GA - Atlanta Journal Constitution: Clinton +4 / Clinton +3 (w/ Third Parties)

[HillOfANight]

Probably the best pollster for Georgia. They nailed the presidential races in 2008 and 2012, and in 2014, when most were saying a close race, they gave Perdue a decent lead.

[HillOfANight]

**They don't break that out racially though... Whites generally have higher educational attainment.

[HillOfANight]

She's trailing whites by 40 when Dems usually trail by 50. SurveyUSA and Landmark has confirmed this 40 point margin. If she can get 30% of whites, it's definitely game over.

[HillOfANight]

I doubt Gary Johnson will get 10, but 3 is plausible, so the winner would need just 48.5.

http://www.ajc.com/news/news/romney-tops-obama-in-georgia-as-economy-dominates-/nScjq/
http://www.ajc.com/news/national/georgia-statewide-poll/

Interesting when compared to 2012.

The ATL Exurbs then were 35-61 Obama-Romney, now 33-51 Clinton-Trump.
The ATL Metro was 63-32 for Obama, now 69-20.
SE GA was 41-50 Obama-Romney, now 44-34 Clinton-Trump.
SW GA was 50-45 Obama-Romney, now tied (so 1 area Trump has strength in, or just noise).

College vote was 44-52 Obama-Romney, now flipped 47-36 Clinton-Trump.

[HillOfANight]

She's trailing whites by 40 when Dems usually trail by 50. SurveyUSA and Landmark has confirmed this 40 point margin. If she can get 30% of whites, it's definitely game over.

African-Americans are 30% of the vote and she'll get 90% of that

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/states/exitpolls/georgia.html
http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/GA/senate/

She'll probably get more. Obama got 98% in 2008 and Nunn got 92% in 2014. Maybe 95%+, at least with polls showing Trump getting 1% of the black vote.

[HillOfANight]

An AJC poll in August shows a Democrat leading? No way! Georgia is doomed I tell you. Doomed.

Georgia is the New Jersey of the South. This always happens, just for the Democrats instead of the Republicans. Then reality sets in.  But enjoy it for a few weeks, red avatars.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ga/georgia_romney_vs_obama-2150.html

Please point how this "always happens", because the AJC had him up 8 when the polled in 2012, and everyone except PPP had Romney up at least 7 in 2012.

[HillOfANight]

Hopefully, we continue to see more Clinton leading polls in Georgia.

Just a matter of time.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ga/georgia_trump_vs_clinton-5741.html

Landmark's 7/24 poll Trump +2
Landmark's 7/31 poll was a tie.

[HillOfANight]

So does anyone know what the AJC defines as "Metro Atlanta" versus "Atlanta Exurbs"?

I think you can reconstruct it from this, page 44
http://www.myajc.com/oct-2014-poll/
http://alt.coxnewsweb.com/ajc/_newsapps/2014/pollOctober2014/data/30162_GA_Poll_Banner_FINAL.pdf

For exurbs, I got Bartow, Carroll, Cherokee, Cobb (), Fayette, Forsyth, Gwinnett (), Newton, Paulding

Metro ATL: Henry , Rockdale, Fulton, Douglas, Dekalb, Clayton

I don't know if these groups are the same, they don't have the same detail in the new tab.

[HillOfANight]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia,_2010
Isakson won by 19 in 2010, when Nathan Deal only won by 10 in his governor race. Something of an incumbency factor, plus the fact that he's not a total tea partier.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_gubernatorial_election,_2010

[HillOfANight]

If the crosstabs are statistically meaningful, I'm surprised that Clinton is gaining big on Obama in the rural areas instead of the ATL exurbs?  I would have thought North and South Georgia would be hopelessly Trumpy but the Republican families grossing $100K in the country clubs 1/2 hour out of ATL would be the ones having second thoughts.

Reflexively Republican, Rich Rednecks.... She is gaining in Metro ATL, probably from the Rubio Republicans.
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/georgia
Trump did win Cherokee/Forsyth afterall.