CPD announces 5 debate qualifying polls - UPDATE: Johnson average 7.0%

[Likely Voter]

BTW, on Johnson's official site they are saying his current average is 10.0%. They are using all RV numbers (which is debatable) and using the NBC/Survey Monkey number instead of the NBS/WSJ number (which is lower), which could be an oversight but is probably just them lying to their supporters because it boosts his number. The CPD explicitly says they will use the NBC/WSJ poll (not the NBC/Survey Monkey poll)

[ProudModerate2]

Thank you to Likely Voter, for the continued updates on the average poll numbers for CPD qualification.
8-)

[DavidB.]

Looking like Johnson will not make it at this rate; which is a net positive for Clinton.

How is that a net positive for Clinton? Clinton does better in polls of 4-way races than in polls of 2-way races. It is Trump who should be worried about Johnson.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Looking like Johnson will not make it at this rate; which is a net positive for Clinton.

How is that a net positive for Clinton? Clinton does better in polls of 4-way races than in polls of 2-way races. It is Trump who should be worried about Johnson.

No

[DavidB.]

Looking like Johnson will not make it at this rate; which is a net positive for Clinton.

How is that a net positive for Clinton? Clinton does better in polls of 4-way races than in polls of 2-way races. It is Trump who should be worried about Johnson.

No

Yes, she does, in terms of EV (as opposed to the gap in popular vote).

[Simfan34]

Johnson being in the debates would hurt Trump simply by virtue of alerting the general electorate to his existence. There's a large pool of Republicans who can't brook the thought of voting for Clinton but could potentially go for Johnson.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Looking like Johnson will not make it at this rate; which is a net positive for Clinton.

How is that a net positive for Clinton? Clinton does better in polls of 4-way races than in polls of 2-way races. It is Trump who should be worried about Johnson.

No

Yes, she does, in terms of EV (as opposed to the gap in popular vote).

No. Cherry-picking!

Johnson being in the debates would hurt Trump Clinton simply by virtue of alerting the general electorate to his existence. There's a large pool of Republicans Democrats who can't brook the thought of voting for Clinton Trump but could potentially go for Johnson.

Gut feeling does not count, does it?

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I don't think they should lower the 15% bar, even a little bit. I support Johnson, but if they lower it this time, people will just expect them to lower it more next time. Just stay the course at this point.

[Likely Voter]

New Averages with ABC poll.

LV*
Clinton (D)   43.2
Trump (R)   39.4
Johnson (L)   9.4
Stein (G)   3.3
   
RV   
Clinton (D)   43.2
Trump (R)   37.4
Johnson (L)   10.2
Stein (G)   3.8


*when available, only ABC and CNN have done LV polls so far

[ElectionsGuy]

Unfortunately Johnson's numbers have been so consistent for the past few months that I don't see a drastic increase happening in the next few weeks.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

New Averages with ABC poll.

LV*
Clinton (D)   43.2
Trump (R)   39.4
Johnson (L)   9.4
Stein (G)   3.3

Not sure how you're landing at these numbers. Via RCP (and this site for the ABC poll), I'm seeing for Johnson with LV when avaliable:

CNN: 7%
ABC: 9%
CBS: 10%
NBC: 10%
Fox: 9%

Which computes to 9% even, not 9.4%. I know Johnson claims he's at 12% in CBS, but I can't find the poll where he got that in RCP or Atlas - the most recent thing I see is http://www.cbsnews.com/news/where-do-trump-and-clinton-stand-going-into-the-general-election/, which clearly says he's at 10% in the document at the bottom.

[amdcpus]

New Averages with ABC poll.

LV*
Clinton (D)   43.2
Trump (R)   39.4
Johnson (L)   9.4
Stein (G)   3.3

Not sure how you're landing at these numbers. Via RCP (and this site for the ABC poll), I'm seeing for Johnson with LV when avaliable:

CNN: 7%
ABC: 9%
CBS: 10%
NBC: 10%
Fox: 9%

Which computes to 9% even, not 9.4%. I know Johnson claims he's at 12% in CBS, but I can't find the poll where he got that in RCP or Atlas - the most recent thing I see is http://www.cbsnews.com/news/where-do-trump-and-clinton-stand-going-into-the-general-election/, which clearly says he's at 10% in the document at the bottom.

Last two CBS polls were CBS only, he was at 12% in the last CBS/NYT.

[Hermit For Peace]

Aleppo.

[Hermit For Peace]

Johnson always looks as though he's on drugs. And like he just got out of bed. Even Trump looks more Presidential than Gary. That's what I think.

[Devout Centrist]

Honestly, if we open the debates, we're just going to have a guy who (though I admire) will flub every foreign policy question and a crazy woman who believes wifi fries kid's brains.

[ursulahx]

Have the CPD been any more specific on when the cut-off date will be for consideration? Seems like Johnson's running out of time.

[Ebsy]

Have the CPD been any more specific on when the cut-off date will be for consideration? Seems like Johnson's running out of time.

There was never a chance that Johnson was going to reach 15%, so I'm not sure why everyone is so concerned about just which polls will be used.

[Likely Voter]

Have the CPD been any more specific on when the cut-off date will be for consideration? Seems like Johnson's running out of time.

They said "mid September". My bet is that means Monday, September 19th, one week before.  So Johnson has 8 days.  I suspect only 2 or maybe 3 qualifying polls will come out during that time. CBS and NBC haven't releases polls since early August.  FOX did one the week before Memorial day so they might squeeze one in before the debate, but maybe not before the CPD cutoff. 

It's pretty much impossible that Johnson is going to make it, but I will keep track never the less. 

[The Other Castro]

Johnson/Weld campaign is running this full page ad in the NYT tomorrow:

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Johnson/Weld campaign is running this full page ad in the NYT tomorrow:

Good move. I don't think, they let Johnson in, but it'll give a PR and discussion that he needs

[Likely Voter]

Update with CBS/NYT poll.

LV (when available)
Clinton (D)   43.0
Trump (R)   40.2
Johnson (L)   8.6
Stein (G)   3.4

RV
Clinton (D)   42.8
Trump (R)   37.6
Johnson (L)   10.0
Stein (G)   4.0

Notes:
- Average includes ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX and CNN
- With new CBS/NYT adding Stein, now all polls are 4-way
- FOX and NBC polls RV only (both are also pre Labor Day Wkd)

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Have CPD said something since the announcement? If they changed the rules or something.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Have CPD said something since the announcement? If they changed the rules or something.

They haven't said anything regarding the rules since their august comment where they suggested they might be willing to round up a 14.5%.

[Buffalo Bill]

Yes well they need to be able to make up their own questions.

[ProudModerate2]

Update with CBS/NYT poll.

LV (when available)
Clinton (D)   43.0
Trump (R)   40.2
Johnson (L)   8.6
Stein (G)   3.4

RV
Clinton (D)   42.8
Trump (R)   37.6
Johnson (L)   10.0
Stein (G)   4.0

Notes:
- Average includes ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX and CNN
- With new CBS/NYT adding Stein, now all polls are 4-way
- FOX and NBC polls RV only (both are also pre Labor Day Wkd)

Thanks for the update.
Likely Voter, are we still missing an update that we expect (say by Tue Sept 20th) from one of the 5 media outlets/polls (ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX and CNN) ?
Or does it look like we have them all, for CPD consideration and "deadline" ?