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  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  MS-Magellan: Trump +15 (+13 in 4-way)
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Author Topic: MS-Magellan: Trump +15 (+13 in 4-way)  (Read 1451 times)
heatcharger
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« on: August 17, 2016, 08:17:29 am »

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/MagellanBR-YP_Poll_Toplines_081616.pdf

Trump - 54%
Clinton - 39%

Trump - 52%
Clinton - 39%
Johnson - 3%
Stein - 0%

Republican pollster so take it with a grain of salt.
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LLR
LongLiveRock
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« Reply #1 on: August 17, 2016, 08:20:40 am »

Holy sh**t the third party numbers are really that low

Also the undecided numbers
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #2 on: August 17, 2016, 08:21:21 am »

This is an interesting discovery by Magellan Wink
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heatcharger
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« Reply #3 on: August 17, 2016, 08:25:55 am »

I am not feeling MS this year.  Trump echoes the Dixiecrats of yore and this is the Dixiecrat heartland after all.  MS should get more interesting if and when the libertarian businessman/CoC types regain control of the party.  Keep in mind that there are incredibly few college whites to swing in MS.

We need a real poll from here, but I agree. The only way this state could potentially flip is if Trump keeps tanking and depresses Republican turnout significantly.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #4 on: August 17, 2016, 08:37:47 am »

MS is basically inelastic - AA voters near maxed out and very few educated white voters for Trump to lose.
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LLR
LongLiveRock
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« Reply #5 on: August 17, 2016, 08:40:48 am »

Mississippi is definitely Trending R
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Dr. RI
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« Reply #6 on: August 17, 2016, 08:51:59 am »

Holy sh**t the third party numbers are really that low

Black Belt always has really low third party performances, at least after the 1960s.
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: August 17, 2016, 09:23:32 am »

This isn't surprising. There really isn't much room for Hillary to grow in Mississippi, since Obama won virtually all black voters there, and "white" is pretty much synonymous with "conservative Republican" in Mississippi.
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OneJ
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« Reply #8 on: August 17, 2016, 09:58:15 am »

This isn't surprising. There really isn't much room for Hillary to grow in Mississippi, since Obama won virtually all black voters there, and "white" is pretty much synonymous with "conservative Republican" in Mississippi.

Honestly, Trump doesn't have much room to grow among White voters either (non-college educated especially).

Poll does seem accurate though. The white proportion is somewhat overrepresented by about 5 points while blacks are underrepresented by about 4 points and other races by 1 point.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #9 on: August 17, 2016, 10:01:44 am »

It's close to the racial divide.

The Republican Party in Mississippi is basically the White party, and the Democratic Party is basically the Black party in Mississippi. The racial divide in Mississippi politics creates some ugly politics -- corrupt machine-boss politics even in hick towns. It's simple politics, but incredibly bad politics.  

The solution to a corrupt or incompetent elected official is ordinarily to vote in someone from the other Party to replace him, but that is impossible when people automatically vote on race instead of integrity and competence.

Unlike such states as Virginia (which is no longer Southern), Florida (likewise), North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina, Texas (as much Western as Southern), and even Tennessee, Mississippi has few of the economic opportunities to attract well-educated Northerners to live there. There might be a few thousand in the suburbs that overflow from Memphis into Mississippi, but that's about it.  

There's nothing wrong with Mississippi politics that miscegenation won't solve. Maybe.

Beggars can't be choosers when it comes to states that rarely get polled, so I will have to take this one.
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Senator Scott🦋
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« Reply #10 on: August 17, 2016, 10:03:45 am »

So Trump could actually reverse the Democratic swing in 2012?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: August 17, 2016, 10:33:20 am »

Mississippi is definitely Trending R

Actually it was one of 6 states where Obama improved his performance in 2012.
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LLR
LongLiveRock
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« Reply #12 on: August 17, 2016, 11:03:54 am »

Mississippi is definitely Trending R

Actually it was one of 6 states where Obama improved his performance in 2012.


I meant in this election
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Ebsy
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« Reply #13 on: August 17, 2016, 11:50:32 am »

Magellan is a notorious junk pollster.
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Flake
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« Reply #14 on: August 17, 2016, 12:18:46 pm »

Mississippi is definitely Trending R

Actually it was one of 6 states where Obama improved his performance in 2012.


I meant in this election

Just talking about swing, it'll definitely trend a little bit to the Democratic candidate, but you're saying that it'll trend Republican because of how inelastic the voters are? I agree.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #15 on: August 17, 2016, 02:09:57 pm »

Holy sh**t the third party numbers are really that low

Black Belt always has really low third party performances, at least after the 1960s.

Not just the Black Belt. It seems like every poll I look at has AA with zero support for Johnson and Stein. "Other" seems to really like third parties, and whites (because of their numbers) help with third party numbers as well.
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Harry
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« Reply #16 on: August 17, 2016, 09:41:33 pm »
« Edited: August 17, 2016, 09:43:04 pm by Damar »

I would expect Trump to win by around 10 points, maybe less in a Hillaryslide. Demographic drift should turn Mississippi blue eventually, but not by 2016.
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RFayette
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« Reply #17 on: August 17, 2016, 10:45:03 pm »

I am not feeling MS this year.  Trump echoes the Dixiecrats of yore and this is the Dixiecrat heartland after all.  MS should get more interesting if and when the libertarian businessman/CoC types regain control of the party.  Keep in mind that there are incredibly few college whites to swing in MS.

Not to mention that if exit polls are correct, postgrad whites voted for Trump in the primaries.  MS whites really are a different breed than just about anywhere else.
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