I have moved this race back to Leans R, which is where I had it before the primary. Toomey doesn't appear to be landsliding, but it really should be noted that only one potentially reliable poll has had McGinty ahead, and that was Marist, which is known for its democratic house effect. I would still definitely be surprised by a McGinty victory in the end.
(Suffolk is not in any way reliable as it was conducted DURING the D convention)
Which is why I don't have this at Likely R anymore.
Lean R is too GOP biased too. I can see Tilt R, but in all honesty in a state like PA with straight ticket voting, I dont see how Toomey over performs Trump by 5 or more points.
