IA/OH/PA-NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton +4/tied in IA, +5/+4 in OH, +11/+9 in PA

[NOVA Green]

Very nice !
My main fear is IA. Hope Hillary can hold this state.
Things look good right now for Clinton in OH, but this state may swing towards R as election day nears (probably be a true toss-up state).

It would be interesting to see regional breakdowns within OH, particularly Metro Cinci and Columbus. I think there is some room for Hillary to expand among White suburban women in both regions, to help offset an expected Trump Male bump in Eastern OH (Youngstown, Canton, etc...) and possibly Toledo as well.

Hopefully we'll get a Columbus Dispatch poll before too long to see what it's looking like in the "five or six states of Ohio".

[IceSpear]

Zombie Reagan Democrats will rise from the grave and vote in droves for Trump, who has destroyed Reagan style conservatism, because... greatness?

Also, Eastern PA does not exist!

Looks like the muh Iowa whites theory may have some ground to stand on after all, lol.

[OneJ]

I come home after a long first day of the 10th Grade (which was surprisingly better than expected) and find all of these polls with Hillary leading over Trump is very encouraging TBH.

[Likely Voter]

Maybe betting the farm on PA as his tipping point isn't a good move for Trump.   Although it isn't exactly clear what other path is easier.  It could be that Obama was a bad fit for the state (clinging to their god and guns) and Clinton is reversing the recent trend.

[Dr. Arch]

When PA is as consistently D as Michigan, you know it's gone.

[NOVA Green]

Maybe betting the farm on PA as his tipping point isn't a good move for Trump.   Although it isn't exactly clear what other path is easier.  It could be that Obama was a bad fit for the state (clinging to their god and guns) and Clinton is reversing the recent trend.

Not to mention that she does have some "home state roots", decimated Obama in the primaries based on running on a "jobs and economy" platform versus an "anti-war" platform in a state with a high percentage of military veterans ("Deer Hunter" Country) with an aging blue-collar population in most regions of the state outside of metro Philly where the economic recovery of the '90s under Bill Clinton was real after 12 years of economic collapse. Additionally, she topped it off the night before the '08 Dem primary with the famous shot of doing a boilermaker in a bowling alley with a burly union worker somewhere outside of Pittsburgh.

I think you're right that she does have street cred in many parts of PA that Obama did not, and she has added to that because of the repugnance many swing voters in the Philly 'burbs feel towards the current Republican candidate.

Trump can do a McCain and go "all in" for PA, but yeah not sure what other options are out there unless he can get the race down to 3-4% in national polling (Assuming equal distribution in swing states).

[Eraserhead]

Those are some impressive numbers for Johnson and Stein in Iowa.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Iowa Democrats are super white and very liberal, so Stein's numbers there aren't surprising.

[Devils30]

I think Hilary may be underestimated in Iowa. This poll has her up 31% with white college grads and down only 7% with white non college. I know Iowa has a lot of non college whites but these numbers should add up to more like an 8-9% Hillary lead not 4%.

[Reginald]

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/810-clinton-trump-competitive-in-iowa-ohio-clinton-leads-trump-in-pennsylvania/

More info, crosstabs, etc.

[MT Treasurer]

I think Hilary may be underestimated in Iowa. This poll has her up 31% with white college grads and down only 7% with white non college. I know Iowa has a lot of non college whites but these numbers should add up to more like an 8-9% Hillary lead not 4%.

Sigh.

[dspNY]

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/810-clinton-trump-competitive-in-iowa-ohio-clinton-leads-trump-in-pennsylvania/

More info, crosstabs, etc.

Once again, a much less diverse electorate in OH and PA than what we saw in 2012

OH was 79% white, 15% African American in 2012 and this poll has it 84-12
PA was 79% white, 13% African American in 2012 and this poll has it 82-9

[Gass3268]

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/810-clinton-trump-competitive-in-iowa-ohio-clinton-leads-trump-in-pennsylvania/

More info, crosstabs, etc.

Once again, a much less diverse electorate in OH and PA than what we saw in 2012

OH was 79% white, 15% African American in 2012 and this poll has it 84-12
PA was 79% white, 13% African American in 2012 and this poll has it 82-9

Are you using exit-polls or voter files?

[dspNY]

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/810-clinton-trump-competitive-in-iowa-ohio-clinton-leads-trump-in-pennsylvania/

More info, crosstabs, etc.

Once again, a much less diverse electorate in OH and PA than what we saw in 2012

OH was 79% white, 15% African American in 2012 and this poll has it 84-12
PA was 79% white, 13% African American in 2012 and this poll has it 82-9

Are you using exit-polls or voter files?

New York Times exit polls from 2012

[Gass3268]

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/810-clinton-trump-competitive-in-iowa-ohio-clinton-leads-trump-in-pennsylvania/

More info, crosstabs, etc.

Once again, a much less diverse electorate in OH and PA than what we saw in 2012

OH was 79% white, 15% African American in 2012 and this poll has it 84-12
PA was 79% white, 13% African American in 2012 and this poll has it 82-9

Are you using exit-polls or voter files?

New York Times exit polls from 2012

You should look into some of the work Nate Cohen has done as he's found that based on voter files, the exit polls in 2012 oversampled minorities compared to who actually voted. Going based on voter files is probably a better way to go.

[Speed of Sound]

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/810-clinton-trump-competitive-in-iowa-ohio-clinton-leads-trump-in-pennsylvania/

More info, crosstabs, etc.

Once again, a much less diverse electorate in OH and PA than what we saw in 2012

OH was 79% white, 15% African American in 2012 and this poll has it 84-12
PA was 79% white, 13% African American in 2012 and this poll has it 82-9

Are you using exit-polls or voter files?

New York Times exit polls from 2012

You should look into some of the work Nate Cohen has done as he's found that based on voter files, the exit polls in 2012 oversampled minorities compared to who actually voted. Going based on voter files is probably a better way to go.

For reference: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/upshot/there-are-more-white-voters-than-people-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html

[Devout Centrist]

I think Hilary may be underestimated in Iowa. This poll has her up 31% with white college grads and down only 7% with white non college. I know Iowa has a lot of non college whites but these numbers should add up to more like an 8-9% Hillary lead not 4%.

Sigh.

The unskewers are everywhere.

[Gass3268]

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/810-clinton-trump-competitive-in-iowa-ohio-clinton-leads-trump-in-pennsylvania/

More info, crosstabs, etc.

Once again, a much less diverse electorate in OH and PA than what we saw in 2012

OH was 79% white, 15% African American in 2012 and this poll has it 84-12
PA was 79% white, 13% African American in 2012 and this poll has it 82-9

Are you using exit-polls or voter files?

New York Times exit polls from 2012

You should look into some of the work Nate Cohen has done as he's found that based on voter files, the exit polls in 2012 oversampled minorities compared to who actually voted. Going based on voter files is probably a better way to go.

For reference: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/upshot/there-are-more-white-voters-than-people-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html

Should be noted that this was before Trump tanked with white college educated voters (particularly women).

[Devils30]

If Wisconsin is near 15 then Iowa will be closer to 10 than 5. I stand by my post.

[dspNY]

If Wisconsin is near 15 then Iowa will be closer to 10 than 5. I stand by my post.

Agreed. Iowa is only 4-5 points right of Wisconsin and sometimes only 2-3

[Sir Mohamed]

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Maybe betting the farm on PA as his tipping point isn't a good move for Trump.   Although it isn't exactly clear what other path is easier.  It could be that Obama was a bad fit for the state (clinging to their god and guns) and Clinton is reversing the recent trend.

There is no point to talk about any path, while Trump is down 8 points nationally