SC-PPP: Trump +2
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  SC-PPP: Trump +2
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Author Topic: SC-PPP: Trump +2  (Read 12745 times)
IceSpear
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« Reply #100 on: August 12, 2016, 10:12:09 PM »

I'm not sure why so many people are having a hard time believing this, considering other recent and relevant polls released. For the past three election cycles, Democrats' share of the vote in SC has been more or less within 1.5 points of their share in GA. While I think that gap will likely continue to widen over the next decade - largely because the out-of-state growth into SC is not as favorable to Dems as it is in NC or GA - it likely wouldn't completely detach the state from this trend in 2016.

I'm not confident Clinton can win SC - in fact, I think a GA win at best will be via plurality and by a very small margin - but this isn't as ridiculous as some are trying to portray, especially with the number of undecideds.

This is crazy, especially when you consider PPP has been rather Trump friendly.

Yeah, NC only being 3 points to the left of SC? Not buying it. One or both of these are wrong.

Why not? SC's Democratic share of the vote was 2 points behind NC in 2004, 5 points in 2008 & a little over 4 points in 2012. Furthermore, I'd argue that SC has a bit more room to grow than NC if only due to the fact that NC's persuadable voters have been mined to hell and back over the past 2 cycles; Democrats have likely flipped anybody they could flip in NC in 2008/2012, but SC has been largely ignored. Because of that, I'd be willing to bet there are more persuadable voters remaining (as a share of the population) in SC who could flip organically in this election than in NC.

I was referring to the margins. NC was 10 points to the left of SC in 2008 and 8 points to the left of it in 2012. I don't see why that gap would dramatically shrink. You make a fair point about persuadable voters, but it's not as if Hillary's team has been making any effort at all to mine any votes in SC.

Anyway, the Marist poll from today seems to confirm that it's more likely PPP's NC poll was the outlier as opposed to this one.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #101 on: August 12, 2016, 10:12:47 PM »

The exact same state that voted for Romney handily will no longer be viewed as a Southern oasis of White trash and bigotry, OH NO: Atlas will now view SC as a cool coastal state with neat cities and nice beaches!!  Because you aren't a cool place unless you vote Democrat!

Well then, wouldn't the obvious solution be for all states to vote Democrat? Wink

Well, except West Virginia. They'd be fooling nobody if they tried that to fit in.
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AHDuke99
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« Reply #102 on: August 13, 2016, 12:35:44 PM »

This really isn't too shocking. Lots of establishment Republicans live along the coast with me, and a lot of them do not like Trump and will likely either sit out the presidential election or hold their nose for Hillary.
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dspNY
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« Reply #103 on: August 13, 2016, 12:44:43 PM »

This really isn't too shocking. Lots of establishment Republicans live along the coast with me, and a lot of them do not like Trump and will likely either sit out the presidential election or hold their nose for Hillary.

Near Myrtle Beach? If so then SC is really in play because that area is staunch Repub
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #104 on: August 13, 2016, 12:47:46 PM »

This really isn't too shocking. Lots of establishment Republicans live along the coast with me, and a lot of them do not like Trump and will likely either sit out the presidential election or hold their nose for Hillary.

Near Myrtle Beach? If so then SC is really in play because that area is staunch Repub

That was one of the areas that I was thinking of when asking about the "country club Republican" vote, as well as Beaufort County possibly flipping this year...
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AHDuke99
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« Reply #105 on: August 13, 2016, 01:15:32 PM »

This really isn't too shocking. Lots of establishment Republicans live along the coast with me, and a lot of them do not like Trump and will likely either sit out the presidential election or hold their nose for Hillary.

Near Myrtle Beach? If so then SC is really in play because that area is staunch Repub

I'm in Charleston, which usually goes Democratic but the GOP gets 45% or so. This year i expect it to be a lot less than that. Myrtle may trend hard left too, but we'll have to see.
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HAnnA MArin County
semocrat08
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« Reply #106 on: August 13, 2016, 11:47:01 PM »

These blue avatars are going off the deep end and it's only August. B-E-A-UTIFUL Cheesy
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politicallefty
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« Reply #107 on: August 14, 2016, 12:25:30 AM »

This really isn't too shocking. Lots of establishment Republicans live along the coast with me, and a lot of them do not like Trump and will likely either sit out the presidential election or hold their nose for Hillary.

Near Myrtle Beach? If so then SC is really in play because that area is staunch Repub

I'm in Charleston, which usually goes Democratic but the GOP gets 45% or so. This year i expect it to be a lot less than that. Myrtle may trend hard left too, but we'll have to see.

Romney did even better than that in Charleston County. It's about a D+6 county relative to the state. (I tried to do a quick read of geographic terminology for SC.) If a poll like this is accurate, I'd imagine Hillary would have to be overperforming in the Low Country and in heavy African-American areas including Columbia.

On the surface, it would seem like Greenville and Spartanburg and that general area isn't prime territory for Democratic overperformance. I do imagine that area is probably particularly religious and I'd bet that the churches do a lot of the work for Republicans in terms of getting out the vote. I'm sure Trump will do great in that area, but I have to wonder how particularly enamored the clergy is with Trump. Now, like I basically said, I'm not entirely familiar with South Carolina in that sense, but would I be correct in thinking that a perfect storm for a Hillary victory in SC would be high turnout among blacks, winning over a significant number of college-educated whites (such as County Club Republicans) in the Low Country, and depressed turnout in the very religious and socially conservative Greenville and Spartanburg area (particularly SC-03 and SC-04)?

(Fwiw, on a sidenote, I just remembered during my research of SC politics how particularly catastrophic 2010 was for Democrats in seeing John Spratt defeated.)
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
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« Reply #108 on: August 14, 2016, 02:40:13 PM »

This really isn't too shocking. Lots of establishment Republicans live along the coast with me, and a lot of them do not like Trump and will likely either sit out the presidential election or hold their nose for Hillary.

Near Myrtle Beach? If so then SC is really in play because that area is staunch Repub

I'm in Charleston, which usually goes Democratic but the GOP gets 45% or so. This year i expect it to be a lot less than that. Myrtle may trend hard left too, but we'll have to see.

Romney did even better than that in Charleston County. It's about a D+6 county relative to the state. (I tried to do a quick read of geographic terminology for SC.) If a poll like this is accurate, I'd imagine Hillary would have to be overperforming in the Low Country and in heavy African-American areas including Columbia.

On the surface, it would seem like Greenville and Spartanburg and that general area isn't prime territory for Democratic overperformance. I do imagine that area is probably particularly religious and I'd bet that the churches do a lot of the work for Republicans in terms of getting out the vote. I'm sure Trump will do great in that area, but I have to wonder how particularly enamored the clergy is with Trump. Now, like I basically said, I'm not entirely familiar with South Carolina in that sense, but would I be correct in thinking that a perfect storm for a Hillary victory in SC would be high turnout among blacks, winning over a significant number of college-educated whites (such as County Club Republicans) in the Low Country, and depressed turnout in the very religious and socially conservative Greenville and Spartanburg area (particularly SC-03 and SC-04)?

(Fwiw, on a sidenote, I just remembered during my research of SC politics how particularly catastrophic 2010 was for Democrats in seeing John Spratt defeated.)

Romney played well here for the most part and was able to get some of the Republican votes that Obama picked up in 2008. I anticipate Trump will bleed support in that area because we all know he won't get 92% of Republicans like Romney did.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #109 on: August 14, 2016, 09:53:07 PM »

These blue avatars are going off the deep end and it's only August. B-E-A-UTIFUL Cheesy

Not too much more so than the red avatars of worshipping Hillary Clinton cultists who freaked out this year over the actual progressive in the primaries, Bernie Sanders. But, hey, isn’t it wonderful to see these neocon, Republican-to-Democratic crossovers who are telling us they are “with Her”?

You're still salty? It's time to MoveOn.org.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #110 on: August 14, 2016, 10:21:49 PM »

These blue avatars are going off the deep end and it's only August. B-E-A-UTIFUL Cheesy

Not too much more so than the red avatars of worshipping Hillary Clinton cultists who freaked out this year over the actual progressive in the primaries, Bernie Sanders. But, hey, isn’t it wonderful to see these neocon, Republican-to-Democratic crossovers who are telling us they are “with Her”?

Maybe you need a rest. GTFOver it.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #111 on: August 14, 2016, 10:27:11 PM »

These blue avatars are going off the deep end and it's only August. B-E-A-UTIFUL Cheesy

Not too much more so than the red avatars of worshipping Hillary Clinton cultists who freaked out this year over the actual progressive in the primaries, Bernie Sanders. But, hey, isn’t it wonderful to see these neocon, Republican-to-Democratic crossovers who are telling us they are “with Her”?
The lefties are on the march again.
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shua
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« Reply #112 on: August 17, 2016, 11:16:14 AM »

This poll was paid for by the State Democrats

And..

PPP isn't going to produce a crappy poll just to appease a client. Their reputation matters more.

The identity of the client isn't a reason to throw out the poll, but this far out, reputation is not really an issue.  Closer to the election we can expect PPP to 'unskew' their own polls in order to make sure they aren't too far off the results of other polls.
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