CBS/YouGov-NV: Heck +3

[Heisenberg]

This might be an example of a race where the candidate who leads in every poll (or almost every poll) loses. If Heck's not overperforming Trump by more than 6, he's done.

Heller wasn't really posting big leads in the polls but still held on.

The last PPP poll had him up 2, he won by 1.3 or something.

[Heisenberg]

^Oh, s**t. He polls slightly underestimated Berkley's support (-0.7), but WAY overestimated Heller's support (+2.1). It looks like not including the American Independent (Constitution) candidate was more responsible for Heller's inflated lead than under representing Spanish speakers. Boy will I be pissed if VanDerBeek or whatever his name is spoils the race.

[Heisenberg]

VanDerBeek isn't running this time.

Oh. But the American Independents do have a candidate, but he looks much weaker. There's also a Socialist Party candidate running, but I doubt he'll be a factor.