SC-PPP: Trump +2

[Wisconsin+17]

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Newt won the exact same counties that Trump won, plus Newt won 42 percent of the South Carolina vote.

You've convinced me that Newt > Trump.

[NOVA Green]

Margins Spread • Georgia vs. South Carolina
• 2004: 0.48
• 2008: 3.78
• 2012: 2.67

Average 2.31

This SC poll does make sense considering what we have seen out of recent Georgia polls...

I thought the main argument as to why SC would not be competitive anytime soon had to do with a relatively inelastic electorate, where more liberal Northern Coastal transplants are offset by "country club" Republican types, frequently from other Southern states.

What % of the White vote would Hillary have to garner in SC to potentially flip the state?

Right now this poll indicates she is at 20% and a significant number of undecided White voters, that typically break Republican closer to election day (Although 2016 might be an exception).

Not implausible, but remember: South Carolina was very good for Trump in the primaries. He won just about every county except for Columbia and Charleston on the coast and took every delegate.

There's little reason to think that against that backdrop, the country-club types will defect en masse, except in Columbia. While there are still some traditional Southern country club-types in Charleston, there's also a good amount of military and retired military.

Considering that Lexington County (Suburban Columbia) was one of McCain's best counties in the state in '08 in terms of total vote margin (+41k McCain and 68-30%) plus Richland (Columbia Co.) was one of Obama '08s best (+50k Obama 64-35%) in a 50% Anglo County it does seem that there is room to expand significantly among "country club" Republican types.

Also, I suspect there is room to Hillary to expand over Obama '08 numbers in Horry county to keep down Trump margins, and possibly even flip Beaufort and Georgetown on the Carolina Coast.

I get your point on Charleston regarding military retirees, but am not sold on Trump support among active military, considering outside of career military, that population skews relatively young and is extremely ethnically diverse.

I do see Trump doing extremely well in the major populations of NW SC, because of the economic protectionist message and waves of jobs losses in the textile sector back in the days, and more recent losses in the assembled furniture industry. There could be some offset though in the form of auto-sector related jobs that has changed the composition of the labor force in that part of the state.

[IceSpear]

This is crazy, especially when you consider PPP has been rather Trump friendly.

Yeah, NC only being 3 points to the left of SC? Not buying it. One or both of these are wrong.

[IceSpear]

Sponsored by the SC Dem. Party ?

Probably means Trump leads by 7 ...

Didn't you just post a poll sponsored by Breitbart? Pretty sure the SCDP is more credible of a sponsor.

[OneJ]

I am still waiting on yet another poll for Mississippi. ZZzzzzzzzzzzzz.

Seriously though. Compared to other elections, this one is strange. If South Carolina is in play, this could suggest that Mississippi is at least a less than 10 point margin race. Trump is in serious trouble if he can't win these two states by a comfortable margin by at least 10.

For example, if you take a look at the MS Mason-Dixon poll that was done throughout late March, 66% of respondents were white while 31% were black. In 2012, the Magnolia state's electorate was about 60% white and 36% black. This means, there is a noticeable amount of probability that of all places, Mississippi is a battleground state and joins the "New South" voting bloc along with Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia.

Anyways, this South Carolina poll blew me away and I did not expect it to be that close! if there is anything that this election has taught me, it is to always expect the unexpected.

[NOVA Green]

This is crazy, especially when you consider PPP has been rather Trump friendly.

Yeah, NC only being 3 points to the left of SC? Not buying it. One or both of these are wrong.

Well we do have (3) recent data points on Georgia to work off of, but only one poll of NC and SC each, so limited data to extrapolate from for the latter two states.

The NC/GA comparison does seem weirder than the GA/SC polls however but agreed that the Carolina's are still large question marks until we have more post-convention data to work from.

[Seriously?]

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Newt won the exact same counties that Trump won, plus Newt won 42 percent of the South Carolina vote.

You've convinced me that Newt > Trump.

Newt had three challengers. Trump had six. Do the math on how the vote gets split.

[Suburbia]

Clinton can make inroads in South Carolina. The black vote delivered for her, she earned it by talking about criminal justice and economic issues, and she can do well in the Charleston area.

[NOVA Green]

I am still waiting on yet another poll for Mississippi. ZZzzzzzzzzzzzz.

Seriously though. Compared to other elections, this one is strange. If South Carolina is in play, this could suggest that Mississippi is at least a less than 10 point margin race. Trump is in serious trouble if he can't win these two states by a comfortable margin by at least 10.

For example, if you take a look at the MS Mason-Dixon poll that was done throughout late March, 66% of respondents were white while 31% were black. In 2012, the Magnolia state's electorate was about 60% white and 36% black. This means, there is a noticeable amount of probability that of all places, Mississippi is a battleground state and joins the "New South" voting bloc along with Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia.

Anyways, this South Carolina poll blew me away and I did not expect it to be that close!

We are all waiting on Mississippi (as well as Texas)

I wish more of these polls of Southern states actually provided regional cross-tabs (Understanding the MOE problems).

Where is Mississippi is there room for expansion of the Obama '08 coalition (Harrison, DeSoto, Rankin???) based upon what we are seeing right now *at this point in the race* among White/Anglo voters in the state?

Where in the state is there possibly room for Trump to expand the Republican coalition without increased African-American support (Which doesn't be to seem the case nationally based upon the polling we have seen thus far)?

In contrast, Hillary has only room to improve from Obama '08 numbers in many Southern states, and polls we are seeing from GA and SC seem to indicate that there are many McCain/Romney Republicans sitting on the fence, or possibly even crossing over to vote Dem because they can't bring themselves to support Trump.

[Adam Griffin]

I'm not sure why so many people are having a hard time believing this, considering other recent and relevant polls released. For the past three election cycles, Democrats' share of the vote in SC has been more or less within 1.5 points of their share in GA. While I think that gap will likely continue to widen over the next decade - largely because the out-of-state growth into SC is not as favorable to Dems as it is in NC or GA - it likely wouldn't completely detach the state from this trend in 2016.

I'm not confident Clinton can win SC - in fact, I think a GA win at best will be via plurality and by a very small margin - but this isn't as ridiculous as some are trying to portray, especially with the number of undecideds.

This is crazy, especially when you consider PPP has been rather Trump friendly.

Yeah, NC only being 3 points to the left of SC? Not buying it. One or both of these are wrong.

Why not? SC's Democratic share of the vote was 2 points behind NC in 2004, 5 points in 2008 & a little over 4 points in 2012. Furthermore, I'd argue that SC has a bit more room to grow than NC if only due to the fact that NC's persuadable voters have been mined to hell and back over the past 2 cycles; Democrats have likely flipped anybody they could flip in NC in 2008/2012, but SC has been largely ignored. Because of that, I'd be willing to bet there are more persuadable voters remaining (as a share of the population) in SC who could flip organically in this election than in NC.

[NOVA Green]

Welcome back former President Griffin!!!

Appreciate your insights as always into the changing political Demographics of the South-East!

Sounds totally plausible and much more succinctly and backed with data than anything I posted...

So what national margins do you think could cause NC,GA, and SC to flip in that order outside of massive external investment in terms of resources?

[RINO Tom]

The exact same state that voted for Romney handily will no longer be viewed as a Southern oasis of White trash and bigotry, OH NO: Atlas will now view SC as a cool coastal state with neat cities and nice beaches!!  Because you aren't a cool place unless you vote Democrat!

[Hammy]

The exact same state that voted for Romney handily will no longer be viewed as a Southern oasis of White trash and bigotry, OH NO: Atlas will now view SC as a cool coastal state with neat cities and nice beaches!!  Because you aren't a cool place unless you vote Democrat!

I'm from Florida (horrible place) and South Carolina could vote D+20 and I'll still see SC as a horrible place because to me it's Florida Jr.

[RINO Tom]

The exact same state that voted for Romney handily will no longer be viewed as a Southern oasis of White trash and bigotry, OH NO: Atlas will now view SC as a cool coastal state with neat cities and nice beaches!!  Because you aren't a cool place unless you vote Democrat!

I'm from Florida (horrible place) and South Carolina could vote D+20 and I'll still see SC as a horrible place because to me it's Florida Jr.

Haha, just talking about your generic Atlas Dem.  Colorado and Virginia were really cool, really educated, fairly wealthy states when they were solid R, and many states (Utah comes to mind right away) are pretty/nice/fun states but get talked about like they're trash because they vote Republican.

[NOVA Green]

The exact same state that voted for Romney handily will no longer be viewed as a Southern oasis of White trash and bigotry, OH NO: Atlas will now view SC as a cool coastal state with neat cities and nice beaches!!  Because you aren't a cool place unless you vote Democrat!

I always enjoyed my time in South Carolina, not sure if you have ever been, but it seems like you are setting you are setting up a strawman argument on the thread, where I haven't seen a single post stereotyping South Carolina....

Post a map if you please of the 2016 November outcomes in SC and explain why and not freak out on non-existent stereotypes (At least not on this thread).

Sounds like you need a sip of bourbon and a cigar and chill man.

[Adam Griffin]

The exact same state that voted for Romney handily will no longer be viewed as a Southern oasis of White trash and bigotry, OH NO: Atlas will now view SC as a cool coastal state with neat cities and nice beaches!!  Because you aren't a cool place unless you vote Democrat!

I always enjoyed my time in South Carolina, not sure if you have ever been, but it seems like you are setting you are setting up a strawman argument on the thread, where I haven't seen a single post stereotyping South Carolina....

Post a map if you please of the 2016 November outcomes in SC and explain why and not freak out on non-existent stereotypes (At least not on this thread).

Sounds like you need a sip of bourbon and a cigar and chill man.

He's very sensitive about being an elitist in a party now run by rubes and those with brains indistinguishable from them. It often results in projection, strawmen and denial.

[Badger]

So yes, while the race is close in the south, it is also close in states like Michigan, Maine, Oregon and Connecticut.

stop posting you are humiliating yourself.

[Dr. Arch]

So yes, while the race is close in the south, it is also close in states like Michigan, Maine, Oregon and Connecticut.

stop posting you are humiliating yourself.

I literally debunked this earlier with links to RCP averages, and he completely ignored it. The shortsightedness is real.

[pbrower2a]

There's another explanation, one that many of us have ignored: that Donald Trump is simply an awful  candidate for President. He's losing voters who ordinarily vote Republican, and the polls are beginning to show that.

Does the Sough Carolina Democratic Party want an objective poll or does it want to be told what it wants to believe?

Good question.

[Hammy]

There's another explanation, one that many of us have ignored: that Donald Trump is simply an awful  candidate for President. He's losing voters who ordinarily vote Republican, and the polls are beginning to show that.

Does the Sough Carolina Democratic Party want an objective poll or does it want to be told what it wants to believe?

Good question.

On this note, I'm wondering if (given they're shifting to likely voters now) we could be seeing the effects of reduced Republican turnout.

[President Johnson]

So it looks like Trump is running the most incompetent general election campaign is modern history if South Carolina and Kansas are becoming toss-ups or just "barely GOP".

[RINO Tom]

The exact same state that voted for Romney handily will no longer be viewed as a Southern oasis of White trash and bigotry, OH NO: Atlas will now view SC as a cool coastal state with neat cities and nice beaches!!  Because you aren't a cool place unless you vote Democrat!

I always enjoyed my time in South Carolina, not sure if you have ever been, but it seems like you are setting you are setting up a strawman argument on the thread, where I haven't seen a single post stereotyping South Carolina....

Post a map if you please of the 2016 November outcomes in SC and explain why and not freak out on non-existent stereotypes (At least not on this thread).

Sounds like you need a sip of bourbon and a cigar and chill man.

He's very sensitive about being an elitist in a party now run by rubes and those with brains indistinguishable from them. It often results in projection, strawmen and denial.

LOL, whatever you say, AG.

Anyway, yes I could use some bourbon.

[Seriously?]

There's another explanation, one that many of us have ignored: that Donald Trump is simply an awful  candidate for President. He's losing voters who ordinarily vote Republican, and the polls are beginning to show that.

Does the Sough Carolina Democratic Party want an objective poll or does it want to be told what it wants to believe?

Good question.

On this note, I'm wondering if (given they're shifting to likely voters now) we could be seeing the effects of reduced Republican turnout.

Do you know why I think the Democrats didn't want an "objective poll" here?

They went with Registered Voters instead of Likely Voters. PPP generally does Likely Voter polls. That departure raised an alarm with me.

[Human]

Donald Trump will win this state pretty comfortably. You guys have to remember that we are at Hillary Clinton's peak right now nationwide and she's still behind in SC. She should focus on NC, AZ, GA, FL, OH, PA, and IA and ignore states like SC.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Given the fact that it's PPP, I'm kind of doubtful.  That being said, you know the GOP's presidential hopes are in trouble when South Carolina is close.

Except it's not really close.  Keep in mind the methodology of this poll.  It didn't go back and ask undecideds where they lean. What this poll is picking up is that there are a fair number of Republican-leaning voters undecided whether they will vote. The Congressional races aren't close and the same is true of most General Assembly races. I fully expect the undecideds to break towards voting Republican, even if the Republican is Trump.

One thing that may hurt Trump is the way SC does straight party voting. The straight party vote does not apply to the Presidential race.  (I don't know, but I suspect it got decoupled back in the 50's or 60's so that voters could cast a straight party Democratic vote without casting a vote for the liberal Yankee Democratic presidential candidate.)  That may be a slight factor this year as there may well be some Republicans who cast the straight Republican ticket, but then choose to abstain from the Presidential vote. But I don't see it as being sufficient to help Clinton more than a point at most, and she needs far more than that to win this State.