Justice +10-WV Global Strategy Group August 1-3 (Internal)

[IceSpear]

So Justice's lead has been reduced from ~20 points to at most 10 points, probably quite a bit less since this is an internal. He will only continue to collapse over the next 3 months, as I predicted.

Safe R. Congrats Gov. Cole.

[IceSpear]

I think it's totally plausible that there will be a bunch of Trump/Justice voters.  He seems like the most plausible Dem candidate to endorse Trump, too.

There will be. But not anywhere near enough for him to win.

[IceSpear]

What the hell is going on?
Cole should be up by double digits, West Virginia is going to be Trump's best state!

Governor races /=/ Federal races

Why do people not understand this? It's the same reason why Scott can win in Vermont.

Yeah, this race is a Tossup, with Justice favored at this point.

Really? Justice is favored after his lead was cut in half and his own internal shows him up 10? That means he's probably really only up by 5 or something, with plenty of time left on the clock.

[IceSpear]

What the hell is going on?
Cole should be up by double digits, West Virginia is going to be Trump's best state!

Governor races /=/ Federal races

Why do people not understand this? It's the same reason why Scott can win in Vermont.

Yeah, this race is a Tossup, with Justice favored at this point.

Really? Justice is favored after his lead was cut in half and his own internal shows him up 10? That means he's probably really only up by 5 or something, with plenty of time left on the clock.

I'd love to know what polls showed him with a 20 point lead. As far as I know, the polls thus far have shown Cole leading. And I live in WV, I can feel it in the air; the momentum is clearly with Justice.

http://wvmetronews.com/2016/05/05/justice-again-leads-west-virginia-poll-goodwin-and-kessler-make-up-little-ground/

[IceSpear]

Have we seen Cole lead in a single poll so far? I think the people calling this race Lean R are a bit premature.

Talk to me when Justice is still leading in late September. WV has such a strong republican lean that he has to be considered to have a disadvantage right now. If we had lots of non-internals showing him up by 10, it'd be different, but we don't.

Cole might win, but there's yet to be any evidence that WV doesn't still prefer Democrats in the governor's mansion.  How they vote nationally is only so relevant.

No worries. You'll get all the evidence you need on November 8th.