Statilius the Epicurean
Thersites
Junior Chimp
Posts: 5,607
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« on: December 01, 2020, 01:19:35 AM » |
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I don't believe in 'realigning elections', but just for fun...
Obviously 1980. Ever since Democrats have never been able to sweep the South, and Republicans have never needed to carry California.
1994 is critical but it was mostly the breakthrough of the Reagan Revolution at Congressional level, being the first midterm since Reagan under a Democratic president.
2000 was important for Appalachian whites flipping Republican but I'm not sure any other demographics moved significantly.
2016 may be considered a realigning election by future generations IMO. Trump broke the 'Blue Wall' and won states not carried by Republicans since 1988 thanks to an epic Democratic collapse in the rural white vote, this time in the Midwest (and Northeast).
2020 cemented the 2016 trend of white rurals, plus added a new swing of suburban educateds esp. in the South, who had failed to trend as anticipated in 2016 (hence Clinton's loss).
If people are still talking about realigining elections in 60 years time, I suspect they'll be saying 1980 up to 2016 was the Reagan party system, and 2016 - ?? is something new, where Republicans start depending on the Upper Midwest and Democrats begin to centre on the South for the first time since Carter.
(Or maybe Biden is a successful President who tampers down the culture war and brings back white rural voters to the Democratic Party, while suburban voters trend back to the Republicans without Trump on the ballot. Who knows.)
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