Will Hillary win reelection?
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  Will Hillary win reelection?
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Poll
Question: Huh
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
#3
Trump will win in 2016
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 66

Author Topic: Will Hillary win reelection?  (Read 3377 times)
AGA
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« Reply #25 on: September 04, 2016, 12:35:51 PM »

Only if the Republicans nominate someone who can actually win. Clinton's low favorability numbers make her a fairly weak general election candidate, so they could have had this election in the bag if they had nominated Kasich. Instead, they picked one of the worst possible candidates to face Clinton. Can they win in 2020? If the Republican party can get its act together and nominate someone with broader appeal, then yes. If they nominate someone like Cruz, probably not.

Also, it depends on whether or not there is a recession during Clinton's first term and how she handles it. It really is hard to tell right now. If I had to give an answer, I would say that she will not get reelected.
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Figueira
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« Reply #26 on: September 05, 2016, 10:06:27 AM »

Knowing the G.O.P, when next election comes, they'll nominate Ted Cruz or some other Reactionary-Lite Conservative and lose. Come 2024 though, I think they'll nominate someone more moderate, but still a Conservative. Can't put a name on that person, because they're likely still in the state legislature.

If they nominate Ted Cruz he'll destroy Hillary Clinton in a landslide like this



Lol, Cruz getting 60%+ in WA
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #27 on: September 05, 2016, 10:23:28 AM »

Knowing the G.O.P, when next election comes, they'll nominate Ted Cruz or some other Reactionary-Lite Conservative and lose. Come 2024 though, I think they'll nominate someone more moderate, but still a Conservative. Can't put a name on that person, because they're likely still in the state legislature.

If they nominate Ted Cruz he'll destroy Hillary Clinton in a landslide like this


I do not see Ted Cruz ever carrying Washington, Oregon, Michigan, Virginia, New Hampshire, and ME-1. He is a very poor fit for all of those states. Also, Cruz would have trouble in North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida as well.
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Figueira
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« Reply #28 on: September 05, 2016, 10:34:12 AM »

Only if the Republicans nominate someone who can actually win. Clinton's low favorability numbers make her a fairly weak general election candidate, so they could have had this election in the bag if they had nominated Kasich. Instead, they picked one of the worst possible candidates to face Clinton. Can they win in 2020? If the Republican party can get its act together and nominate someone with broader appeal, then yes. If they nominate someone like Cruz, probably not.

Also, it depends on whether or not there is a recession during Clinton's first term and how she handles it. It really is hard to tell right now. If I had to give an answer, I would say that she will not get reelected.

I agree with this.

I didn't even notice ME-01, haha.
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NHI
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« Reply #29 on: September 05, 2016, 10:38:46 AM »

Only if the Republicans nominate someone who can actually win. Clinton's low favorability numbers make her a fairly weak general election candidate, so they could have had this election in the bag if they had nominated Kasich. Instead, they picked one of the worst possible candidates to face Clinton. Can they win in 2020? If the Republican party can get its act together and nominate someone with broader appeal, then yes. If they nominate someone like Cruz, probably not.

Also, it depends on whether or not there is a recession during Clinton's first term and how she handles it. It really is hard to tell right now. If I had to give an answer, I would say that she will not get reelected.

I agree with this.
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15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #30 on: September 05, 2016, 12:01:02 PM »

I think Trump's going to win (a slight favorite), but if Clinton wins, a generic Republican would be an overwhelming favorite in 2020.  If it were Clinton vs. Rubio right now, places like Oregon and New Mexico would be Lean Rubio, while tossups would be places like Washington, New Jersey, and Connecticut.  Illinois would be Tilt Clinton, and California would even be Lean Clinton.
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Lothal1
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« Reply #31 on: September 05, 2016, 01:48:33 PM »

No, I completely expect her to lose her popularity well before the 2018 midterms and be below 25% in popularity by 2020.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #32 on: September 05, 2016, 02:51:54 PM »

The Senate map in 2020 looks very favorable for the Dems, Joni Ernst, Tillis look vulnerable. Dems must protect NH and Warner's seat. Chances look good for CLINTON.
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Frodo
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« Reply #33 on: September 06, 2016, 12:22:47 AM »

LOL at the poll results -especially given this site's history of getting the nominees wrong, let alone making election predictions four years in advance. 
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #34 on: September 06, 2016, 02:54:00 AM »

I have long held a nasty feeling that the next election will be of more consequence than the one taking place right now, with the most likely result being President Cruz.
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Person Man
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« Reply #35 on: September 06, 2016, 02:31:00 PM »

I think she will be a lame duck. Though it really doesn't matter. If she can get a D majority on the SCOTUS, Ds will have the luxury of making mistakes in 2020s. Sure Rs can gerrymader, but the new SCOTUS will be more willing to do all kinds of fun things.

What will be interesting too is what will happen if Trump wins and gets to stack the court. Unless there is a universal right-wing consensus that builds past it, the Ds will gain a lot of opportunities.
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cMac36
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« Reply #36 on: September 08, 2016, 10:33:42 PM »

It's an obvious no except for the question of whether the GOP can even hold together for four years let alone win a national election with an only 68% White electorate.

I still voted no because I think if you add all the scenarios up it is slightly more likely that she doesn't win re-election.
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cMac36
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« Reply #37 on: September 08, 2016, 10:35:23 PM »

LOL at the poll results -especially given this site's history of getting the nominees wrong, let alone making election predictions four years in advance. 

Why not?  Why else would we be here?
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Person Man
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« Reply #38 on: September 13, 2016, 05:51:54 AM »
« Edited: September 13, 2016, 05:53:27 AM by Spicy Purrito »

I think she will be a lame duck. Though it really doesn't matter. If she can get a D majority on the SCOTUS, Ds will have the luxury of making mistakes in 2020s. Sure Rs can gerrymader, but the new SCOTUS will be more willing to do all kinds of fun things.

What will be interesting too is what will happen if Trump wins and gets to stack the court. Unless there is a universal right-wing consensus that builds past it, the Ds will gain a lot of opportunities.

I'm actually not overly optimistic about SCOTUS.  Sure, she will get to replace Scalia right away (or there's a lame duck Garland confirmation) and take the majority, but it will be a very fragile majority unless Ginsburg and Breyer get out right away.  And if Republicans have the senate, they could force her to replace either of them with a left-Kennedy.  As for Kennedy himself, he knows a Republican senate is virtually assured in 2019, so he has no reason to retire before then.

Of course, Trump would likely have 4 years of free reign to confirm whoever he wanted, but Trump's more of a let's make a deal type than a let's kill the filibuster and ram an ideologue through type.

It could be that the only justice that gets replaced this term is Scalia. Ginsburg might hang on for a while. Even Stevens is still kicking. Maybe the only thing we need to worry about is Trump becoming popular somehow or he does hot potato like Republicans did in the 20s.
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