NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton leading in CO (+14/+12), FL (+5), NC (+9), VA (+13/+12)

[amdcpus]

In Colorado, Clinton leads Trump by 12 points, 41 percent to 29 percent, with Johnson at 15 percent and Stein at 6 percent.

In Florida, the Democrat is ahead of her GOP opponent by five points, 41 percent to 36 percent, with Johnson at 9 percent and Stein at 4 percent.

In the four-way North Carolina contest, it's Clinton at 45 percent, Trump at 36 percent, Johnson at 9 percent and Stein at 2 percent.

And in Virginia, Clinton gets 43 percent, Trump gets 31 percent, Johnson gets 12 percent and Stein gets 5 percent.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/polls-clinton-running-table-key-battlegrounds-n629136

[amdcpus]

We need to start using the 4-way race numbers as the topline. At least 3-way. Johnson's support isn't dissipating - it's growing.

Agreed. This is very different from previous elections as the third party candidate, Johnson this time, is actually growing not falling in the polls. He numbers in each of these 4 state polls from NBC/Marist/WSJ rose 2% compared to their last polls 3 weeks ago. (7% in FL and NC, 10% in VA, 13% in CO).

[amdcpus]

With Johnson up 15% in Colorado, he will have to be accepted into the debates.

Except that's not the rule. It's 15% in specific nationwide polls. He won't get in. Objectively, he's running at around 5-10% in most national polls.

I have nothing to say about these polls, except it's RV and Marist seems to skewed a few points to the left this cycle. I haven't gotten a look at the internals.

It doesn't look like there has been much movement since they last polled in July.

This is objectively wrong. Johnson's highest in the national polls that will be used:

CNN: 13%
FOX: 12%
CBS: 12%
NBC:11%
ABC: 8%

11.2% average.