Morning Consult (post-DNC): Clinton+3
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  Morning Consult (post-DNC): Clinton+3		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Morning Consult (post-DNC): Clinton+3  (Read 1104 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: July 31, 2016, 03:53:17 AM »
Before the RNC it was Clinton+2.

After the RNC, they had Trump+4.

Now, they have Clinton+3.

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http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/07/30/clinton-caravan-rolls-into-youngstown.html
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2016, 03:53:58 AM »
So, according to MC Trump got a 6% bump and Clinton a 7% bump.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2016, 03:55:43 AM »
Yeah, I suspected that, after the DNC, we'd be back to square one, before the conventions began.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: July 31, 2016, 03:57:29 AM »
Which means both the LA Times and the RABA national polls are very likely big outliers.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #4 on: July 31, 2016, 04:01:43 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on July 31, 2016, 03:57:29 AM
Which means both the LA Times and the RABA national polls are very likely big outliers.

To be fair, LA Times started at Trump +3 when the HuffPost average was Clinton +3, so it started as an outlier.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #5 on: July 31, 2016, 06:03:33 AM »
as has been mentioned numerous times, the LA Times/USC poll is a rolling 7 day average, if it shows Trump leading by August 3rd or 4th then you can call it an outlier.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #6 on: July 31, 2016, 06:16:56 AM »
Quote from: dfwlibertylover on July 31, 2016, 06:03:33 AM
as has been mentioned numerous times, the LA Times/USC poll is a rolling 7 day average, if it shows Trump leading by August 3rd or 4th then you can call it an outlier.

I see no reason not to call it one, as I said, it kicked off with a sample of +3 Trump against a national average of +3 Clinton.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #7 on: July 31, 2016, 06:41:52 AM »
The #s were now posted on the MC page:

1931 RV, July 29-30:

43% Clinton (+2 compared with early July)
40% Trump (+1)

41% Clinton (+3)
36% Trump (+1)
11% Johnson (nc)

https://morningconsult.com/2016/07/31/presidential-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #8 on: July 31, 2016, 06:50:10 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on July 31, 2016, 06:41:52 AM
The #s were now posted on the MC page:

1931 RV, July 29-30:

43% Clinton (+2 compared with early July)
40% Trump (+1)

41% Clinton (+3)
36% Trump (+1)
11% Johnson (nc)

https://morningconsult.com/2016/07/31/presidential-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump
Seems reasonable to me!

When will they switch to LV?
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #9 on: July 31, 2016, 07:31:01 AM »
Hold up! Right before the RNC really isn't a good starting point as Clinton had JUST been hurt by the Comey press conference. This makes it very hard to measure any bounces. That whole indictment affair probably took the race from Clinton +7 to Clinton +3, but how much of her bounce back now is due to the convention and how much is due to the Comey story fading into the background? Very hard to tell. If the race is Clinton +3 now, then it is still closer than pre-Comey.
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LLR
LongLiveRock
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« Reply #10 on: July 31, 2016, 08:57:17 AM »
A lead is a lead. I'll take it.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #11 on: July 31, 2016, 09:54:15 AM »
I like how Tender thinks he is the authority on the size of the polling bounce.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #12 on: August 01, 2016, 08:27:31 AM »
Call me in early September when the polls actually mean something :-)
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #13 on: August 01, 2016, 08:40:35 AM »
Quote from: The Vorlon on August 01, 2016, 08:27:31 AM
Call me in early September when the polls actually mean something :-)

Post your phone #.  Otherwise, how are we supposed to call you?  Huh
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