CNN/ORC poll: Clinton +9

[Ronnie]

Well, I'm really glad I didn't change my prediction map for a while!  I'll probably adjust it slightly until the GE, but I suspect the eventual result will be closer to it than anyone had suspected.

[Phony Moderate]

It's over folks!

Far from it. I might concur if polls remain this way next month, however.

I would've agreed if this was a month ago, but it's August now. There are no conventions to be had, and three debates (if Trump even shows up) are really the only major political events happening from now till the election. To me it's just unlikely there's anything Trump could do to retake the lead. He got his temporary lead with the RNC and the DNC email leak, but that's all the past now.

Normal people (i.e. people who don't obsessively follow politics) aren't paying much attention atm and won't until October. This election is markedly different from all other recent ones and nothing can be certain. Clinton is the favorite, but both candidates are unpopular which makes more potential for fluidity (just as two popular candidates does: see 2000).

[Fargobison]

Wow...Fitting these numbers come out on the day one of the architects of the 2012 GOP autopsy declares she is voting for Clinton...

]Non-white voters (CNN):

Clinton fave: 61/32
Trump fave: 9/88 !
2-way: HRC 83%, Trump 12%
4-way: HRC 72%, Johnson 8%, Stein 8%, Trump 7%

[Trapsy]

I don't know but I don't trust CNN's pollster.

[Senator-elect Spark]

It's over folks!

Far from it. I might concur if polls remain this way next month, however.

I would've agreed if this was a month ago, but it's August now. There are no conventions to be had, and three debates (if Trump even shows up) are really the only major political events happening from now till the election. To me it's just unlikely there's anything Trump could do to retake the lead. He got his temporary lead with the RNC and the DNC email leak, but that's all the past now.

I'm not entirely sure how the debates will unfold but Trump certainly has a chance and should not be underestimated once they begin. Hillary is a better debater, but Trump is a better entertainer

[RJEvans]

I don't know but I don't trust CNN's pollster.

I don't either, but if you take all the polls post convention, you can't deny Clinton has a decent lead right now.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Yeah, this poll is likely an outlier.  We can though conclude, that if Trump's bounce was about 3-4 pps, Hillary's is 6-10.

[/]

XD

[Wells]

Wow...Fitting these numbers come out on the day one of the architects of the 2012 GOP autopsy declares she is voting for Clinton...

]Non-white voters (CNN):

Clinton fave: 61/32
Trump fave: 9/88 !
2-way: HRC 83%, Trump 12%
4-way: HRC 72%, Johnson 8%, Stein 8%, Trump 7%

!!! Wow. What happened to Trump's great relationship?

[Wells]

Yeah, this poll is probably an outlier.  We can though conclude, that if Trump's bounce was about 3-4 pps, Hillary's is 6-10.

If you think this is an outlier, what do you make of RABA? I thnk this is pretty much where the race is at.

[Ebsy]

Great honor!

[Trapsy]

I don't know but I don't trust CNN's pollster.

I don't either, but if you take all the polls post convention, you can't deny Clinton has a decent lead right now.

The national polls can be really skewed a certain way. State polls give a clearer picture of the election. but the demographics are good indicators.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

This makes the LAT/USC tracking poll as the only one to show a Trump lead and thats a bit of an outlier. Trump just has to gain voters somewhere and he's putting more effort into losing voters.

Hillary is campaigning in Omaha right now. I bet NE-2 stands a decent chance of flipping again. If he's juggling between OH, PA, and FL with GA and NC right on the tipping point, he needs much more than organization to compete

[Dr. Arch]

#MagicOver50. Glorious.

[Brittain33]

Party ID: 28D/24R/48I

So both Dems and Repubs are underrepresented here

I can believe both parties are bleeding members to "I" with these candidates.

[ProudModerate2]

Between this poll, the PPP poll in PA, and the polls in NV and GA, today has been a good day for Clinton... as evidenced by the recent update to 538... huge swing towards Clinton - everything looking pre-FBI now.

She might even have room to improve with Trump attacking a gold star family and being a traitor, which might not have been fully captured in these recent polls.

I agree.
I think there is more gain to be had, from the trump debacle on his disparaging remarks to the Khan family.
Not much though, just a little. But "a little" goes a long way.

[Xing]

Hillary's getting a bounce, to be sure, and I expect her numbers to come back to Earth a bit in a week, but man, I'm going to enjoy these numbers while they last (and maybe they will last longer than I'm expecting!)

[IceSpear]

ATLAS BTFO

LOW ENERGY SHILL BOTS ON SUICIDE WATCH.

You can't stump the trump, fool.

https://morningconsult.com/2016/07/25/trump-surges-past-clinton-post-convention-bump/

Dems will be like

Time for democrats to freak out. Your losing to a CLOWN!! Turns out there is someone just as hated as Trump and it's Hillary. Good job.

68% of Americans don't find her honest or trustworthy. I don't even think Nixon had it that bad.

Hahaha even Reuters/Ipsos which was consistently +10% - +13% for Clinton has Trump in the lead. Hillbots BTFO.

LOL

[PresidentSamTilden]

Hillary's getting a bounce, to be sure, and I expect her numbers to come back to Earth a bit in a week, but man, I'm going to enjoy these numbers while they last (and maybe they will last longer than I'm expecting!)

This is where I'm at, lol...i'm sure it will tighten again, but just look at the 538 model...it's all blue again...so beautiful, lol. And Trump's disgraceful comments this week might actually sink him lower

[Dr. Arch]

Hillary's getting a bounce, to be sure, and I expect her numbers to come back to Earth a bit in a week, but man, I'm going to enjoy these numbers while they last (and maybe they will last longer than I'm expecting!)

This is where I'm at, lol...i'm sure it will tighten again, but just look at the 538 model...it's all blue again...so beautiful, lol. And Trump's disgraceful comments this week might actually sink him lower

What I'm thinking is that his comments will solidify the bounce rather than let it behave as a normal bounce would.

[pbrower2a]

Yeah, this poll is likely an outlier.  We can though conclude, that if Trump's bounce was about 3-4 pps, Hillary's is 6-10.

This is consistent with my conjecture that Hillary Clinton and Democrats on the whole solved more of their problems going into their convention than Donald Trump and Republicans did with theirs.

My prediction: this Presidential campaign is going to be a war of largely negative ads; Democrats can hit Donald Trump from the Left on economics and from the Right on foreign policy and national defense. Donald Trump's lack of political or military experience already hurts him.

It is too early for me to predict the outcome of this Presidential election aside from guessing that Donald Trump needs a 'negative miracle' like a Presidential scandal*, a natural disaster that the President bungles*, a gigantic gaffe by Clinton or Kaine, an economic meltdown, or a disaster of military or foreign policy attributable to Barack Obama. Without one of those I project that Donald Trump has less than a 1% chance of winning the Presidency. I yielded about a 4% chance to Mitt Romney in a similar stage of the race in 2012 barring such a ;negative miracle'.  

*don't count on this, as the President has the most squeaky-clean administration since World War II and he has shown unusual competence in meeting natural disasters. The sort of disaster that President Obama can't handle is on the scale of a supervolcano eruption, a collision between some significant space body an Earth, or a gigantic tsunami after which the least of any American's problems is Presidential politics.    

[IceSpear]

Hillary's getting a bounce, to be sure, and I expect her numbers to come back to Earth a bit in a week, but man, I'm going to enjoy these numbers while they last (and maybe they will last longer than I'm expecting!)

This is where I'm at, lol...i'm sure it will tighten again, but just look at the 538 model...it's all blue again...so beautiful, lol. And Trump's disgraceful comments this week might actually sink him lower

What I'm thinking is that his comments will solidify the bounce rather than let it behave as a normal bounce would.

Eh, I doubt it. Nobody will remember his comments in a month. Remember that Americans have the attention span of a goldfish. Very few things make a lasting impact on the election unless they occur right before it.

Don't make the mistake the right wing trolls and left wing concern trolls did last week. This is still a bounce and her numbers will likely come back down to earth, particularly for CNN's poll which is notoriously volatile. PPP on the other hand seems to be fairly consistently showing a 2012 redux race, which is interesting.

[dspNY]

Kaine extremely popular at +16 but 38% either don't know who he is or have no opinion (so a very good choice by Hillary)
Pence at -2 (some of it being near the radioactive Trump)
Hillary at -11 (42-53, but way better than before the convention)
Trump submerged at -26 (35-61)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Kaine extremely popular at +16 but 38% either don't know who he is or have no opinion (so a very good choice by Hillary)
Pence at -2 (some of it being near the radioactive Trump)
Hillary at -11 (42-53, but way better than before the convention)
Trump submerged at -26 (35-61)

I think Trump is 33-61 for -28?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

 Beautiful!