In retrospect, which were realigning elections?

[Hope For A New Era]

After seeing how 2020 has played out, here's the argument I'll make.

1932 should not be the election we use to define a realigning election. 1932 is an anomaly.

Why is it an anomaly?

Because Carter and Trump, the two most recent "collapse" presidents, were only really hit especially hard by crises during year 4.

Hoover was hit during year 1. The country then had to struggle through 3 years of his poor management of the Great Depression, with no outlet in the form of an election, allowing the Democratic momentum to keep building. The result was extreme Democratic dominance for 20 years and lingering strength for a further 30.

Most realignments are not so clear-cut and decisive.

What we know as the Reagan Era has very fuzzy edges. Steps. 1968, then the big step in 1980, then 1994, then 2000. Bush's presidency was when the coalition of fiscal conservatives + the religious right was at its most dominant in American politics, culture, and society.

The first step into the new era was 2008. 2020, apparently, is step two. Step three is...2034?

[Hope For A New Era]

After seeing how 2020 has played out, here's the argument I'll make.

1932 should not be the election we use to define a realigning election. 1932 is an anomaly.

Why is it an anomaly?

Because Carter and Trump, the two most recent "collapse" presidents, were only really hit especially hard by crises during year 4.

Hoover was hit during year 1. The country then had to struggle through 3 years of his poor management of the Great Depression, with no outlet in the form of an election, allowing the Democratic momentum to keep building. The result was extreme Democratic dominance for 20 years and lingering strength for a further 30.

Most realignments are not so clear-cut and decisive.

What we know as the Reagan Era has very fuzzy edges. Steps. 1968, then the big step in 1980, then 1994, then 2000. Bush's presidency was when the coalition of fiscal conservatives + the religious right was at its most dominant in American politics, culture, and society.

The first step into the new era was 2008. 2020, apparently, is step two. Step three is...2034?

I think with 2020 being the way it was, 2008 will be seen as the "big step" of this new era, with 2020 being one of many small steps.

It seems like 2020 involves more change in coalitions, though?

2008 is flashy and dramatic, but it's not really anything new. It's the combination of some of the older D coalition parts (look at all those counties Obama won in West Virginia) plus one big new thing, some suburban areas (a change that was hinted at in 2004). It's very much a 1968 - Nixon had all the traditional Republican pieces, plus one big new thing, some white southerners (a change that first began to show itself in 1964).

2020 seems to involve much more change under the surface, even though the electoral map doesn't look that different - 2016's huge loss of rural/WWC support for Democrats is proven to not be a fluke, and actually becomes even more extreme in many areas, while Republicans collapse spectacularly in suburbs.
Also, there's another classic sign of realignment: the suburbs voting D for president and R downballot, and the rurals voting R for president and D downballot. Missouri actually has a really good example of this. Galloway did better than Biden in the ancestrally-Democratic Leadbelt, and worse than him in suburban counties like Platte, Clay, and St. Charles.