SC-PPP: Trump +2

[NOVA Green]

Margins Spread • Georgia vs. South Carolina
• 2004: 0.48
• 2008: 3.78
• 2012: 2.67

Average 2.31

This SC poll does make sense considering what we have seen out of recent Georgia polls...

I thought the main argument as to why SC would not be competitive anytime soon had to do with a relatively inelastic electorate, where more liberal Northern Coastal transplants are offset by "country club" Republican types, frequently from other Southern states.

What % of the White vote would Hillary have to garner in SC to potentially flip the state?

Right now this poll indicates she is at 20% and a significant number of undecided White voters, that typically break Republican closer to election day (Although 2016 might be an exception).

[NOVA Green]

Margins Spread • Georgia vs. South Carolina
• 2004: 0.48
• 2008: 3.78
• 2012: 2.67

Average 2.31

This SC poll does make sense considering what we have seen out of recent Georgia polls...

I thought the main argument as to why SC would not be competitive anytime soon had to do with a relatively inelastic electorate, where more liberal Northern Coastal transplants are offset by "country club" Republican types, frequently from other Southern states.

What % of the White vote would Hillary have to garner in SC to potentially flip the state?

Right now this poll indicates she is at 20% and a significant number of undecided White voters, that typically break Republican closer to election day (Although 2016 might be an exception).

Not implausible, but remember: South Carolina was very good for Trump in the primaries. He won just about every county except for Columbia and Charleston on the coast and took every delegate.

There's little reason to think that against that backdrop, the country-club types will defect en masse, except in Columbia. While there are still some traditional Southern country club-types in Charleston, there's also a good amount of military and retired military.

Considering that Lexington County (Suburban Columbia) was one of McCain's best counties in the state in '08 in terms of total vote margin (+41k McCain and 68-30%) plus Richland (Columbia Co.) was one of Obama '08s best (+50k Obama 64-35%) in a 50% Anglo County it does seem that there is room to expand significantly among "country club" Republican types.

Also, I suspect there is room to Hillary to expand over Obama '08 numbers in Horry county to keep down Trump margins, and possibly even flip Beaufort and Georgetown on the Carolina Coast.

I get your point on Charleston regarding military retirees, but am not sold on Trump support among active military, considering outside of career military, that population skews relatively young and is extremely ethnically diverse.

I do see Trump doing extremely well in the major populations of NW SC, because of the economic protectionist message and waves of jobs losses in the textile sector back in the days, and more recent losses in the assembled furniture industry. There could be some offset though in the form of auto-sector related jobs that has changed the composition of the labor force in that part of the state.

[NOVA Green]

This is crazy, especially when you consider PPP has been rather Trump friendly.

Yeah, NC only being 3 points to the left of SC? Not buying it. One or both of these are wrong.

Well we do have (3) recent data points on Georgia to work off of, but only one poll of NC and SC each, so limited data to extrapolate from for the latter two states.

The NC/GA comparison does seem weirder than the GA/SC polls however but agreed that the Carolina's are still large question marks until we have more post-convention data to work from.

[NOVA Green]

I am still waiting on yet another poll for Mississippi. ZZzzzzzzzzzzzz.

Seriously though. Compared to other elections, this one is strange. If South Carolina is in play, this could suggest that Mississippi is at least a less than 10 point margin race. Trump is in serious trouble if he can't win these two states by a comfortable margin by at least 10.

For example, if you take a look at the MS Mason-Dixon poll that was done throughout late March, 66% of respondents were white while 31% were black. In 2012, the Magnolia state's electorate was about 60% white and 36% black. This means, there is a noticeable amount of probability that of all places, Mississippi is a battleground state and joins the "New South" voting bloc along with Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia.

Anyways, this South Carolina poll blew me away and I did not expect it to be that close!

We are all waiting on Mississippi (as well as Texas)

I wish more of these polls of Southern states actually provided regional cross-tabs (Understanding the MOE problems).

Where is Mississippi is there room for expansion of the Obama '08 coalition (Harrison, DeSoto, Rankin???) based upon what we are seeing right now *at this point in the race* among White/Anglo voters in the state?

Where in the state is there possibly room for Trump to expand the Republican coalition without increased African-American support (Which doesn't be to seem the case nationally based upon the polling we have seen thus far)?

In contrast, Hillary has only room to improve from Obama '08 numbers in many Southern states, and polls we are seeing from GA and SC seem to indicate that there are many McCain/Romney Republicans sitting on the fence, or possibly even crossing over to vote Dem because they can't bring themselves to support Trump.

[NOVA Green]

Welcome back former President Griffin!!!

Appreciate your insights as always into the changing political Demographics of the South-East!

Sounds totally plausible and much more succinctly and backed with data than anything I posted...

So what national margins do you think could cause NC,GA, and SC to flip in that order outside of massive external investment in terms of resources?

[NOVA Green]

The exact same state that voted for Romney handily will no longer be viewed as a Southern oasis of White trash and bigotry, OH NO: Atlas will now view SC as a cool coastal state with neat cities and nice beaches!!  Because you aren't a cool place unless you vote Democrat!

I always enjoyed my time in South Carolina, not sure if you have ever been, but it seems like you are setting you are setting up a strawman argument on the thread, where I haven't seen a single post stereotyping South Carolina....

Post a map if you please of the 2016 November outcomes in SC and explain why and not freak out on non-existent stereotypes (At least not on this thread).

Sounds like you need a sip of bourbon and a cigar and chill man.

[NOVA Green]

This really isn't too shocking. Lots of establishment Republicans live along the coast with me, and a lot of them do not like Trump and will likely either sit out the presidential election or hold their nose for Hillary.

Near Myrtle Beach? If so then SC is really in play because that area is staunch Repub

That was one of the areas that I was thinking of when asking about the "country club Republican" vote, as well as Beaufort County possibly flipping this year...