Justice +10-WV Global Strategy Group August 1-3 (Internal)
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Author Topic: Justice +10-WV Global Strategy Group August 1-3 (Internal)  (Read 2750 times)
Pragmatic Conservative
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« on: August 08, 2016, 09:38:29 PM »

Jim Justice 47%
Bill Cole 37%
Undecided 15%

http://justiceforwv.com/new-poll-justice-holds-10-point-lead-over-cole/

This is an Internal poll so take it with a grain of salt. However still interesting that despite Trump doing well in WV, that Jim Justice remains in the lead. 
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Lincoln Deputy Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2016, 09:57:39 PM »

Cole is a b-lister and it shows. Democrats really lucked out in that Republicans weren't able to get Morissey or McKinley to run. I still think Cole pulls it out, but it'll be 52-48 or thereabouts when Morrissey or McKinley might have crossed 60.
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JMT
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« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2016, 10:00:38 PM »

Cole is a b-lister and it shows. Democrats really lucked out in that Republicans weren't able to get Morissey or McKinley to run. I still think Cole pulls it out, but it'll be 52-48 or thereabouts when Morrissey or McKinley might have crossed 60.

Yeah I agree with this
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2016, 11:32:59 PM »

Maybe Justice will get 47% in the end, if he's lucky.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: August 09, 2016, 01:31:29 AM »

So Justice's lead has been reduced from ~20 points to at most 10 points, probably quite a bit less since this is an internal. He will only continue to collapse over the next 3 months, as I predicted.

Safe R. Congrats Gov. Cole.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: August 09, 2016, 01:33:16 AM »

I think it's totally plausible that there will be a bunch of Trump/Justice voters.  He seems like the most plausible Dem candidate to endorse Trump, too.

There will be. But not anywhere near enough for him to win.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #6 on: August 11, 2016, 06:59:17 AM »

What the hell is going on?
Cole should be up by double digits, West Virginia is going to be Trump's best state!
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #7 on: August 11, 2016, 07:01:14 AM »

What the hell is going on?
Cole should be up by double digits, West Virginia is going to be Trump's best state!

Governor races /=/ Federal races

Why do people not understand this? It's the same reason why Scott can win in Vermont.

Yeah, this race is a Tossup, with Justice favored at this point.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #8 on: August 11, 2016, 07:04:56 AM »

What the hell is going on?
Cole should be up by double digits, West Virginia is going to be Trump's best state!

Governor races /=/ Federal races

Why do people not understand this? It's the same reason why Scott can win in Vermont.

Yeah, this race is a Tossup, with Justice favored at this point.
Of course this is different, but you cannot deny that Federal races do have a big impact on Governor races, even if it isn't as big as on congressional races. Look at how many governors republicans lost in 2006 and how many governors democrats lost in 2010.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #9 on: August 11, 2016, 07:54:59 AM »

What the hell is going on?
Cole should be up by double digits, West Virginia is going to be Trump's best state!

Governor races /=/ Federal races

Why do people not understand this? It's the same reason why Scott can win in Vermont.

Yeah, this race is a Tossup, with Justice favored at this point.
Of course this is different, but you cannot deny that Federal races do have a big impact on Governor races, even if it isn't as big as on congressional races. Look at how many governors republicans lost in 2006 and how many governors democrats lost in 2010.

If I were to try and rationalize this, the people are clearly unhappy with the current picture in the given circumstances and just want to throw out the incumbents, no matter what party they belong to. They are unhappy with the direction of state (and nation, but they can fix the state executive now), and thus are willing to consider a relatively similar member of the other party.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: August 11, 2016, 09:42:27 AM »

What the hell is going on?
Cole should be up by double digits, West Virginia is going to be Trump's best state!

Governor races /=/ Federal races

Why do people not understand this? It's the same reason why Scott can win in Vermont.

Yeah, this race is a Tossup, with Justice favored at this point.

Really? Justice is favored after his lead was cut in half and his own internal shows him up 10? That means he's probably really only up by 5 or something, with plenty of time left on the clock.
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WVdemocrat
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« Reply #11 on: August 11, 2016, 11:52:24 AM »

What the hell is going on?
Cole should be up by double digits, West Virginia is going to be Trump's best state!

Governor races /=/ Federal races

Why do people not understand this? It's the same reason why Scott can win in Vermont.

Yeah, this race is a Tossup, with Justice favored at this point.

Really? Justice is favored after his lead was cut in half and his own internal shows him up 10? That means he's probably really only up by 5 or something, with plenty of time left on the clock.

I'd love to know what polls showed him with a 20 point lead. As far as I know, the polls thus far have shown Cole leading. And I live in WV, I can feel it in the air; the momentum is clearly with Justice.
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SWE
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« Reply #12 on: August 11, 2016, 12:00:17 PM »

Let's be realistic here: nobody's going to vote against someone who's name is "Justice." Safe D.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #13 on: August 11, 2016, 04:12:46 PM »

Let's be realistic here: nobody's going to vote against someone who's name is "Justice." Safe D.
"Justice or Coal?"
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: August 11, 2016, 05:51:38 PM »

What the hell is going on?
Cole should be up by double digits, West Virginia is going to be Trump's best state!

Governor races /=/ Federal races

Why do people not understand this? It's the same reason why Scott can win in Vermont.

Yeah, this race is a Tossup, with Justice favored at this point.

Really? Justice is favored after his lead was cut in half and his own internal shows him up 10? That means he's probably really only up by 5 or something, with plenty of time left on the clock.

I'd love to know what polls showed him with a 20 point lead. As far as I know, the polls thus far have shown Cole leading. And I live in WV, I can feel it in the air; the momentum is clearly with Justice.

http://wvmetronews.com/2016/05/05/justice-again-leads-west-virginia-poll-goodwin-and-kessler-make-up-little-ground/
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #15 on: August 12, 2016, 06:16:14 PM »

Have we seen Cole lead in a single poll so far? I think the people calling this race Lean R are a bit premature.
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Lincoln Deputy Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #16 on: August 12, 2016, 06:36:38 PM »

Have we seen Cole lead in a single poll so far? I think the people calling this race Lean R are a bit premature.

Talk to me when Justice is still leading in late September. WV has such a strong republican lean that he has to be considered to have a disadvantage right now. If we had lots of non-internals showing him up by 10, it'd be different, but we don't.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #17 on: August 14, 2016, 12:12:17 PM »

Have we seen Cole lead in a single poll so far? I think the people calling this race Lean R are a bit premature.

Talk to me when Justice is still leading in late September. WV has such a strong republican lean that he has to be considered to have a disadvantage right now. If we had lots of non-internals showing him up by 10, it'd be different, but we don't.

Cole might win, but there's yet to be any evidence that WV doesn't still prefer Democrats in the governor's mansion.  How they vote nationally is only so relevant.
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Lincoln Deputy Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #18 on: August 14, 2016, 12:26:16 PM »

Have we seen Cole lead in a single poll so far? I think the people calling this race Lean R are a bit premature.

Talk to me when Justice is still leading in late September. WV has such a strong republican lean that he has to be considered to have a disadvantage right now. If we had lots of non-internals showing him up by 10, it'd be different, but we don't.

Cole might win, but there's yet to be any evidence that WV doesn't still prefer Democrats in the governor's mansion.  How they vote nationally is only so relevant.

It's relevant when the first elected republican Senator in almost 60 years won every county in the state.
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WVdemocrat
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« Reply #19 on: August 14, 2016, 12:49:21 PM »

What the hell is going on?
Cole should be up by double digits, West Virginia is going to be Trump's best state!

Governor races /=/ Federal races

Why do people not understand this? It's the same reason why Scott can win in Vermont.

Yeah, this race is a Tossup, with Justice favored at this point.

Really? Justice is favored after his lead was cut in half and his own internal shows him up 10? That means he's probably really only up by 5 or something, with plenty of time left on the clock.

I'd love to know what polls showed him with a 20 point lead. As far as I know, the polls thus far have shown Cole leading. And I live in WV, I can feel it in the air; the momentum is clearly with Justice.

http://wvmetronews.com/2016/05/05/justice-again-leads-west-virginia-poll-goodwin-and-kessler-make-up-little-ground/

Well tits. Still think Justice will win tho.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #20 on: August 14, 2016, 02:08:08 PM »

Have we seen Cole lead in a single poll so far? I think the people calling this race Lean R are a bit premature.

Talk to me when Justice is still leading in late September. WV has such a strong republican lean that he has to be considered to have a disadvantage right now. If we had lots of non-internals showing him up by 10, it'd be different, but we don't.

Cole might win, but there's yet to be any evidence that WV doesn't still prefer Democrats in the governor's mansion.  How they vote nationally is only so relevant.

It's relevant when the first elected republican Senator in almost 60 years won every county in the state.

No.  It's not.  That's a national election.  I'm not saying Justice is going to win, but you are looking at this painfully simplistically.  "WV is UBER REPUBLICAN!" is not an intelligent thing to add to this thread, sorry.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #21 on: August 14, 2016, 09:44:42 PM »

Have we seen Cole lead in a single poll so far? I think the people calling this race Lean R are a bit premature.

Talk to me when Justice is still leading in late September. WV has such a strong republican lean that he has to be considered to have a disadvantage right now. If we had lots of non-internals showing him up by 10, it'd be different, but we don't.

Cole might win, but there's yet to be any evidence that WV doesn't still prefer Democrats in the governor's mansion.  How they vote nationally is only so relevant.

No worries. You'll get all the evidence you need on November 8th.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #22 on: August 14, 2016, 09:58:14 PM »

Have we seen Cole lead in a single poll so far? I think the people calling this race Lean R are a bit premature.

Talk to me when Justice is still leading in late September. WV has such a strong republican lean that he has to be considered to have a disadvantage right now. If we had lots of non-internals showing him up by 10, it'd be different, but we don't.

Cole might win, but there's yet to be any evidence that WV doesn't still prefer Democrats in the governor's mansion.  How they vote nationally is only so relevant.

No worries. You'll get all the evidence you need on November 8th.

Quite possible.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #23 on: August 14, 2016, 11:10:03 PM »

I do expect Justice to win, not that it'll do WV any good.  WV is basically if you took Detroit and spread it out over impossible terrain.  Nobody is going to run/win on a campaign of consolidating people into workable locations, so it'll remain a mess of inadequate expensive infrastructure spread across a declining population.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #24 on: August 14, 2016, 11:52:17 PM »

I do expect Justice to win, not that it'll do WV any good.  WV is basically if you took Detroit and spread it out over impossible terrain.  Nobody is going to run/win on a campaign of consolidating people into workable locations, so it'll remain a mess of inadequate expensive infrastructure spread across a declining population.

Dude, we get it. You repeat that like every time WV is mentioned somewhere.

Welp, some people go around claiming they'll "Make coal great again"  while others try to moderate hero their way out of it, so if my being repetitive about reality makes you as angry as a NH women, so be it.
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