PA-Franklin & Marshall College: Clinton +11
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Author Topic: PA-Franklin & Marshall College: Clinton +11  (Read 5772 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #25 on: August 04, 2016, 04:31:17 AM »

Now, my question is... where is Progressive Canadian?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #26 on: August 04, 2016, 05:57:10 AM »

If Michigan, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania are all going by double digits for Hillary Clinton, then Minnesota and Wisconsin are out of reach.

In practice, Barack Obama has been Ronald Reagan without the social Darwinism, and Hillary Clinton is much the same.
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Saruman
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« Reply #27 on: August 04, 2016, 07:08:23 AM »

Christ what a disaster.
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Cruzcrew
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« Reply #28 on: August 04, 2016, 07:39:19 AM »

I have no doubt that Hilkary is leading in Pennsylvania at this point but I'm just wondering what's the partisan breakdown? An 11 point lead with a 93% white electorate is very high. If this is true, this would be embarrassing considering Romney lost by only 5 with a 78% electorate while not even competing there and he didn't have that working class whites advantage like Trump.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #29 on: August 04, 2016, 07:44:19 AM »

I have no doubt that Hilkary is leading in Pennsylvania at this point but I'm just wondering what's the partisan breakdown? An 11 point lead with a 93% white electorate is very high. If this is true, this would be embarrassing considering Romney lost by only 5 with a 78% electorate while not even competing there and he didn't have that working class whites advantage like Trump.

I think the main driver is suburban white people abandoning Trump
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Saruman
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« Reply #30 on: August 04, 2016, 07:47:50 AM »

I have no doubt that Hilkary is leading in Pennsylvania at this point but I'm just wondering what's the partisan breakdown? An 11 point lead with a 93% white electorate is very high. If this is true, this would be embarrassing considering Romney lost by only 5 with a 78% electorate while not even competing there and he didn't have that working class whites advantage like Trump.

I think the main driver is suburban white people abandoning Trump

Hell, even his #s among WCWs are abysmal.
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Cruzcrew
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« Reply #31 on: August 04, 2016, 07:48:58 AM »

I have no doubt that Hilkary is leading in Pennsylvania at this point but I'm just wondering what's the partisan breakdown? An 11 point lead with a 93% white electorate is very high. If this is true, this would be embarrassing considering Romney lost by only 5 with a 78% electorate while not even competing there and he didn't have that working class whites advantage like Trump.

I think the main driver is suburban white people abandoning Trump

Hell, even his #s among WCWs are abysmal.

I would think that he'd improve on what Romney had with the WCWs and that would partially make up for losses with the suburban whites.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #32 on: August 04, 2016, 07:49:25 AM »
« Edited: August 04, 2016, 07:51:25 AM by Fmr President & Senator Polnut »

I have no doubt that Hilkary is leading in Pennsylvania at this point but I'm just wondering what's the partisan breakdown? An 11 point lead with a 93% white electorate is very high. If this is true, this would be embarrassing considering Romney lost by only 5 with a 78% electorate while not even competing there and he didn't have that working class whites advantage like Trump.

I think the main driver is suburban white people abandoning Trump

Hell, even his #s among WCWs are abysmal.

There was one of the national polls that had Trump at about 56% with WCW but 44% with college Ed whites?

I think whatever increases in the WCW vote Trump is getting is on the margins at best, and he's getting killed by the college ed whites. Wasn't Hillary getting 60% in the Philly suburbs?
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Brittain33
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« Reply #33 on: August 04, 2016, 09:46:31 AM »

But muh Cambria County
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Gass3268
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« Reply #34 on: August 04, 2016, 09:52:46 AM »
« Edited: August 04, 2016, 10:00:14 AM by Gass3268 »

I have no doubt that Hilkary is leading in Pennsylvania at this point but I'm just wondering what's the partisan breakdown? An 11 point lead with a 93% white electorate is very high. If this is true, this would be embarrassing considering Romney lost by only 5 with a 78% electorate while not even competing there and he didn't have that working class whites advantage like Trump.

I think the main driver is suburban white people abandoning Trump

Hell, even his #s among WCWs are abysmal.

There was one of the national polls that had Trump at about 56% with WCW but 44% with college Ed whites?

I think whatever increases in the WCW vote Trump is getting is on the margins at best, and he's getting killed by the college ed whites. Wasn't Hillary getting 60% in the Philly suburbs?

That Philly suburbs number is similar to what Marist had too before the RNC.

Clinton is also winning white voters with a college degree by 30% and White Catholics by 6%.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #35 on: August 04, 2016, 10:01:41 AM »

The NH poll was a thing of beauty, but this is even better.
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dspNY
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« Reply #36 on: August 04, 2016, 10:03:41 AM »

The NH poll was a thing of beauty, but this is even better.

Yup, Kerry (including PA + NH) + NM + VA + CO = Democratic president
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #37 on: August 04, 2016, 10:10:11 AM »

trump's gonna kill it in luzerne county though, and win back those reagan democrats and....
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #38 on: August 04, 2016, 10:13:09 AM »

trump's gonna kill it in luzerne county though, and win back those reagan democrats and....
I heard they're going to rise out of their cemeteries in millions and help Trulp carry Pennsylvania!
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RJEvans
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« Reply #39 on: August 04, 2016, 11:30:42 AM »

Is there a reason 538 have not added this poll to their model?
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #40 on: August 04, 2016, 11:34:02 AM »

Is there a reason 538 have not added this poll to their model?

No idea... and the last F&M poll is in there, so they do include this pollster.
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #41 on: August 04, 2016, 02:03:20 PM »

Crickets from our Trump-supporting blue avatars.

Can't wait to read Seriously?'s hilarious spin of this poll. "Big Don is right: the polls are rigged! The election is rigged! Crooked Hillary has bought out all the polling firms!"
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #42 on: August 04, 2016, 02:14:46 PM »

Is there a reason 538 have not added this poll to their model?

No idea... and the last F&M poll is in there, so they do include this pollster.
It's in there now, though rightly getting very little weight. Polls-only now has PA at 77/23 for Clinton.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #43 on: August 04, 2016, 02:53:49 PM »

Crickets from our Trump-supporting blue avatars.
Can't wait to read Seriously?'s hilarious spin of this poll. "Big Don is right: the polls are rigged! The election is rigged! Crooked Hillary has bought out all the polling firms!"

I'm sure Seriously is having a tantrum at the moment.
Give him a couple of hours to gather himself, he is a mess right now.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #44 on: August 04, 2016, 03:05:37 PM »

Trump getting drubbed in the Philly suburbs by 40 points. DISASTER!
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #45 on: August 04, 2016, 03:09:52 PM »

Do post-convention bumps generally look this disastrous for the other candidate or is Trump just that much uniquely in a horrible position?
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #46 on: August 04, 2016, 03:17:35 PM »

trump's gonna kill it in luzerne county though, and win back those reagan democrats and....

I heard they're going to rise out of their cemeteries in millions and help Trulp carry Pennsylvania!

Oh crap !
There rising from the dead now !
You had to say something ! ?
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #47 on: August 04, 2016, 03:19:19 PM »

Do post-convention bumps generally look this disastrous for the other candidate or is Trump just that much uniquely in a horrible position?
Gore had a 8 point bounce in 2000
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #48 on: August 04, 2016, 03:20:21 PM »

Do post-convention bumps generally look this disastrous for the other candidate or is Trump just that much uniquely in a horrible position?
Gore had a 8 point bounce in 2000

At the state level as well?
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dspNY
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« Reply #49 on: August 04, 2016, 03:25:28 PM »

Do post-convention bumps generally look this disastrous for the other candidate or is Trump just that much uniquely in a horrible position?
Gore had a 8 point bounce in 2000

Gore was down double digits or close to that before the 2000 DNC IIRC
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