various polling outlets? FOX, Marist, and now Quinnipiac have had this pattern. Not that I have a problem with it, only further highlights Trump's glaring issue with college-educated whites.

I like how Marist essentially has the Rust Belt 3 (Iowa, Ohio, & Pennsylvania) and the Sun Belt 4 (Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, & Virginia).

[NOVA Green]

It would make since for Iowa's younger generation to going more republican, I don't think it's purely a Trump phenomenon. Iowa did a sharp trend left due to the farm crisis in the eighties, as these voters die off the Iowa electorate will match its demographics more. Keep in mind that college whites in states with similar culture/ demographics were strongly republican in 2012. (Kansas, Nebraksa, Indiana etc)

Additionally, several important points to note about Iowa, is that it is a state that has net outmigration of college educated voters to elsewhere in the region and country for economic opportunities and seeking more active lifestyles of larger metro areas. The economic profile of the state also doesn't particularly lend itself to an influx of middle-age college "professional class" type workers (Tech sector, software engineers, etc...), so many of the young people that remain are high-school grads, vocational school, and community college grads with deep local home-state roots, that will more closely mirror the demographic, social, and political profile of their respective communities.

Further, Iowa is one of the most dovish/isolationist states in the union on "elective" overseas adventures that is deeply rooted in the collective DNA from WWI, WWII, and more recently Vietnam and Iraq, and this is a state where Trump likely seems like a different kind of Republican than we have seen over the past 3 decades.

Combine that with a more economically protectionist attitude, not only in the agricultural sector (Ethanol?) but also in the manufacturing plants of Eastern Iowa (Caterpillar) as well as the meat processing, bio-sciences, and agricultural sciences, this state is actually a better fit for Trump's unique Republican brand than might immediately meet the eye.

Still, this will likely be a close race regardless of Clinton holding her current 7-8 point lead or dropping down to more like a 2012 Obama lead, in a state that is not particularly dynamic in terms of overall population changes.

[IceSpear]

Why do CO and VA keep getting polled together by various polling outlets? FOX, Marist, and now Quinnipiac have had this pattern. Not that I have a problem with it, only further highlights Trump's glaring issue with college-educated whites.

I like how Marist essentially has the Rust Belt 3 (Iowa, Ohio, & Pennsylvania) and the Sun Belt 4 (Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, & Virginia).

This may be the first time I've ever heard Iowa described as Rust Belt.

[Maxwell]

Iowa
Clinton - 47%
Trump - 44%

Clinton - 41%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 12%
Stein - 3%

Colorado
Clinton - 49%
Trump - 39%

Clinton - 41%
Trump - 33%
Johnson - 16%
Stein - 7%

Virginia
Clinton - 50%
Trump - 38%

Clinton - 45%
Trump - 34%
Johnson - 11%
Stein - 5%

http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2373

These numbers should diminish a bit as we approach election day.

agreed. I would be surprised if both of those candidates retained even a third of what they're polling at now.

[NOVA Green]

Trump is narrowly winning younger voters in Iowa, while Clinton is winning older voters by a slightly larger margin. That's different from almost every other state I've seen, but this is the second poll that has shown this in Iowa.

In Virginia, they are actually tied with folks in military households. That is awful news for Trump in the Hampton Roads area. Virginia Beach could actually flip to Democrats.

This fits with what we have seen from two of the other recent VA polls showing Hillary with anywhere from a +10-+25 lead in the Tidewaters region.

I have always been extremely skeptical of this narrative that Trump is extremely popular among *active duty service members and military households*. This flies in the face of the changing demographics of the US Military over the past 20 years, dramatic increase for Democratic support since '08 with voters <35, as well as county and precinct level results from military base communities.

Where Trump does appear to be performing well is with military veterans, that heavily skew 55+ and Whiter and more Southern than the national average.... (And yes, I know there are a bunch of retired vets living in the Tidewater. )