KS-SUSA: Trump +5

[pbrower2a]

The Republican Party in Kansas has been showing signs of rifting. A nominee like Donald Trump is the worst possible in such a circumstance.

[Skye]

I know you are all happy about the imminent Trump collapse, and the repercussions it'll have in red states. However, I seem to recall SUSA is particularly junky in KY. So take this poll with a grain of salt.

luckily this is a poll of kansas

Hmmm. I'm an idiot then. Disregard my comment.

Though I don't see this state being particularly close. Clinton probably has a low ceiling. If Brownback won re-election, Trump's got this.

[Holmes]

This happening in Kansas probably means Clinton can win the Omaha EV even if the election is close, which would short-circuit Trump's non-PA path to 270.

I was about to say, NE-02 is most likely in Clinton's column if the margin in Kansas is only 5%.

[Dr. Arch]

We need KS to connect the East Coast and the Midwest to the West Coast along with AZ. Let's do this!

[LLR]

We need KS to connect the East Coast and the Midwest to the West Coast along with AZ. Let's do this!

MO as well

[Eraserhead]

Just embarrassing.

[pbrower2a]

We need KS to connect the East Coast and the Midwest to the West Coast along with AZ. Let's do this!

MO as well

NE-01 would also do the trick, as it borders Iowa and Kansas.

[NOVA Green]

I know you are all happy about the imminent Trump collapse, and the repercussions it'll have in red states. However, I seem to recall SUSA is particularly junky in KY. So take this poll with a grain of salt.

luckily this is a poll of kansas

Hmmm. I'm an idiot then. Disregard my comment.

Though I don't see this state being particularly close. Clinton probably has a low ceiling. If Brownback won re-election, Trump's got this.

I believe you are correct about the low ceiling for Hillary, and don't believe that Kansas is truly in play.... *yet*.

Based upon this poll it does appear that Trump has much more room to expand his numbers than Hillary, however it does appear that there is a collapse in Republican support for Trump based upon core Republican voters to the point that we are even discussing this.

Key items---- Suburban Republican voters/leaners, Female Republican voters leaners, evangelical voters sitting on the fence.

The only reason we are talking about Kansas is because Trump has a major issue rallying the core Republican base over the past few decades into his column, and *these same patterns have been replicated in many other states over the past few weeks* so this is just another (And unexpected) data point to add to the current body of knowledge.

Like I said earlier, if this poll and the two recent polls of Georgia are legit, then we really need to see what is happening in Texas, where there are large populations of educated white voters in places like Montgomery, Fort Bend, Collin, Denton. Williamson, etc....

At this point, I would not be surprised to see Hillary win Harris County 55-45% in a two candidate vote breakdown, with much greater swing against Trump in more heavily wealthier and educated Anglo areas like Montgomery County (The Woodlands) than in Harris County.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I know you are all happy about the imminent Trump collapse, and the repercussions it'll have in red states. However, I seem to recall SUSA is particularly junky in KY. So take this poll with a grain of salt.

luckily this is a poll of kansas

Hmmm. I'm an idiot then. Disregard my comment.

Though I don't see this state being particularly close. Clinton probably has a low ceiling. If Brownback won re-election, Trump's got this.

At this point, I would not be surprised to see Hillary win Harris County 55-45% in a two candidate vote breakdown, with much greater swing against Trump in more heavily wealthier and educated Anglo areas like Montgomery County (The Woodlands) than in Harris County.

As someone with conservative anti-Trump/Clinton/Cruz relatives in Montgomery County voting for Trump over "Benghazi e-mails", I would love for this to be true

[pbrower2a]

But what if Kansas is rifting politically?

[NOVA Green]

I know you are all happy about the imminent Trump collapse, and the repercussions it'll have in red states. However, I seem to recall SUSA is particularly junky in KY. So take this poll with a grain of salt.

luckily this is a poll of kansas

Hmmm. I'm an idiot then. Disregard my comment.

Though I don't see this state being particularly close. Clinton probably has a low ceiling. If Brownback won re-election, Trump's got this.

At this point, I would not be surprised to see Hillary win Harris County 55-45% in a two candidate vote breakdown, with much greater swing against Trump in more heavily wealthier and educated Anglo areas like Montgomery County (The Woodlands) than in Harris County.

As someone with conservative anti-Trump/Clinton/Cruz relatives in Montgomery County voting for Trump over "her damn e-mails", I would love for this to be true

Anecdotal, but I lived in NW Harris County until very recently and Trump's message did not resonate particularly well among the vast majority of my co-workers in a large corporate office environment.

I do believe that there is a good chance that if the election were to be held today Fort Bend would likely flip, because of educated upper-middle class Anglos, Asian-American voters (Heavily Vietnamese-American) and collapse of Middle-Class Latino support for the current Republican nominee.

I do not predict that Montgomery County will flip, however I would not be surprised to see Trump at only 65% of the two candidate vote.

The problem with Metro-Houston is that there are so many jobs tied to the Energy Sector, to the point that many Anglos will not vote Democratic, but I suspect that among higher-income and educational backgrounds there will be some shifts.

This scenario could well change depending upon Middle-Class and Upper-Middle-class Texas Latinos dramatically abandoning the Republican Party and voting more like California Middle-Class Latinos as a result of the toxic nature and racist comments of their standard bearer.

That being said, Houston Anglos will swing less to Hillary than DFW Anglos, but I think there will be a greater overall swing towards Hillary in Metro Houston than Metro DFW.

[RI]

If neither Davis nor Orman could win KS in 2014, Clinton's certainly not winning it in 2016.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Thank you, GOP primary voters. Just cannot thank you all enough.

[Suburbia]

When we did Kansas projects on the main board I mentioned the slim possibility of a surprise due to moderate R's possibly rebelling against Trump. Well there it is. Still Likely R but watch this

It also pretty much confirms that Clinton is ahead for the Omaha EV

I think Clinton could win NE-2. The district is a swing area, plus the college voters in Omaha may support her. Johnson County, Kansas voters are probably the college educated suburban Republican voters who are turned off by Trump's message. Some of them live in Overland Park, etc.

[Adam Griffin]

[Clarence Boddicker]

In your guts, you know he's nuts.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I love these. Please keep posting more of them.

[Liberalrocks]

oh my

[Sir Mohamed]

#BattlegroundKansas

[Wisconsin+17]

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Haven't I been saying this since January? Trump is a bad fit for the republican party as a whole. If he's losing college-educated rural republicans like me in a deep, deep red state - Trump is in trouble.