IA/OH/PA-NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton +4/tied in IA, +5/+4 in OH, +11/+9 in PA (user search)
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  IA/OH/PA-NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton +4/tied in IA, +5/+4 in OH, +11/+9 in PA (search mode)
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Author Topic: IA/OH/PA-NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton +4/tied in IA, +5/+4 in OH, +11/+9 in PA  (Read 5587 times)
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
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Posts: 14,166
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« on: August 10, 2016, 12:13:00 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on August 10, 2016, 11:47:41 AM
Quote from: dspNY on August 10, 2016, 11:43:20 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on August 10, 2016, 11:36:44 AM
Quote from: dspNY on August 10, 2016, 11:25:46 AM

Once again, a much less diverse electorate in OH and PA than what we saw in 2012

OH was 79% white, 15% African American in 2012 and this poll has it 84-12
PA was 79% white, 13% African American in 2012 and this poll has it 82-9

Are you using exit-polls or voter files?

New York Times exit polls from 2012

You should look into some of the work Nate Cohen has done as he's found that based on voter files, the exit polls in 2012 oversampled minorities compared to who actually voted. Going based on voter files is probably a better way to go.
For reference: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/upshot/there-are-more-white-voters-than-people-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html
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