Maybe too soon to talk about?
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  Maybe too soon to talk about?
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Author Topic: Maybe too soon to talk about?  (Read 539 times)
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« on: September 11, 2016, 03:05:53 PM »

OK. Let's say Scott Adams is right and Hillary is done. Hillary loses all the swing states and Trump even peels off a blue state or two. The numbers stay about the same down ballot. They are about as worse off on average that the GOP was and probably where they were in the late 1920s. Where do Democrats go after this? Obamacare gets repealled? Do they "give up"? Roe gets overturned. Do they cede abortion? Who do they go after? Where do they look for votes? Who do they put up there? Is there any talk about changing their name or changing the game?
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Virginiá
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« Reply #1 on: September 11, 2016, 03:10:58 PM »

Chances are Trump will be an absolutely terrible president. He clearly knows nothing about policy, is known for not wanting to read/study, has a huge problem with saying controversial things, is irrational and impulsive, has many offensive tendencies, and so on. 2018 would likely hurt Republicans pretty bad, and Trump would ruin the image of Republicans in the eyes of Hispanics and current generation of young people. Let's not forget the chances of a recession even without Trump in the next 4 years, but the markets would not react well to president Trump and his inherent unpredictability. The GOP would eat the blame for any issues with that.

In short - Democrats would benefit a lot in terms of coalition building and rebuilding power downballot, but would lose precious judicial appointments. Honestly the last thing Republicans should want is Trump as president. He's going to absolutely ruin their brand if he carries on like he has for 4 years, with all of the country hearing about his antics and failures on a daily basis.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #2 on: September 11, 2016, 03:16:25 PM »

Chances are Trump will be an absolutely terrible president. He clearly knows nothing about policy, is known for not wanting to read/study, has a huge problem with saying controversial things, is irrational and impulsive, has many offensive tendencies, and so on. 2018 would likely hurt Republicans pretty bad, and Trump would ruin the image of Republicans in the eyes of Hispanics and current generation of young people. Let's not forget the chances of a recession even without Trump in the next 4 years, but the markets would not react well to president Trump and his inherent unpredictability. The GOP would eat the blame for any issues with that.

In short - Democrats would benefit a lot in terms of coalition building and rebuilding power downballot, but would lose precious judicial appointments. Honestly the last thing Republicans should want is Trump as president. He's going to absolutely ruin their brand if he carries on like he has for 4 years, with all of the country hearing about his antics and failures on a daily basis.

The upside risk is that it turns out that he got lucky because Hillary fu'd up and 2018 and 2020 are big years and make 2016 a blip. The downside risk is that he has the skills to avoid accountability or successfully capitalizes on a security, diplomatic, or economic disaster.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #3 on: September 11, 2016, 03:38:25 PM »

The upside risk is that it turns out that he got lucky because Hillary fu'd up and 2018 and 2020 are big years and make 2016 a blip. The downside risk is that he has the skills to avoid accountability or successfully capitalizes on a security, diplomatic, or economic disaster.

Considering a large majority of the country despises Trump, it seems unlikely he can preside over the nation as president and avoid accountability for the issues that besiege it. You could say both Clinton and Trump are lucky to be running against a flawed opponent. Many people voting for Trump aren't necessarily doing so because they have been endeared by him - polls do consistently show that it's a vote against Clinton. It's easier for a well-liked president to be given a pass on certain things, but not for someone as disliked as Trump.

Trump's entire message to people is that he'll "Make America Great Again!", so what happens when it doesn't become great again, and in fact in the event of a recession or international incident, becomes worse? He loses all credibility at that point. I also do not think he has quite 'normalized' his kind of offensive behavior, either, and if continues that in office for literally years, it will turn people against the GOP.

I don't know, that's just my opinion. To me, there is no way a President Trump ends well for the GOP. They will lose an entire generation or more of Hispanics and young people as Trump becomes the symbol of the Republican Party.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #4 on: September 11, 2016, 03:58:24 PM »

OK. Let's say Scott Adams is right and Hillary is done. Hillary loses all the swing states and Trump even peels off a blue state or two. The numbers stay about the same down ballot. They are about as worse off on average that the GOP was and probably where they were in the late 1920s. Where do Democrats go after this? Obamacare gets repealled? Do they "give up"? Roe gets overturned. Do they cede abortion? Who do they go after? Where do they look for votes? Who do they put up there? Is there any talk about changing their name or changing the game?

Obamacare wouldn't get repealed because the GOP won't have 60 votes in the Senate.
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Person Man
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« Reply #5 on: September 11, 2016, 04:01:32 PM »

OK. Let's say Scott Adams is right and Hillary is done. Hillary loses all the swing states and Trump even peels off a blue state or two. The numbers stay about the same down ballot. They are about as worse off on average that the GOP was and probably where they were in the late 1920s. Where do Democrats go after this? Obamacare gets repealled? Do they "give up"? Roe gets overturned. Do they cede abortion? Who do they go after? Where do they look for votes? Who do they put up there? Is there any talk about changing their name or changing the game?

Obamacare wouldn't get repealed because the GOP won't have 60 votes in the Senate.

Could they use reconciliation?
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PresidentSamTilden
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« Reply #6 on: September 11, 2016, 04:25:17 PM »

I think it's possible that Roe and Obamacare both go down with a Trump presidency. Obamacare would have to be replaced though, because it does help a lot of people, and there is general acknowledgement that healthcare is a national problem. What form that would take, I'm not sure, but I do believe people would fight very hard for it - it could be a cornerstone issue for the Dems in the future.

If Roe goes down, well, I don't know. We would have a conservative supreme court for a long time, so it is possible that it stands. In addition, excluding immigration, the population of the US is in decline, so maybe this issue becomes less important in the future.

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PresidentSamTilden
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« Reply #7 on: September 11, 2016, 04:27:31 PM »

One point I forgot to address - there will definitely be no giving up, lol. Times are changing pretty rapidly. I doubt reactionary conservatism will be able to hold back the tide for long.
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Person Man
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« Reply #8 on: September 11, 2016, 05:26:49 PM »

Not give up per se but change the game. Split into smaller parties and run a non-Republican election between the primaries and general as to allow more diverse candidates for more diverse areas. Have a coalition in congress.
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mvd10
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« Reply #9 on: September 12, 2016, 02:57:07 PM »

OK. Let's say Scott Adams is right and Hillary is done. Hillary loses all the swing states and Trump even peels off a blue state or two. The numbers stay about the same down ballot. They are about as worse off on average that the GOP was and probably where they were in the late 1920s. Where do Democrats go after this? Obamacare gets repealled? Do they "give up"? Roe gets overturned. Do they cede abortion? Who do they go after? Where do they look for votes? Who do they put up there? Is there any talk about changing their name or changing the game?

Obamacare wouldn't get repealed because the GOP won't have 60 votes in the Senate.

Could they use reconciliation?

I'm not sure. Reconciliation can be used to repeal Obamacare subsidies and it probably can be used to eliminate the individual mandate, but it can't be used to repeal Obamacare regulations because they don't have a direct impact on the budget. And keeping the Obamacare regulations while repealing the individual mandate will be tricky since the mandate probably is necessary if you want to make sure insurance companies can't deny coverage to patients with pre-existing conditions.
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Frodo
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« Reply #10 on: September 12, 2016, 03:28:32 PM »

I think it's possible that Roe and Obamacare both go down with a Trump presidency. Obamacare would have to be replaced though, because it does help a lot of people, and there is general acknowledgement that healthcare is a national problem. What form that would take, I'm not sure, but I do believe people would fight very hard for it - it could be a cornerstone issue for the Dems in the future.

If Roe goes down, well, I don't know. We would have a conservative supreme court for a long time, so it is possible that it stands. In addition, excluding immigration, the population of the US is in decline, so maybe this issue becomes less important in the future.



Or not.  Given this is Donald Trump we are talking about, he could just as easily do a massive flip-flop on his earlier promises.  It isn't as if he hasn't set precedent throughout this campaign already. 
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
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« Reply #11 on: September 12, 2016, 04:09:54 PM »

I think it's possible that Roe and Obamacare both go down with a Trump presidency.

Roe wouldn't go down under a Trump Presidency, he supports Planned Parenthood and says they're a great organization.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #12 on: September 12, 2016, 06:33:16 PM »

I think it's possible that Roe and Obamacare both go down with a Trump presidency.

Roe wouldn't go down under a Trump Presidency, he supports Planned Parenthood and says they're a great organization.
I don't think he will put his back behind any serious anti-abortion bills, but he will nominate strict constructionist, legal mechanicists, and 1920s-style civic Republicanist to the benches. They only believe that the only rights the constitution protects are the rights to make money.
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