pbrower2a
Atlas Star
Posts: 26,842
|
|
« on: August 01, 2016, 06:40:12 AM » |
|
Obama won by about 7% in 2008 and by 4% in 2012. Both times the races began with projections of virtual ties.
Barring extreme gaffes, an economic meltdown, or some international disaster, Donald Trump has no real chance. At this stage Mitt Romney had a chance, but it was a long-shot that depended upon him winning four disparate states scattered across the country (Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia) in which he had 50-50 chances of winning.
7% lead? If so she is ahead in all four states or may be trading Ohio for Georgia or Arizona. Here's one Presidential election with about a 7% margin at the end:
FDR vs. Dewey, 1944
and another:
George H W Bush vs. Dukakis, 1988
and another:
Obama vs. McCain, 2008
The first one looks like "Don't change horses in the middle of the stream", a slogan used in 1864. 2016 is nothing like that. The other two involve late-season collapses.
|