Will Hillary win reelection? (user search)
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  Will Hillary win reelection? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Huh
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
#3
Trump will win in 2016
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 66

Author Topic: Will Hillary win reelection?  (Read 3470 times)
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« on: September 06, 2016, 02:31:00 PM »

I think she will be a lame duck. Though it really doesn't matter. If she can get a D majority on the SCOTUS, Ds will have the luxury of making mistakes in 2020s. Sure Rs can gerrymader, but the new SCOTUS will be more willing to do all kinds of fun things.

What will be interesting too is what will happen if Trump wins and gets to stack the court. Unless there is a universal right-wing consensus that builds past it, the Ds will gain a lot of opportunities.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,667
United States


« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2016, 05:51:54 AM »
« Edited: September 13, 2016, 05:53:27 AM by Spicy Purrito »

I think she will be a lame duck. Though it really doesn't matter. If she can get a D majority on the SCOTUS, Ds will have the luxury of making mistakes in 2020s. Sure Rs can gerrymader, but the new SCOTUS will be more willing to do all kinds of fun things.

What will be interesting too is what will happen if Trump wins and gets to stack the court. Unless there is a universal right-wing consensus that builds past it, the Ds will gain a lot of opportunities.

I'm actually not overly optimistic about SCOTUS.  Sure, she will get to replace Scalia right away (or there's a lame duck Garland confirmation) and take the majority, but it will be a very fragile majority unless Ginsburg and Breyer get out right away.  And if Republicans have the senate, they could force her to replace either of them with a left-Kennedy.  As for Kennedy himself, he knows a Republican senate is virtually assured in 2019, so he has no reason to retire before then.

Of course, Trump would likely have 4 years of free reign to confirm whoever he wanted, but Trump's more of a let's make a deal type than a let's kill the filibuster and ram an ideologue through type.

It could be that the only justice that gets replaced this term is Scalia. Ginsburg might hang on for a while. Even Stevens is still kicking. Maybe the only thing we need to worry about is Trump becoming popular somehow or he does hot potato like Republicans did in the 20s.
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