FL-Unnamed Pollster: Clinton+2

[Tender Branson]

I guess the poll will be out later today, maybe by Marist, SUSA or Quinnipiac ?

http://www.nbc-2.com/story/32712604/clinton-visits-florida-with-2-point-lead-over-trump

[Lyin' Steve]

That's way out of step with the nationwide numbers.

[Ebsy]

I'd guess Quinnipiajunk.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'd guess Quinnipiajunk.

Yup.

[Ebsy]

Actually I saw a tweet that Tarrance was in the field, so that is equally likely as Quinnipiajunk.

[Xing]

If Quinnipiac is showing Clinton ahead in Florida, RIP Trump.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

If Quinnipiac is showing Clinton ahead in Florida, RIP Trump.

Quinnipiac has been pretty good in Florida, but whatever.

No TNVolunteer, you don't seem to understand that Qunnipiac sucks because it continues to show a result that the red icons don't like !!!!!!!111!!!!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If Quinnipiac is showing Clinton ahead in Florida, RIP Trump.

Quinnipiac has been pretty good in Florida, but whatever.

No TNVolunteer, you don't seem to understand that Qunnipiac sucks because it continues to show a result that the red icons don't like !!!!!!!111!!!!

Cute, but no. Their model been a joke in comparison to others all year.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

If Quinnipiac is showing Clinton ahead in Florida, RIP Trump.

Quinnipiac has been pretty good in Florida, but whatever.

No TNVolunteer, you don't seem to understand that Qunnipiac sucks because it continues to show a result that the red icons don't like !!!!!!!111!!!!

Cute, but no. Their model been a joke in comparison to others all year.

What problems does their model have? They have A- in 538's pollster ratings.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If Quinnipiac is showing Clinton ahead in Florida, RIP Trump.

Quinnipiac has been pretty good in Florida, but whatever.

No TNVolunteer, you don't seem to understand that Qunnipiac sucks because it continues to show a result that the red icons don't like !!!!!!!111!!!!

Cute, but no. Their model been a joke in comparison to others all year.

What problems does their model have? They have A- in 538's pollster ratings.

That's a long-term rating. Their model has a big drop in especially Latino turnout, basically it has the same problem that Gallup had in 2012. Too white an electorate. Look at their performance in the Dem primary, where race is a big deal, it's been pretty bad and their national models have had lower than trend performances for Clinton.

[MT Treasurer]

If Quinnipiac is showing Clinton ahead in Florida, RIP Trump.

Quinnipiac has been pretty good in Florida, but whatever.

No TNVolunteer, you don't seem to understand that Qunnipiac sucks because it continues to show a result that the red icons don't like !!!!!!!111!!!!

Cute, but no. Their model been a joke in comparison to others all year.

Maybe in PA or CO, but certainly not in FL.

2012: Final QU poll: Obama +1, election result: Obama +1
2014: Final QU poll: Crist +1, election result: Scott +1

QU has pretty much always found Clinton in a strong position in FL.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

If Quinnipiac is showing Clinton ahead in Florida, RIP Trump.

Quinnipiac has been pretty good in Florida, but whatever.

No TNVolunteer, you don't seem to understand that Qunnipiac sucks because it continues to show a result that the red icons don't like !!!!!!!111!!!!

Cute, but no. Their model been a joke in comparison to others all year.

What problems does their model have? They have A- in 538's pollster ratings.

That's a long-term rating. Their model has a big drop in especially Latino turnout, basically it has the same problem that Gallup had in 2012. Too white an electorate. Look at their performance in the Dem primary, where race is a big deal, it's been pretty bad and their national models have had lower than trend performances for Clinton.

I will compare Quinnipiac and Monmouth in the most important states according to 538

State	Q (error towards Clinton)	M (error towards Clinton)	Result
FL	C +25 (-5.2)	Na	C +31.2
PA	C +6 (-6)	C+13(+1)	C+12
OH	C+5(-8.8 )	C+14(+0.2)	C+13.8
NC	Na	Na
VA	Na	C+27 (-2.1)	C+29.1
MI	Na	C+13(+14.5)	S+1.5
CO	Na	Na
MN	Na	Na
IA	S+3(-3.2)	C+5(+4.8 )	C+0.2
WI	Na	Na
GA	Na	Na
NV	Na	Na
CT	C+9(+3.8 )	Na	C+5.2
NH	Na	S+10(+12.4)	S+22.4

Q understimated Hillary with 3.88 on avareage
M overestimated Hillary with 5.13 on average
In the same states
Q -6
M +2

Q is not that bad, and clearly is not a joke, even though it seems to have a clear R-bias

[gf20202]

I guess the poll will be out later today, maybe by Marist, SUSA or Quinnipiac ?

http://www.nbc-2.com/story/32712604/clinton-visits-florida-with-2-point-lead-over-trump

Not Marist:

Mark Murray ‏@mmurraypolitics  10m10 minutes ago
Heads up: We'll be releasing our NBC/WSJ/Marist polls of Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania at 5:00 pm ET today

[dspNY]

I guess the poll will be out later today, maybe by Marist, SUSA or Quinnipiac ?

http://www.nbc-2.com/story/32712604/clinton-visits-florida-with-2-point-lead-over-trump

Not Marist:

Mark Murray ‏@mmurraypolitics  10m10 minutes ago
Heads up: We'll be releasing our NBC/WSJ/Marist polls of Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania at 5:00 pm ET today

Those will be the first Iowa and Ohio post-convention polls

[Dereich]

As I've said before, even if Florida votes for Clinton it won't be by 7 or 8 points. There just aren't enough swing-able people to bring either party under around 46% in this state. I still think Clinton will win it, but it won't be by a huge margin.

[dspNY]

As I've said before, even if Florida votes for Clinton it won't be by 7 or 8 points. There just aren't enough swing-able people to bring either party under around 46% in this state. I still think Clinton will win it, but it won't be by a huge margin.

Florida is the one swing state where GOP ground operations independent of a bad candidate with no organization are still very strong so I would agree. I would make a guess of Clinton 51, Trump 47, Others 2

[Lyin' Steve]

So did we ever find out who this mystery pollster was?

[Tender Branson]

So did we ever find out who this mystery pollster was?

No.

Maybe NBC2 used an average or something ?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Maybe it's our old friend, overtime politics

[Adam Griffin]