TX-PPP: Trump +6

[Fargobison]

Lol:

Jews for McMullin
‏@JewsForMcMullin Jews for McMullin Retweeted PublicPolicyPolling
We're only 44% behind in Texas. @tedcruz, please endorse @Evan_McMullin. #VoteYourConscience #ReligiousFreedom

Somebody should inform them that they are also losing to a dead a gorilla in this poll.

[dspNY]

At least an 8 on the Dem happiness scale

[jamestroll]

It is possible that Democrats perform better on the Presidential vote in Texas then Missouri this year. But I doubt it.

I think the state will be quite competitive for Democrats going forward, but with the state GOP standing with Hispanics, it is likely the state stays Republican locally for some time.

[Heisenberg]

About as expected. Trump is an abysmal fit for the state and quite frankly I'm surprised that he manages to lead Clinton there. If TX is within low single digits or if Clinton wins it, this will be a one time thing.

Clinton can't win it, but Cruz, Rubio, or Kasich would be doing better. Trump is certainly not a great fit for Texas, and the GOP needs to do something after this election to appeal to younger voters and make sure Texas Hispanics don't vote like California Hispanics. I agree, if Clinton keeps it close, it will be a one time thing, for now.

[Virginiá]

About as expected. Trump is an abysmal fit for the state and quite frankly I'm surprised that he manages to lead Clinton there. If TX is within low single digits or if Clinton wins it, this will be one time thing.

What part of Clinton leading 60-35 among the under 45 crowd makes you think this will be a one time thing?

Donald Trump

Obama was polling ahead by double digits in Texas among 18-29 and 30-45 in 2012. Granted it was a April PPP poll that was closer than the final result, but I think it's clear Democrats are building support among a new generation of Texans. It would be nice to see a TX exit poll from 2012 but I don't think there were any.

[Brittain33]

This actually reminds me of 1996, when Bob Dole was on the brink of losing Texas. He was polling just as bad with Hispanics as Trump and Perot got 7% of the vote there as well, which hurt Dole even more. In the end, he won the state by 5 despite losing in a landslide nationally. Maybe we'll see a repeat of that this year.

Dems still did quite well in rural east Texas back then, too.

[pbrower2a]

Are the 38 electoral votes worth campaigning for? No. Texas media markets are costly, and if she wins Texas by campaigning there she has spent resources that could have gone into campaigning in Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri. Democratic organization in Texas is practically non-existent except in a few strong-D areas. But Texas has lots of Congressional seats worthy of a challenge. So if there is a marginal Congressional seat with a Republican incumbent, and Hillary Clinton has a chance for a stopover in Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin, or San Antonio...

Texas is roughly the difference between 400 and 440 electoral votes.

[SteveRogers]

Lol:

Jews for McMullin
‏@JewsForMcMullin Jews for McMullin Retweeted PublicPolicyPolling
We're only 44% behind in Texas. @tedcruz, please endorse @Evan_McMullin. #VoteYourConscience #ReligiousFreedom

Lol, McMullin isn't even on the ballot here.

[Indy Texas]

The fact that Clinton would be leading in Texas if only those under age 65 were voting should be terrifying for Republicans.

[Flake]

The fact that Clinton would be leading in Texas if only those under age 65 were voting should be terrifying for Republicans.

It's good to see the young generation of voters to be so progressive (especially in Texas, I mean the under 45 vote is a bigger margin than Obama's vote total with the under 30 demographic!)

[Skye]

Now if this doesn't scare Republicans, I don't know what will.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bellweather for the House, if Clinton comes close to Trump in TX, then House majority will be breaking for the Dems. Otherwise, Trump wins Texas.

[Heisenberg]

Okay, Republicans need to be really scared long-term about this. If they lose their hold on Texas, they are SCREWED with the Electoral College (until PA and some of those states are ready). In 2020 we MUST find a good candidate who will undo the damage Trump is doing to the base and perform well among young people. Clinton won't win Texas, but this should be VERY concerning to the GOP.

[Maxwell]

yas meme queen

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

This is quite the optimistic poll. I'm already looking forward to Texas in the 2028 elections. Hillary should make a quick San Antonio stop with Joaquin and Gallego just to cause a little scare

[NOVA Green]

Wow!!!

Texas is a tough state to poll, but I'll take a B+ PPP over a C+ Dixie strategies any day, plus the numbers look more accurate in terms of Hillary's floor/ceiling considering that this isn't a state where we could expect a huge collapse in Democratic support to a 3rd Party candidate.

68-27 Clinton actually sounds somewhat reasonable among Texas Latinos (Cross-Tab MOE caviat inserted here) for an LV screen, but the challenge for Democrats in Texas has always been the major gap between working-class Latinos with much lower voter registration rates and political participation who vote overwhelmingly Democratic and middle-class and upper-middle class Latinos that have a much higher level of voter registration and vote frequently that are a more marginally Democratic constituency.

Still, this could well be the year that Fort Bend County flips and Harris county moves from narrow Democratic ('08 and '12) to +10 D along with a significant drop in Republican support in more heavily Anglo suburbs/exurbs of Montgomery County, and quite possibly some interesting swings in several counties around DFW and Austin/San Antonio (S.A.).

[pbrower2a]

Donald Trump may have lost the majority of the educated white vote in Texas and Georgia, two of the states in which those populations brought about the shift from D to R in those states and were slower than other such people to swing significantly from R to D. But Trump may have done it.  Obama having maxed out in much of the North and West, we may be seeing where the Romney-to-Clinton voters  are this year in those national polls that have Clinton up anywhere from +9 to +12.. They aren't in California, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, and New York.

[NOVA Green]

Donald Trump may have lost the majority of the educated white vote in Texas and Georgia, two of the states in which those populations brought about the shift from D to R in those states and were slower than other such people to swing significantly from R to D. But Trump may have done it.  Obama having maxed out in much of the North and West, we may be seeing where the Romney-to-Clinton voters  are this year in those national polls that have Clinton up anywhere from +9 to +12.. They aren't in California, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, and New York.

Not convinced that Hillary will win the "educated White vote in Texas", but I agree with your fundamental point regarding this demographic having already shifted heavily Democratic in Presidential Elections in many solid blue states in the country.

There is room for the Democratic Party to expand within this demographic in places where the Republican Party managed to maintain an edge over the past 16 years five GEs, which is where we seem to be seeing the biggest swings based upon statewide polling thus far....

All being said, I still think that college educated Whites in Texas will still vote for Trump, albeit he might well only win with a plurality and not majority.

[Dr. Arch]

Game, set...

[pbrower2a]

Donald Trump may have lost the majority of the educated white vote in Texas and Georgia, two of the states in which those populations brought about the shift from D to R in those states and were slower than other such people to swing significantly from R to D. But Trump may have done it.  Obama having maxed out in much of the North and West, we may be seeing where the Romney-to-Clinton voters  are this year in those national polls that have Clinton up anywhere from +9 to +12.. They aren't in California, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, and New York.

Not convinced that Hillary will win the "educated White vote in Texas", but I agree with your fundamental point regarding this demographic having already shifted heavily Democratic in Presidential Elections in many solid blue states in the country.

There is room for the Democratic Party to expand within this demographic in places where the Republican Party managed to maintain an edge over the past 16 years five GEs, which is where we seem to be seeing the biggest swings based upon statewide polling thus far....

All being said, I still think that college educated Whites in Texas will still vote for Trump, albeit he might well only win with a plurality and not majority.

Hillary Clinton is not going to win the share of the 'educated white vote' that she can expect from similarly-educated black, Hispanic, or Asian vote. If she did, then she would be up 6 in Texas. But note well: under-educated blacks, Hispanics, and Asians have respect for educated successes whom they see as the most trustworthy leaders. If one uses formal education as a proxy for social class and economic success (such is usually so), then we have generally seen no great class divide in the politics of blacks, Hispanics, or Asians*. The class divide has gotten sharp among white people.

It is telling that although Texas voters under 65 split slightly for Hillary Clinton -- but voters over 65 (whiter, more rural, and with less formal education?) split heavily for Donald Trump. This might reflect conservative oldsters retiring to Texas (and Arizona) instead of Florida or staying put. But note also that younger, more educated white people are more cosmopolitan than their not-so-well-educated counterparts. If a clear-cut white, under-educated culture exists, then do well-educated white people fit into it? Probably not.

This may be personal experience, but I consider it illustrative. As a teenager I got moved from the very white rural Midwest to the San Francisco Bay Area, the latter a place of much ethnic diversity. My parents were afraid that I would have trouble adjusting to the ethnic diversity. I had trouble with the cultural divide between kids who took education seriously (whatever their ethnicity) and on the other side the low-life dopers and gang members. I got along well enough with black, Hispanic, and Asian kids who had much the same dreams as I did. I did not get along well with white punks who thought that I had more in common with them because of shared skin color and hair type.   

Fast-forward a little over about forty years... and you find that my experience that I was much more like a middle-class black, Hispanic, or Asian-American than like the typical under-educated white person is what a typical young white adult with a college education has -- except that the well-educated white kid has seen far more ethnic diversity in the mass media. This applies as much in Texas as in California. The observation that Dallas is "Los Angeles without the beach" isn't especially new, as that applies to the car culture and the sorts of entertainment available in the 1980s. But like Houston, San Antonio, and Austin, Dallas is becoming more like Southern California. Such bodes ill for Republicans over the long run in Texas. As the suburbs get older those places that still have some rural characteristics (contrast suburbs of Chicago, Detroit, and Philadelphia) will have aging and often obsolete infrastructure in need of costly replacement and maintenance. As in California, real estate developers did just about everything on the cheap for maximal profits, and people are going to pay for that. Aging single-family housing will be demolished for crowded apartment complexes in which poorer people will have the inevitable enmity with landlords that tenants see as greedy rentiers making easy money.     

It could be that this year, Donald Trump is simply an execrable candidate, and that with a more conventional nominee in 2020 the Republicans will do better in Texas than elsewhere, especially should Hillary Clinton become a failure as President. But this is not worthy of a bet for the Right. Donald Trump is so inept at maintaining a coalition that he is losing a big part of the educated white vote with his mind-assaulting demagoguery. Educated white people may be increasingly voting their culture instead of loyalty to bosses and landlords.  That trend has been slower to take hold in some states (Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, and Texas) than in others (the Northeast and the West Coast); nothing says that it might not reverse.       

     
*"Asians" is a reference to many different and disparate groups.

[Sir Mohamed]

This is horrific news for Mr. Drumpf. The trend in GA and SC is identical. If he’s only up six in TX, he’s in very big trouble. He’ll probably win the state nevertheless, but the GOP could very well get problems in the lone star state on a longer term, though we have to acknowledge that the Trumpster is a bad fit for TX. Bush, Rubio, Cruz or Kasich would be ahead by fair double digits right now.

[Badger]

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Sad. the lack of pariotism of Texas Trump supporters is revolting.