Expedition Strategies, Indiana: Trump and Clinton tied at 44%
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  Expedition Strategies, Indiana: Trump and Clinton tied at 44%
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Author Topic: Expedition Strategies, Indiana: Trump and Clinton tied at 44%  (Read 2037 times)
Sorenroy
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« on: August 15, 2016, 08:58:06 PM »
« edited: August 15, 2016, 09:00:05 PM by Sorenroy »

Saw it on 538's page. Twitter seems to be down so I can't access their link.

https://twitter.com/hwypol/status/764497782677790720

Edit: I see this is in the internal polling megathread so I'll probably delete it. Is it worth adding? 538 thinks so.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #1 on: August 15, 2016, 08:59:16 PM »

Looks like this is an internal... but then why is it part of 538's calculations?
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Kevin
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« Reply #2 on: August 15, 2016, 08:59:47 PM »

Saw it on 538's page. Twitter seems to be down so I can't acess their link.

https://twitter.com/hwypol/status/764497782677790720

I woder if this is backlash for choosing Pence if the poll is even "somewhat" accurate.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #3 on: August 15, 2016, 11:28:28 PM »

inb4 JCL's #analysis
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4 on: August 15, 2016, 11:49:36 PM »

Indiana doesn't get polled much. It's rarely an interesting state to poll (2008 and 1948 might have been exceptions).

Here's a fact: the state does swing. When the Republican Presidential nominee wins it by 10% or less or loses it altogether, then the Republican nominee is losing nationally. Indiana is more rural than any of its neighbors except Kentucky. Urban northwestern  Indiana (South Bend to Hammond) and greater Indianapolis are rather Blue.

Indiana is not exempt from cultural trends that have been going on in Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio. It's simply slower to have those happen. But when they happen in Indiana... well, the Republican Party might have something in common with the Federalists and Whigs. 
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #5 on: August 16, 2016, 10:17:05 AM »

Edit: I see this is in the internal polling megathread so I'll probably delete it. Is it worth adding? 538 thinks so.

We add Gravis and Quinnipiac, so why not?
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #6 on: August 16, 2016, 03:26:27 PM »

Surprised there haven't been more Indiana polls. It's a very interesting state this election.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #7 on: August 16, 2016, 03:32:24 PM »

Surprised there haven't been more Indiana polls. It's a very interesting state this election.
No
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #8 on: August 16, 2016, 03:34:55 PM »

Yes, it is.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #9 on: August 16, 2016, 03:37:08 PM »

Surprised there haven't been more Indiana polls. It's a very interesting state this election.

They have strict laws against robocalls. That disqualifies a lot of pollsters.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #10 on: August 16, 2016, 03:44:23 PM »

No, it is not as long as we are talking about presedential race only.

If Hillary wins here = she wins the election in a landslide, +8-10. So why bother about Indiana?
If the race will tight, she has no chance here. So why bothe about Indiana?
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #11 on: August 16, 2016, 03:51:21 PM »

No, it is not as long as we are talking about presedential race only.

If Hillary wins here = she wins the election in a landslide, +8-10. So why bother about Indiana?
If the race will tight, she has no chance here. So why bothe about Indiana?

Why should we bother with Georgia, Arizona, and Utah? Because we're interested in the possibility of landslides and interesting maps.
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #12 on: August 16, 2016, 03:55:12 PM »

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Can't believe they are thinking about dredging up Bayh.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #13 on: August 16, 2016, 04:07:57 PM »

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Can't believe they are thinking about dredging up Bayh.

Already have done.  Local Indy TV is pretty much 24/7 attack ads against him.  Looking at him and Mustache Man, it's no wonder the GOP has such an easy time here.
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #14 on: August 16, 2016, 04:12:28 PM »

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Despite all the doom and gloom, I don't think this will be a bad year for Republicans downticket. Rubio has something like a 20 percent split.

That's why the Trump nomination is such a missed opportunity. People are not going to turn out to vote for Hillary, which is going to help all the pubbies downballot.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #15 on: August 16, 2016, 04:14:18 PM »

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Can't believe they are thinking about dredging up Bayh.

Already have done.  Local Indy TV is pretty much 24/7 attack ads against him.  Looking at him and Mustache Man, it's no wonder the GOP has such an easy time here.

Do you think Todd Young can beat Bayh?

At this point I have no idea.  This area is totally polarized, and Bayh is no longer perceived as a moderate.  I don't think Bayh is going to win a lot of crossover Republicans.  Indiana ain't Wisconsin.
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F_S_USATN
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« Reply #16 on: August 17, 2016, 10:48:39 AM »

Monmouth is coming out with Pres/Gov and Sen today
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #17 on: August 17, 2016, 11:02:03 AM »

This area is totally polarized, and Bayh is no longer perceived as a moderate.

That's because he is conservative.
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