SC-PPP: Trump +2

[Gass3268]

This poll was paid for by the State Democrats

And..

PPP isn't going to produce a crappy poll just to appease a client. Their reputation matters more.

[Fargobison]

That PPP Texas poll just got more interesting.

[Maxwell]

Ron Paul gif here

[The Other Castro]

Btw PPP had said polls (multiple) were coming out today, so SC might not be the only shocker.

[Dr. Arch]

[Erich Maria Remarque]

That PPP Texas poll just got more interesting.

[Seriously?]

Yeah, this is NOT a straight PPP poll and should be reported accordingly. It's akin to an internal if it was done on behalf of the Democrats. The thread should start PPP (D). The margin is probably overstated, as it was a client-based poll.

What tipped me off was the weird pro-LGBT numbers in a state like SC.

PPP is usually better disclosing stuff like that, you had to dig down into the release to get to that part.

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[JerryArkansas]

Yeah, this is NOT a straight PPP poll and should be reported accordingly. It's akin to an internal if it was done on behalf of the Democrats. The thread should start PPP (D). There's really nothing to see here.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

They are not going to fake a damn poll.  Why would they risk their name.  You are just salty because your candidate, the bigot who can't even take being beaten by a woman is only winning a state right now that he should be up in by much more.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Given the fact that it's PPP, I'm kind of doubtful.  That being said, you know the GOP's presidential hopes are in trouble when South Carolina is close.

[Seriously?]

Yeah, this is NOT a straight PPP poll and should be reported accordingly. It's akin to an internal if it was done on behalf of the Democrats. The thread should start PPP (D). There's really nothing to see here.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

They are not going to fake a damn poll.  Why would they risk their name.  You are just salty because your candidate, the bigot who can't even take being beaten by a woman is only winning a state right now that he should be up in by much more.

Fake a poll. No. Draw results more favorable to the party that commissioned the poll. Of course.

I'd be saying the same exact thing if the poll was done on behalf of the Republicans.

[The Other Castro]

Yeah, this is NOT a straight PPP poll and should be reported accordingly. It's akin to an internal if it was done on behalf of the Democrats. The thread should start PPP (D). The margin is probably overstated, as it was a client-based poll.

What tipped me off was the weird pro-LGBT numbers in a state like SC.

PPP is usually better disclosing stuff like that, you had to dig down into the release to get to that part.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Or maybe, you know, the state party paid them to conduct a poll because they wanted a poll done and polls cost money. This isn't an internal poll, it was conducted by the same PPP that conducts the other PPP polls.

[Yank2133]

Given the fact that it's PPP, I'm kind of doubtful.  That being said, you know the GOP's presidential hopes are in trouble when South Carolina is close.

PPP has been GOP friendly this cycle.

[john cage bubblegum]

Yeah, this is NOT a straight PPP poll and should be reported accordingly. It's akin to an internal if it was done on behalf of the Democrats. The thread should start PPP (D). There's really nothing to see here.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It may have been paid for by a Democratic client, but that doesn't mean they're just going to make it 5 points more Dem just because of that fact.  They released the crosstabs and everything as if it's a poll not paid for by a client.  I'm not sure about this, but I believe PPP releases all polls they do.  We normally only hear about internal partisan polls when they're good for one side.

In any case, this result is about where the 538 Nowcast had SC.

[Seriously?]

Yeah, this is NOT a straight PPP poll and should be reported accordingly. It's akin to an internal if it was done on behalf of the Democrats. The thread should start PPP (D). The margin is probably overstated, as it was a client-based poll.

What tipped me off was the weird pro-LGBT numbers in a state like SC.

PPP is usually better disclosing stuff like that, you had to dig down into the release to get to that part.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Or maybe, you know, the state party paid them to conduct a poll because they wanted a poll done and polls cost money. This isn't an internal poll, it was conducted by the same PPP that conducts the other PPP polls.

Does PPP usually post LV polls or RV polls? This is a RV poll.

[Doimper]

ahahahahaha

[Iosif]

Trump supporters have resorted to parsing polls that show him barely up in South Carolina. Sad!

[Seriously?]

A few things here:

1. Just because the poll was commissioned by the SC Democratic party doesn't mean it's inaccurate. This typical Atlas "INTERNAL = JUNK POLL" idea is nonsense (not to mention that this isn't even an internal). Obama's approval rating looks about right, as do the Senate numbers.

2. Also, the margin isn't really surprising, either. In a state where Clinton is basically winning 100% of Black voters and tons of Republicans/Whites haven't rallied around Trump (yet?), he's going to underperform big time. She's probably ahead or very close in TX and MS right now as well. If they're both tied in GA, Trump's not going to win SC by more than 3.

3. The 5% number for Gary Johnson is probably hurting Trump as well. I don't know why PPP didn't poll a two-way race this time.

So yeah, Trump should win SC in the end, but this is still a terrible poll for him, obviously.

Did I call it a junk poll? No.

I stated the obvious, that this poll should be labeled PPP (D). It was freaking commissioned by the Democrat Party for crying out loud. This is NOT a normal PPP poll. It's called intellectual honesty.

If I posted this and it was commissioned by the Republicans or even a Republican-leaning advocacy group, it would be PPP (R).

[Doimper]

Trump supporters have resorted to parsing polls that show him barely up in South Carolina. Sad!

Seriously's utter despair is oozing through my screen.

[JerryArkansas]

Yeah, this is NOT a straight PPP poll and should be reported accordingly. It's akin to an internal if it was done on behalf of the Democrats. The thread should start PPP (D). There's really nothing to see here.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

They are not going to fake a damn poll.  Why would they risk their name.  You are just salty because your candidate, the bigot who can't even take being beaten by a woman is only winning a state right now that he should be up in by much more.

Nobody can actually prove a poll is fake, so it's entirely possible for pollsters to completely cook their polls without risking embarassment.

Holy sh**t.  Republicans are so damn sad that they are saying polls are fake.  Love the reusing of the Trump tacit, however your use could be better.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

PPP has a Republican house effect.

[Seriously?]

Trump supporters have resorted to parsing polls that show him barely up in South Carolina. Sad!

Seriously's utter despair is oozing through my screen.

Ummmm. No.... It's the utter stupidity of some of the avatars on here not to recognize the methodological difference here and to admit that it's an advocacy poll. I believe in full disclosure. Most of you red avatars prefer hackery.

Trump leads in a red state with a worst-case scenario poll commissioned by the Democrats. Why exactly should I be concerned?

[JerryArkansas]

Trump supporters have resorted to parsing polls that show him barely up in South Carolina. Sad!

Seriously's utter despair is oozing through my screen.

Ummmm. No.... It's the utter stupidity of some of the avatars on here not to recognize the methodological difference here and to admit that it's an advocacy poll. I believe in full disclosure. Most of you red avatars prefer hackery.

No, you support twisting facts to make others believe the falsehoods which ooze from your mouth onto your keyboard.

[Xing]

I'm sure Trump supporters are just as skeptical of polls showing a tight race in Safe D states like OR, CT, ME, and NV.

[Sorenroy]

Breakdown by demographic:

Overall (+2R) — 100%
Trump — 41
Clinton — 39
Johnson — 5
Stein — 2
Undecided — 13


Gender:

Female (+7D) — 53%
Clinton — 43
Trump — 36
Johnson — 5
Stein — 2
Undecided — 14

Male (+13R) — 47%
Trump — 47
Clinton — 33
Johnson — 6
Stein — 2
Undecided — 13


Race:

White (+37R) — 66%
Trump — 57
Clinton — 20
Johnson — 7
Stein — 1
Undecided — 15

African-American (+75D) — 29%
Clinton — 80
Trump — 5
Stein — 3
Johnson — 2
Undecided — 9

Other (+8R) — 5%
Trump — 40
Clinton — 32
Stein — 4
Johnson — 2
Undecided — 21


Age:

18-29 (+32D) — 15%
Clinton — 51
Trump — 19
Stein — 7
Johnson — 6
Undecided — 16

30-45 (+12D) — 24%
Clinton — 40
Trump — 28
Johnson — 8
Stein — 0
Undecided — 24

45-65 (+10R) — 36%
Trump — 48
Clinton — 38
Johnson — 4
Stein — 1
Undecided — 9

65+ (+28R) — 25%
Trump — 58
Clinton — 30
Johnson — 3
Stein — 1
Undecided — 8


Education:

Some High School (+38D) — 7%
Clinton — 65
Trump — 27
Johnson — 5
Stein — 1
Undecided — 2

High School (+2D) — 17%
Clinton — 40
Trump — 38
Stein — 2
Johnson  1
Undecided — 18

Technical/Vocational (+16R) — 14%
Trump — 45
Clinton — 29
Stein — 5
Johnson — 4
Undecided — 16

Some College (+11R) — 17%
Trump — 47
Clinton — 36
Johnson — 5
Stein — 1
Undecided — 11

College Graduate (+13R) — 26%
Trump — 45
Clinton — 32
Johnson — 6
Stein — 1
Undecided — 17

Postgraduate (+8D) — 17%
Clinton — 44
Trump — 36
Johnson — 10
Stein — 1
Undecided — 8

I decided not to do "Do not care to say", but it was Clinton +8, 13% undecided and 3% of voters.


So in conclusion (sorry every English teacher ever), the winner definitely comes from where the undecideds break and, depending on what demographic you look at, they break very differently. The undecideds in race and education seem to favor Trump, but the undecideds in age favor Clinton.

[Tender Branson]

Sponsored by the SC Dem. Party ?

Probably means Trump leads by 7 ...