Clinton has a 272 EV Firewall.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

This is looking more and more like an impenetrable wall for Clinton.  Exactly where can Trump realistically crack this?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

thank you mr oc

[Erc]

Pennsylvania seems the most likely, with an outside chance of New Hampshire if he decides to live there for the next 3 months.

Of course, Clinton seems more likely to win Texas at the moment than either of those happening.

[LLR]

Give Nevada to Clinton as well

[Wells]

You spelled freiwal wrong.

[Holmes]

The freiwal holds.

[Gustaf]

Sigh.

[Redban]

Pennsylvania is the critical state; everyone has been saying that for months , and they have spoken so for good reason.

[Nyvin]

Pennsylvania is the critical state; everyone has been saying that for months , and they have spoken so for good reason.

The last 3-4 polls all show Hillary with an 8-11% lead in PA though.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Pennsylvania is the critical state; everyone has been saying that for months , and they have spoken so for good reason.

It's probably the most likely, but it has been slipping away, and fast.  It may go left of the nation.  This map might be the result if Trump wins the PV by 1%.

[Gass3268]

The freiwal holds.

lol yeah, but if Trump is winning NV, he's probably competitive in WI and PA as well.

Which is why it should be a 276 freiwal.

[Mehmentum]

Not this again.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

So exactly how old is the freiwal gag?

[Kingpoleon]

*271 freiwal

[ProudModerate2]

This is looking more and more like an impenetrable wall for Clinton.  Exactly where can Trump realistically crack this?

Almost impossible for trump to do anything.
When you look at this map, you give trump NV, IA, OH, FL, NC, ME-02, and NE-02 ...
and he still is not there yet.
With his gutter numbers right now, he is done !

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

This is looking more and more like an impenetrable wall for Clinton.  Exactly where can Trump realistically crack this?

Almost impossible for trump to do anything.
When you look at this map, you give trump NV, IA, OH, FL, NC, ME-02, and NE-02 ...
and he still is not there yet.
With his gutter numbers right now, he is done !

Even without his terrible numbers.   How much does Trump need to win by, nationally, in order to win:

Pennsylvania?
New Hampshire?
Virginia?
Colorado?

The way polls look now, Trump not only needs a popular vote to pick up any of these, but a significant one.  At least 1%.

[Orser67]

Yeah wow, Trump has got to be concerned about state polling lately. NH, PA, and Va all look horrible for him lately, and the most recent (though outdated) polls CO, WI, and MI don't look good for him either.

[Inmate Trump]

I don't see Trump winning anything in Maine.

Or Iowa.

Or Nevada.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Even without his terrible numbers.   How much does Trump need to win by, nationally, in order to win:

Pennsylvania? Lose the PV by 1
New Hampshire? Win the PV by 10
Virginia? Win the PV by 1
Colorado? Win the PV by 1

Trump is slipping in PA faster than he is nationwide.  The RCP average there is Clinton +8, and Clinton +7.2 nationally.  Trump has, in fact, never led in PA, even when he was leading nationally.  The Keystone State strategy seems to be a fool's errand.  It will probably go left of the nation.

Trump's battleground options are very limited.  If he gets to a small PV plurality, those gains are going to come in battleground states he would easily win anyway - Ohio, Florida, Iowa - or in places where it wouldn't make any difference.

[ProudModerate2]

I don't see Trump winning anything in Maine.
Or Iowa.
Or Nevada.

I think most of us would agree with you.
I believe this map was colored to show an extreme come-back by trump, yet he is still short in EV to win the election.

PS: I feel confident about all of Maine and Nevada being won my Hillary, but I'm don't feel comfortable (yet) with Iowa. Wish we had more numbers from The Hawkeye State.

[Senator-elect Spark]

NH or PA. MI has an outside chance

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I don't see Trump winning anything in Maine.
Or Iowa.
Or Nevada.

I think most of us would agree with you.
I believe this map was colored to show an extreme come-back by trump, yet he is still short in EV to win the election.

The map is colored to show Trump pulling even, or even slightly ahead in the PV.  PA once looked promising.  Even MI did.  At this point the EC is totally stacked against Trump.  He has to play battleground whack-a-mole, whereas a PV victory all but assures Clinton of an EC victory.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Even without his terrible numbers.   How much does Trump need to win by, nationally, in order to win:

Pennsylvania? Lose the PV by 1
New Hampshire? Win the PV by 10
Virginia? Win the PV by 1
Colorado? Win the PV by 1

Trump is slipping in PA faster than he is nationwide.  The RCP average there is Clinton +8, and Clinton +7.2 nationally.  Trump has, in fact, never led in PA, even when he was leading nationally.  The Keystone State strategy seems to be a fool's errand.  It will probably go left of the nation.

Trump's battleground options are very limited.  If he gets to a small PV plurality, those gains are going to come in battleground states he would easily win anyway - Ohio, Florida, Iowa - or in places where it wouldn't make any difference.

Yeah, my guess is that if he wins, he will take either WI or MI.

There hasn't been a post-convention poll in WI that I'm aware of.  Clinton led by double-digits at one point, then dropped to about 5% in July.  I think Trump has a hard ceiling in WI, beyond which the state becomes inelastic.  If Clinton wins big nationally, she'll win big in WI.  But even if Trump wins by 3-4%, he won't break through in WI.

MI is trickier to predict.  The fundamentals favor him much more strongly.  If Trump wins because of an economic collapse, it wouldn't surprise me to see the wave that sweeps him into power including MI.  It's also polling right of the nation (and PA) currently.

This could be Trump's victory map in such a scenario:

[Likely Voter]

If Trump has a great debate or two and pulls it to a very close race is almost certain to hold NC (GA and AZ) and pick up FL and OH and probably IA. VA and CO appear to be drifting away from the center line and WI, MI and MN aren't likely to be tipping points.   

So, once again it appears to come down to PA, NH, NV and ME2. In what order does Trump pick up those states as he gets closer and closer and tips over to a small PV win? I still think that PA flips before all of NH, NV and ME2. Not sure what you count as 'firewall'

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, this could very well happen @Beef. Assuming the race is truly competitive on election day, this is what I'd say the map will look like:

Trump 230
Clinton 226

I'm not convinced FL will be an easy pickup for Trump, even in a close race.