FL - Suffolk: Rubio +13

[heatcharger]

http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/8_4_2016_marginals.pdf

Rubio 46
Murphy 33

Rubio 45
Grayson 31

lol

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

El Chico is probably ahead, but no way he's outperforming Trump by 17 points.  Big Pat's going to need to run the anti-Trump wave over this cuck.

[Gass3268]

Gonna be a ton of Clinton/Rubio voters in Miami-Dade.

[syntaxerror]

Murphy needs alot of help, but I see this as undecideds being mainly Dem-leaning, but Murphy name-recognition is low.

Rubio's only running ahead of Trump by 4 (46v42) in that case.

[windjammer]

I think it's more because Patrick Murphy isn't well known enough.

Let's see how the race will evolve until the election, I have no doubt Rubio is ahead right now, I still have hopes he will be defeated in the end.

[Xing]

Some of this is name recognition. Rubio probably is ahead and will overperform Trump, but there are many ways in which Murphy can attack him.

[Gass3268]

I think it's more because Patrick Murphy isn't well known enough.

Let's see how the race will evolve until the election, I have no doubt Rubio is ahead right now, I still have hopes he will be defeated in the end.

Agree with this, but I'm also happy that Bayh jumped in for seat #5 (after IL, WI, NH, and PA).

[syntaxerror]

If Clinton actually goes on to win by 6, Murphy should be pulled across the line.

[ElectionsGuy]

But Rubio doomed! Little Marco!!

Obviously he is not up by this much but... my god, Patrick Murphy is overrated.

[Vosem]

Wow, the Murphy fake-CPA scandal really did a number on him. I'm surprised Grayson isn't leading him in the primary.

[Heisenberg]

Wow, the Murphy fake-CPA scandal really did a number on him. I'm surprised Grayson isn't leading him in the primary.

Grayson has his own issues (domestic abuse, I think).

[IceSpear]

This may be the most lavenous poll I have ever seen!

[Talleyrand]

Democrats should triage Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Rubio, Portman, and Toomey are all safe. The only path to a Dem majority is IL+WI+NH+IN. Bayh will decline enough by election day that in the end Dems will only get 48 or 49 seats (47 if they lose Nevada...)

Clinton will have zero coattails.

[Higgs]

Democrats should triage Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Rubio, Portman, and Toomey are all safe. The only path to a Dem majority is IL+WI+NH+IN. Bayh will decline enough by election day that in the end Dems will only get 48 or 49 seats (47 if they lose Nevada...)

Clinton will have zero coattails.

Just checked your political matrix score, why are you a Rubio fan?

[Heisenberg]

Democrats should triage Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Rubio, Portman, and Toomey are all safe. The only path to a Dem majority is IL+WI+NH+IN. Bayh will decline enough by election day that in the end Dems will only get 48 or 49 seats (47 if they lose Nevada...)

Clinton will have zero coattails.

Just checked your political matrix score, why are you a Rubio fan?

And his past endorsements and username. Talleyrand, are you just trolling (like the Kentucky Populist or that faux blue avatar from Colorado)?

[IceSpear]

Democrats should triage Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Rubio, Portman, and Toomey are all safe. The only path to a Dem majority is IL+WI+NH+IN. Bayh will decline enough by election day that in the end Dems will only get 48 or 49 seats (47 if they lose Nevada...)

Clinton will have zero coattails.

Please stop making predictions. You're terrible at it.

[Virginiá]

Clinton will have zero coattails.

Given the level of polarization in America right now, and the fact that it's even worse than 2012 (a great year for straight ticket voting), she will indeed have coattails if she wins. Any candidate who wins would. People aren't splitting tickets nearly as much as they used to, and that won't change this cycle. If she wins by a 6%+ margin and ticket splitting is similar to 2012, the downballot effects will likely be substantial.

Furthermore, the GOP is not going to walk away from this election untarnished by Trump. That's a damn pipe dream.

[SWE]

Democrats should triage Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Rubio, Portman, and Toomey are all safe. The only path to a Dem majority is IL+WI+NH+IN. Bayh will decline enough by election day that in the end Dems will only get 48 or 49 seats (47 if they lose Nevada...)

Clinton will have zero coattails.

Please stop making predictions. You're terrible at it.

iirc Talleyrand had one of the most accurate Senate predictions in 2014 (his governor predictions, however, overestimated the Democrats).

[Gass3268]

Democrats should triage Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Rubio, Portman, and Toomey are all safe. The only path to a Dem majority is IL+WI+NH+IN. Bayh will decline enough by election day that in the end Dems will only get 48 or 49 seats (47 if they lose Nevada...)

Clinton will have zero coattails.

Please stop making predictions. You're terrible at it.

iirc Talleyrand had one of the most accurate Senate predictions in 2014 (his governor predictions, however, overestimated the Democrats).

Yet since he's been wrong at everything.

[IceSpear]

Democrats should triage Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Rubio, Portman, and Toomey are all safe. The only path to a Dem majority is IL+WI+NH+IN. Bayh will decline enough by election day that in the end Dems will only get 48 or 49 seats (47 if they lose Nevada...)

Clinton will have zero coattails.

Please stop making predictions. You're terrible at it.

iirc Talleyrand had one of the most accurate Senate predictions in 2014 (his governor predictions, however, overestimated the Democrats).

Yes, if you predict Democrats are doomed 100% of the time, at some point you will be correct by pure chance.

[Gass3268]

Democrats should triage Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Rubio, Portman, and Toomey are all safe. The only path to a Dem majority is IL+WI+NH+IN. Bayh will decline enough by election day that in the end Dems will only get 48 or 49 seats (47 if they lose Nevada...)

Clinton will have zero coattails.

Please stop making predictions. You're terrible at it.

iirc Talleyrand had one of the most accurate Senate predictions in 2014 (his governor predictions, however, overestimated the Democrats).

Yes, if you predict Democrats are doomed 100% of the time, at some point you will be correct by pure chance.

Not just Democrats but any center-left/left wing party around the world.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Democrats should triage Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Rubio, Portman, and Toomey are all safe. The only path to a Dem majority is IL+WI+NH+IN. Bayh will decline enough by election day that in the end Dems will only get 48 or 49 seats (47 if they lose Nevada...)

Clinton will have zero coattails.

Please stop making predictions. You're terrible at it.

iirc Talleyrand had one of the most accurate Senate predictions in 2014 (his governor predictions, however, overestimated the Democrats).

Yet since he's been wrong at everything.

He was basically the only one on Atlas to predict the 2015 D near-disaster in KY.

[windjammer]

Democrats should triage Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Rubio, Portman, and Toomey are all safe. The only path to a Dem majority is IL+WI+NH+IN. Bayh will decline enough by election day that in the end Dems will only get 48 or 49 seats (47 if they lose Nevada...)

Clinton will have zero coattails.

Please stop making predictions. You're terrible at it.

iirc Talleyrand had one of the most accurate Senate predictions in 2014 (his governor predictions, however, overestimated the Democrats).

Yet since he's been wrong at everything.

He was basically the only one on Atlas to predict the 2015 D near-disaster in KY.

It's not true, I predicted that too.
But him and I were completely wrong regarding LA though.