The Clinton Coalition and the Northeast

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

Saving for the famous example of Bush winning NH in 2000, the Northeast has not cast one electoral vote for a Republican in 28 years. Think about it, thats a third of most voters lifetimes and almost half the elections they are likely to participate in. It is ironic a Southern Democrat is the one to start this trend against a moderate originally from the Northeast Republican. We know that part of this was the move of the GOP to the religious right and later to downscale Appalachian type whites, while Democrats moderated their economic stands (at least through the first part of Obama's Presidency). So realistically what would it take to make any break in the Northeastern Blue Wall and does anyone see Trump (assuming he gets back on track) making inroads and if not when is it likely to happen? It just seems odd that a whole region would become off-limits to a party without an over-riding issue (e.g the Solid South of late 1800s and early 1900s)
 

[Redban]

It is ironic a Southern Democrat is the one to start this trend against a moderate originally from the Northeast Republican.

I would argue that Dukakis started this trend, as he won NY, Hawaii, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts; and he scored 40% in states like Maine, Illinois, Maryland, Vermont, and New Jersey, etc. It might not sound like much, but after Carter and Mondale's blowout losses, these results were uplifting for Democrats.

Dukakis definitely laid the groundwork for Clinton's 1992 realignment.
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Anyways, to address the topic:

You ask, "realistically what would it take to make any break in the Northeastern Blue Wall?"

To answer this question, you might want to look at voter preferences in the Northeast. When Republicans get elected in local or state elections here, they tend to be socially moderate; if they are socially conservative, then they keep their views quiet while campaigning (e.g. Guilani, Bloomberg, Romney before 2012, Pataki).

Therefore, if the Republicans want to compete in the Northeast, they can start there -- decriminalize marijuana, don't emphasize abortion or gay marriage, defend civil rights more vigorously, etc.

Still, it must be noted that, even if they make these changes, a massive realignment must occur before we see legitimate competition in this area. Of the 10 most Democratic states in 2012, 6 were in the Northeast:

[Mr. Smith]

Bah, the Northeast was pretty much gone that way since 1964. Besides Vermont, NJ, and NH, the rest of the bunch flipped that way for good with Humphrey or were really really close the whole way.

Nixon and Reagan were flukes.

And Carter '76 took up the whole of the blue collar side of the Northeast [and got 51% of the region, and barely lost in '80,...would've won it if not for Anderson], with Maine being very very close both times.

To credit Dukakis and Clinton is as disingenuous as pretending Goldwater and the CRA magically flipped The South for good with nothing before hand.

[hopper]

It is ironic a Southern Democrat is the one to start this trend against a moderate originally from the Northeast Republican.

I would argue that Dukakis started this trend, as he won NY, Hawaii, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts; and he scored 40% in states like Maine, Illinois, Maryland, Vermont, and New Jersey, etc. It might not sound like much, but after Carter and Mondale's blowout losses, these results were uplifting for Democrats.

Dukakis definitely laid the groundwork for Clinton's 1992 realignment.
.
.
.
Anyways, to address the topic:

You ask, "realistically what would it take to make any break in the Northeastern Blue Wall?"

To answer this question, you might want to look at voter preferences in the Northeast. When Republicans get elected in local or state elections here, they tend to be socially moderate; if they are socially conservative, then they keep their views quiet while campaigning (e.g. Guilani, Bloomberg, Romney before 2012, Pataki).

Therefore, if the Republicans want to compete in the Northeast, they can start there -- decriminalize marijuana, don't emphasize abortion or gay marriage, defend civil rights more vigorously, etc.

Still, it must be noted that, even if they make these changes, a massive realignment must occur before we see legitimate competition in this area. Of the 10 most Democratic states in 2012, 6 were in the Northeast:

Wel no not really RI still went for Carter in 1980. Hawaii only goes Republican if there is a Republican Blowout like in 1972 or 1984. Carter even carrid Hawaii in 1980. Massacusetts-It went for McGovern in 1972 but it did go for Reagan both times in 1980(albeit only by 3800 votes because of Anderson taking 15%) and 1984.

New York-You might have a point. The state was still more Dem than the popular vote nationwide in 1984.

Maryland-Carter carried the state in 1980(Anderson took 8%) but Bush HW did carry the state in 1988 as did Reagan in 1984. The States PVI for 1984/1988 was D+4 so it was still a Dem State.