PA-PPP: Toomey +1

[The Other Castro]

Pat Toomey - 42%
Katie McGinty - 41%
Undecided - 17%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PennsylvaniaMiscellaneousResultsJuly2016.pdf

[The Other Castro]

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  8m8 minutes ago
One thing that bodes well for McGinty in Senate race- undecideds support Clinton over Trump 46/34- room to grow

[swf541]

McGinty is going to pull it off Clinton wins by 4 or more.

[Gass3268]

Excellent, all McGinty needs to do is hug Clinton and it will be over. Lean D.

[Xing: Tanned, Vaccinated, and Ready]

B-b-b-b-but muh Toomey +10 Q poll! Obviously this is unwinnable for Democrats and Toomey is safe, I mean, McGinty is a worse candidate than Akin and Braley combined! Likely/Safe R!

[Chief Justice windjammer]

I never understood why people believed that Toomey was extremely favored or whatever. Mcginty isn't a disastrous candidate (although indeed democrats could have done better) and Toomey isn't some talented politician either, winning by only 2 points in 2010 is definitely not impressive.

[Lincoln Councillor Dwarven Dragon]

I have moved this race back to Leans R, which is where I had it before the primary. Toomey doesn't appear to be landsliding, but it really should be noted that only one potentially reliable poll has had McGinty ahead, and that was Marist, which is known for its democratic house effect. I would still definitely be surprised by a McGinty victory in the end.

(Suffolk is not in any way reliable as it was conducted DURING the D convention)

[Chief Justice windjammer]

I have moved this race back to Leans R, which is where I had it before the primary. Toomey doesn't appear to be landsliding, but it really should be noted that only one potentially reliable poll has had McGinty ahead, and that was Marist, which is known for its democratic house effect. I would still definitely be surprised by a McGinty victory in the end.

(Suffolk is not in any way reliable as it was conducted DURING the D convention)

I do agree with regarding Marist. But this time we have a poll made by a decent/good polling firm that shows Mcginty only trailing by 1 point.

[Lincoln Councillor Dwarven Dragon]

I have moved this race back to Leans R, which is where I had it before the primary. Toomey doesn't appear to be landsliding, but it really should be noted that only one potentially reliable poll has had McGinty ahead, and that was Marist, which is known for its democratic house effect. I would still definitely be surprised by a McGinty victory in the end.

(Suffolk is not in any way reliable as it was conducted DURING the D convention)

I do agree with regarding Marist. But this time we have a poll made by a decent/good polling firm that shows Mcginty only trailing by 1 point.

Which is why I don't have this at Likely R anymore.

[swf541]

I have moved this race back to Leans R, which is where I had it before the primary. Toomey doesn't appear to be landsliding, but it really should be noted that only one potentially reliable poll has had McGinty ahead, and that was Marist, which is known for its democratic house effect. I would still definitely be surprised by a McGinty victory in the end.

(Suffolk is not in any way reliable as it was conducted DURING the D convention)

I do agree with regarding Marist. But this time we have a poll made by a decent/good polling firm that shows Mcginty only trailing by 1 point.

Which is why I don't have this at Likely R anymore.

Lean R is too GOP biased too.  I can see Tilt R, but in all honesty in a state like PA with straight ticket voting, I dont see how Toomey over performs Trump by 5 or more points.

[Gass3268]

I have moved this race back to Leans R, which is where I had it before the primary. Toomey doesn't appear to be landsliding, but it really should be noted that only one potentially reliable poll has had McGinty ahead, and that was Marist, which is known for its democratic house effect. I would still definitely be surprised by a McGinty victory in the end.

(Suffolk is not in any way reliable as it was conducted DURING the D convention)

I do agree with regarding Marist. But this time we have a poll made by a decent/good polling firm that shows Mcginty only trailing by 1 point.

Which is why I don't have this at Likely R anymore.

Lean R is too GOP biased too.  I can see Tilt R, but in all honesty in a state like PA with straight ticket voting, I dont see how Toomey over performs Trump by 5 or more points.

Forgot that PA allowed straight ticket voting, even stronger chance that McGinty wins.

[Lincoln Councillor Dwarven Dragon]

I have moved this race back to Leans R, which is where I had it before the primary. Toomey doesn't appear to be landsliding, but it really should be noted that only one potentially reliable poll has had McGinty ahead, and that was Marist, which is known for its democratic house effect. I would still definitely be surprised by a McGinty victory in the end.

(Suffolk is not in any way reliable as it was conducted DURING the D convention)

I do agree with regarding Marist. But this time we have a poll made by a decent/good polling firm that shows Mcginty only trailing by 1 point.

Which is why I don't have this at Likely R anymore.

Lean R is too GOP biased too.  I can see Tilt R, but in all honesty in a state like PA with straight ticket voting, I dont see how Toomey over performs Trump by 5 or more points.

I don't use a tilt category

[Gass3268]

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[Vosem]

Concerning.

[Heisenberg]

Concerning.

I'm hoping it's the post-convention bump, but still. I wonder how polls will be in about 2-3 weeks.