WA- Elway Poll: Clinton +19
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  WA- Elway Poll: Clinton +19
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Author Topic: WA- Elway Poll: Clinton +19  (Read 4037 times)
Devout Centrist
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« Reply #25 on: August 15, 2016, 07:55:21 PM »

Something that makes me not regret clicking on this child board.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #26 on: August 15, 2016, 08:03:08 PM »


Arizona, Georgia, and Missouri have been polled a lot, and they are not supposed to be close in a close election. Obama won Indiana in 2008. South Carolina has never been close for Obama.

Then there are Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio.  Big trouble for Trump in that group.

When Trump is losing Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia by low-single-digit margins, then Trump is in huge trouble.

He is very close in Iowa and Nevada.

...I'd be interested in statewide polls of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska.... don't forget Alaska.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #27 on: August 15, 2016, 08:12:39 PM »


Arizona, Georgia, and Missouri have been polled a lot, and they are not supposed to be close in a close election. Obama won Indiana in 2008. South Carolina has never been close for Obama.

Then there are Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio.  Big trouble for Trump in that group.

When Trump is losing Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia by low-single-digit margins, then Trump is in huge trouble.

He is very close in Iowa and Nevada.

...I'd be interested in statewide polls of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska.... don't forget Alaska.
That's my point. Clinton +19 in Washington is good, but not exactly exciting.
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dspNY
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« Reply #28 on: August 15, 2016, 09:44:43 PM »


Arizona, Georgia, and Missouri have been polled a lot, and they are not supposed to be close in a close election. Obama won Indiana in 2008. South Carolina has never been close for Obama.

Then there are Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio.  Big trouble for Trump in that group.

When Trump is losing Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia by low-single-digit margins, then Trump is in huge trouble.

He is very close in Iowa and Nevada.

...I'd be interested in statewide polls of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska.... don't forget Alaska.
That's my point. Clinton +19 in Washington is good, but not exactly exciting.

It is a greater margin than either of President Obama's victories in Washington State
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #29 on: August 15, 2016, 09:49:30 PM »


Arizona, Georgia, and Missouri have been polled a lot, and they are not supposed to be close in a close election. Obama won Indiana in 2008. South Carolina has never been close for Obama.

Then there are Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio.  Big trouble for Trump in that group.

When Trump is losing Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia by low-single-digit margins, then Trump is in huge trouble.

He is very close in Iowa and Nevada.

...I'd be interested in statewide polls of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska.... don't forget Alaska.
That's my point. Clinton +19 in Washington is good, but not exactly exciting.

It is a greater margin than either of President Obama's victories in Washington State
Which is good, but I love the polls that show the Donald tied in Indiana or Clinton ahead in Arizona. If there was a PPP poll that found Trump up by only 9 in WV, I would consider that exciting.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #30 on: August 15, 2016, 09:51:40 PM »

xingkerui could expand on this a little more since he's got a Washington State avatar and NOVA Green could with his Oregon avatar but Clinton +19 is almost certainly a 12 point lead at the worst in Oregon

I'm happy to live in such a freedom state! Smiley

People claiming that Washington will at least trend toward Trump are making the mistake of assuming that all white voters are trending Republican. That's not the case in the Pacific Northwest. Washington and Oregon have trended Democratic, since nearly all of the population growth has been in the Seattle/Portland areas. Trump is a horrible fit for Washington, and he'll get annihilated west of the Cascades. He'll win most of the ultra conservatives in Eastern WashingtonWestern Idaho, but there's also a sizable Latino population in areas like Yakima, so that could be helping Clinton even more. Even though Obama was probably a slightly better fit for Washington than Hillary, I expect her to win by more, simply because we hate Trump so much here.

I'd say that NOVAGreen could tell us the most about Oregon, but I'd expect most of what I said to be true to an extent there as well, and I'd be stunned if Hillary didn't win by double digits.

Oregon is very similar on all counts, except maybe a lower Hispanic proportion in central Oregon, and a lower percentage of population east of the Cascades (in Oregon, about 13.1% of the population is in counties east of the Cascades, including Hood River County, whereas in Washington, about 20.0% of the population is in counties east of the Cascades).

There are key similarities and significant differences between Oregon and Washington...

One of the most obvious differences is the proportion of voters concentrated in the largest urban area. In 2012 52% of Washington GE votes were cast in Metro-Seattle-Tacoma (Using a very narrow definition that includes only 3 counties King, Snohomish, and Pierce). One could easily expand Metro Seattle-Tacoma to include Kitsap, Mason, Island, and Thurston.

By Contrast, although Metro-Portland (Excluding Clark County WA) has a huge chunk of total statewide votes, slightly less than 45% of statewide votes were cast in the classic Tri-Counties (Multnomah, Washington, and Clackamas).

Oregon has a much larger population located outside of the major Metro area than Washington State, hence some of the PVI variance over the past few election cycles.

For example, the PVI in Washington State actually trended Democrat between '08 and '12 versus, the national average, wherebye Oregon actually trended slightly Republican during the same election cycle.

That being said, Multnomah County Oregon (Portland + Gresham) that accounts for 20% of the state population is a much more Democratic County than Kings County (Seattle+ Eastside and Southside suburbs).

McCain and Romney both managed to garner about 28% of the vote in King County in '08/'12. This "A Rated Poll" appears to indicate that Trump only has about 14% of the total vote at this time, essentially a 50% collapse of what is left of the "base Republican vote".

If we were to extrapolate this to Multnomah County, where both McCain and Romney garnered only 21% of the total vote. If these polling patterns hold, that would account to only 10% of voters in the largest county in the state.

Now, we move onto Washington County, one of the wealthiest counties in the state home to the most diverse ethnic electorate in the state, that used to be a "rock-ribbed Republican" 60-40 Bush Sr back in '88 and is now more like a 60-40 Democrat county (13.3% of '12 electorate). Trump barely won 55% of the vote running unopposed in the primaries, and quite frankly I would not be surprised to see it going Clinton +25 this election cycle.

Let's move downstate....

I posted on several other threads, namely the Oregon Democratic Party thread, regarding the complete destruction of the Hillary '08 versus '16 Primary coalition, where she got destroyed in "downstate" counties against Bernie that overwhelmingly supported her in the '08 Dem Primaries.

My major comments consisted of collapse of the Hillary '08 coalition in downstate in heavily Working Class communities, as well as a significant improvement in middle and upper-middle class Democratic  populations in (Jackson, Deschutes, Benton, and Metro-PDX) in that primary.

Despite the Hillbots (You know who you are Wink ) I said the biggest threat to Hillary was not at the hands of a small number of straw-men Bernie-Bros, but rather solid Democrats >35 years who had major concerns regarding the direction of the party, that felt abandoned over the past two decades (Despite overwhelmingly supporting Obama in the '08 GE).

I still envision that Trump might make minor inroads over McCain '08 numbers in parts of Southern Oregon (Josephine. Coos, & Douglas Counties), as well as potentially in certain parts of the Mid-Valley (Linn County), but it does seem that if we use current national numbers, Oregon actually might have a record level of support for a Democratic Presidential candidate potentially even surpassing LBJ in '64....

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #31 on: August 15, 2016, 10:27:31 PM »

One item that I did not mention, is that the most Republican counties in Oregon are actually the most Latino counties in the State....

Eastern Oregon counties:

Malheur Co (69% Romney/McCain in '08/'16)- 33% Latino
Morrow Co (59-65 Romney/McCain in '08/'16)- 34% Latino
Umatilla Co (60-62 McCain/Romney in '08/'16)- 25% Latino


Central Oregon Counties:

Marion Co (47-50% McCain/Romney in '08/'16)- 25% Latino
Yamhill Co (49-51% McCain/ Romney in '08/'16)- 15% Latino
Polk Co (49-51% McCain/ Romney in '08/'16)- 13% Latino

Now, all being said the Latino-American population in Oregon is less established, and with significantly lower voting turnout rates than most other communities within the state....

We did see the actual results in the Oregon Democratic Primary in heavily Latino precincts, that voted above city-wide average in Salem, Cornelius, Klamath Falls, Hood River for Bernie Sanders, but in other heavily Latino precincts (Woodburn and parts of East Portland more heavily Hillary than the statewide averages).

All being said, I expect Trump to slightly overperform in several Southern Oregon Counties (Douglas, Josephine, and Coos), certain parts of the Mid-Valley (Linn) and several parts of Eastern Oregon, but his downstate vote improvements over Romney/McCain will likely be offset, by decreased performance in heavily Latino counties of Eastern Oregon, wealthier "high-growth" upper-middle class California retirees in Jackson and Deschutes, with an off-set in most of the Central Willamette Valley from marginal increase among older Anglos, offset by younger and newer voters (Polk, Yamhill, and Marion).

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Mallow
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« Reply #32 on: August 16, 2016, 12:53:19 AM »
« Edited: August 16, 2016, 08:03:07 AM by Mallow »


...

One of the most obvious differences is the proportion of voters concentrated in the largest urban area. In 2012 52% of Washington GE votes were cast in Metro-Seattle-Tacoma (Using a very narrow definition that includes only 3 counties King, Snohomish, and Pierce). One could easily expand Metro Seattle-Tacoma to include Kitsap, Mason, Island, and Thurston.

By Contrast, although Metro-Portland (Excluding Clark County WA) has a huge chunk of total statewide votes, slightly less than 45% of statewide votes were cast in the classic Tri-Counties (Multnomah, Washington, and Clackamas).

Oregon has a much larger population located outside of the major Metro area than Washington State, hence some of the PVI variance over the past few election cycles.

...


I would point out that the Seattle-Tacoma MSA includes the three counties you mentioned, but the Portland MSA includes Multnomah, Washington, Clackamas, Columbia, and Yamhill counties in Oregon. The former includes 51% of Washington's population, and the latter 48%, which isn't that big a difference.

Also of note, Lane County does not have a good analog in Washington--it is one of Oregon's more populous counties (the most populous outside the Portland metro area), but is very liberal. The most populous counties in Washington outside of the Seattle area are Spokane County and Clark County, which both consistently vote to the right of the nation. The closest analog to Lane County in Washington is probably Thurston County, but it has a lower population than Lane, and therefore accounts for a much lower percentage of Washington's population than Lane does of Oregon's.

The point I'm making is that the percentage of the population in the "very liberal" Oregon counties (Multnomah, Washington, Lane, Benton, Lincoln, Clatsop, and Hood River) is very close to the percentage in the "very liberal" Washington counties (King, Snohomish, Thurston, Whatcom, Jefferson, and San Juan), at ~48% and ~47%, respectively. I would concede that Oregon has a higher proportion of its population in lean-R territory (~25% in counties that gave Romney between 48% and 53% of the vote in 2012) than Washington (~16%). As for very conservative counties, it's not a very big difference... ~10% in Oregon, and ~8% in Washington.
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