SC-PPP: Trump +2

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

This really isn't too shocking. Lots of establishment Republicans live along the coast with me, and a lot of them do not like Trump and will likely either sit out the presidential election or hold their nose for Hillary.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

This really isn't too shocking. Lots of establishment Republicans live along the coast with me, and a lot of them do not like Trump and will likely either sit out the presidential election or hold their nose for Hillary.

Near Myrtle Beach? If so then SC is really in play because that area is staunch Repub

I'm in Charleston, which usually goes Democratic but the GOP gets 45% or so. This year i expect it to be a lot less than that. Myrtle may trend hard left too, but we'll have to see.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

This really isn't too shocking. Lots of establishment Republicans live along the coast with me, and a lot of them do not like Trump and will likely either sit out the presidential election or hold their nose for Hillary.

Near Myrtle Beach? If so then SC is really in play because that area is staunch Repub

I'm in Charleston, which usually goes Democratic but the GOP gets 45% or so. This year i expect it to be a lot less than that. Myrtle may trend hard left too, but we'll have to see.

Romney did even better than that in Charleston County. It's about a D+6 county relative to the state. (I tried to do a quick read of geographic terminology for SC.) If a poll like this is accurate, I'd imagine Hillary would have to be overperforming in the Low Country and in heavy African-American areas including Columbia.

On the surface, it would seem like Greenville and Spartanburg and that general area isn't prime territory for Democratic overperformance. I do imagine that area is probably particularly religious and I'd bet that the churches do a lot of the work for Republicans in terms of getting out the vote. I'm sure Trump will do great in that area, but I have to wonder how particularly enamored the clergy is with Trump. Now, like I basically said, I'm not entirely familiar with South Carolina in that sense, but would I be correct in thinking that a perfect storm for a Hillary victory in SC would be high turnout among blacks, winning over a significant number of college-educated whites (such as County Club Republicans) in the Low Country, and depressed turnout in the very religious and socially conservative Greenville and Spartanburg area (particularly SC-03 and SC-04)?

(Fwiw, on a sidenote, I just remembered during my research of SC politics how particularly catastrophic 2010 was for Democrats in seeing John Spratt defeated.)

Romney played well here for the most part and was able to get some of the Republican votes that Obama picked up in 2008. I anticipate Trump will bleed support in that area because we all know he won't get 92% of Republicans like Romney did.