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2016
2016 is not a realignment election. 1976 to 2008 suggests a huge realignment in stages, and 2020 looks more like 2012 than anything else. Trump did not win an overwhelming win of the Electoral College and in fact lost the popular vote. If 2016 were a genuine realignment, then Trump would have won decisively in 2020.
2020 is of course not a realigning election.
2020 doesn’t look like 2012 at all. The popular vote margin is similar but the states are very different. If this was really a return to 2012 then Biden would have won WI/MI/PA by more than a point or two and not be competitive in states like AZ and GA.
The 2020 election is largely a continuation of the trends from 2016, with the Sun Belt becoming more left-leaning and the Rust belt being less (just look at how far OH and IA have gone), as well as more suburban counties flipping blue. The Democrats just did better this time than last time. The only difference from 2016 in terms of trends are the losses in urban Florida counties and south Texas.
Poll
