In retrospect, which were realigning elections?

[dw93]

2000 to me was more of an "end result" of a gradual realignment that took place between 1964 and 1996, with 1964, 1980, 1992, and 1994 being the main realigning years, and 1996 being the last hurrah for the Democrats in the Appalachian South. 1968 was just a continuation of a trend that started in 1964 , which was the south breaking hard from the Democrats nationally. 1992 was sort of a counter realignment, if you will, to the realignments of 1964 and 1980 as 1992 was when Rockefeller Republicans and Northern Suburbanites went for the Democrats, not fitting into a more Christian Dominated, culturally southern/conservative Republican party. 1994 was the year where the Republicans finally realigned the south at the congressional level,at least the deep south anyway as states like AR, WV, and KY were willing to vote for the Democrats at the state and local level even into the early 2010s.

I'd also argue that 2008 and even 2016 were also a continuation of trends that started in the 2 to 5 decades ago (affluent suburbanites in the Sun Belt going Dem, Appalachia going solidly R at the state and local level).

[dw93]

After seeing how 2020 has played out, here's the argument I'll make.

1932 should not be the election we use to define a realigning election. 1932 is an anomaly.

Why is it an anomaly?

Because Carter and Trump, the two most recent "collapse" presidents, were only really hit especially hard by crises during year 4.

Hoover was hit during year 1. The country then had to struggle through 3 years of his poor management of the Great Depression, with no outlet in the form of an election, allowing the Democratic momentum to keep building. The result was extreme Democratic dominance for 20 years and lingering strength for a further 30.

Most realignments are not so clear-cut and decisive.

What we know as the Reagan Era has very fuzzy edges. Steps. 1968, then the big step in 1980, then 1994, then 2000. Bush's presidency was when the coalition of fiscal conservatives + the religious right was at its most dominant in American politics, culture, and society.

The first step into the new era was 2008. 2020, apparently, is step two. Step three is...2034?

I think with 2020 being the way it was, 2008 will be seen as the "big step" of this new era, with 2020 being one of many small steps.