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November 25, 2020, 10:48:41 PM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

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  CBS News national: Hillary up by 7 (and 6)
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Author Topic: CBS News national: Hillary up by 7 (and 6)  (Read 1159 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: August 01, 2016, 05:40:48 AM »

2-way (without leaners):

46% Clinton
39% Trump

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http://www.cbsnews.com/news/campaign-2016-did-hillary-clinton-get-a-post-convention-bump
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Free Bird
TheHawk
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E: 0.84, S: -5.48

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« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2016, 05:51:29 AM »

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Chief Justice windjammer
windjammer
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« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2016, 05:56:03 AM »

2-way (without leaners):

46% Clinton
39% Trump

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http://www.cbsnews.com/news/campaign-2016-did-hillary-clinton-get-a-post-convention-bump
That wasn't Trump +1 before?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2016, 05:57:47 AM »

2-way (without leaners):

46% Clinton
39% Trump

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http://www.cbsnews.com/news/campaign-2016-did-hillary-clinton-get-a-post-convention-bump
That wasn't Trump +1 before?

Yeah, it was T+1 last week and C+6 in June.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2016, 05:58:52 AM »

Lovely
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #5 on: August 01, 2016, 05:59:02 AM »

So we are back to pre-Comey levels.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #6 on: August 01, 2016, 06:02:09 AM »

Yay! Grin
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #7 on: August 01, 2016, 06:02:23 AM »


Hillary might get a few extra points this week because of Trump's idiotic smear campaign against the Muslim parents.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #8 on: August 01, 2016, 06:17:45 AM »
« Edited: August 01, 2016, 06:26:41 AM by LittleBigPlanet »

Clinton is +5 in 3-way with Johnson.

wihtout leaners:
                     Total Rep Dem Ind Jul16c
 
Hillary Clinton 41 8 80 31 38
Donald Trump 36 76 8 33 38
Gary Johnson 10 7 4 15 11
Other (vol.) 2 1 * 3 1
Won't vote (vol.) 3 1 1 6 2
Depends (vol.) 2 1 3 3 3
Don't know/No answer 6 5 4 9 6

With leanders:
Clinton 43 9 82 34 39
Trump 38 78 10 35 40
Johnson 10 8 5 17 12
Other (vol.) 2 2 1 4 2
Won't vote (vol.) 3 2 1 6 3
Don't know/No Answer 3 1 2 4 4
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #9 on: August 01, 2016, 06:25:03 AM »

Also interesting that Hillary's favourable ratings are still in the dumpster after the convention (36-50), but Trump's are of course even worse.

And it seems that Johnson/Weld are already an established power by now that won't go away easily, as he's pulling in 5% of Dems, 8% of Republicans and almost 1/5th of Indys.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #10 on: August 01, 2016, 06:40:12 AM »

Obama won by about 7% in 2008 and by 4% in 2012. Both times the races began with projections of virtual ties.

Barring extreme gaffes, an economic meltdown, or some international disaster, Donald Trump has no real chance. At this stage Mitt Romney had a chance, but it was a long-shot that depended upon him winning four disparate states scattered across the country (Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia) in which he had 50-50 chances of winning.

7% lead? If so she is ahead in all four states or may be trading Ohio for Georgia or Arizona.
Here's one Presidential election with about a 7% margin at the end:



FDR vs. Dewey, 1944

and another:



George H W Bush vs. Dukakis, 1988

and another:



Obama vs. McCain, 2008

The first one looks like "Don't change horses in the middle of the stream", a slogan used in 1864. 2016 is nothing like that. The other two involve late-season collapses. 
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #11 on: August 01, 2016, 06:55:45 AM »

Also interesting that Hillary's favourable ratings are still in the dumpster after the convention (36-50), but Trump's are of course even worse.

And it seems that Johnson/Weld are already an established power by now that won't go away easily, as he's pulling in 5% of Dems, 8% of Republicans and almost 1/5th of Indys.

To be fair, fwiw, Clinton's personal ratings in these polls have been much worse than elsewhere.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #12 on: August 01, 2016, 06:55:51 AM »

Freedom poll!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #13 on: August 01, 2016, 09:26:42 AM »

Should Johnson and Weld get money (especially Koch-aine) behind them, then they are going to show what good campaigners they really are. Johnson and Weld are comparatively liberal for Republicans, but they are more orthodox Republicans than Trump. Seasoned politicians (both Johnson and Weld have held one of two the offices that successful candidates for the Presidency usually have -- Governor -- they both have an edge over Trump.

They should do better than Anderson in 1980 and Perot in either 1992 or 1996 based upon their prior achievements in political life. 
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #14 on: August 01, 2016, 02:12:29 PM »

They should do better than Anderson in 1980 and Perot in either 1992 or 1996 based upon their prior achievements in political life. 

That's obviously not going to happen though.
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amdcpus
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« Reply #15 on: August 01, 2016, 02:13:22 PM »

Should Johnson and Weld get money (especially Koch-aine) behind them, then they are going to show what good campaigners they really are. Johnson and Weld are comparatively liberal for Republicans, but they are more orthodox Republicans than Trump. Seasoned politicians (both Johnson and Weld have held one of two the offices that successful candidates for the Presidency usually have -- Governor -- they both have an edge over Trump.

They should do better than Anderson in 1980 and Perot in either 1992 or 1996 based upon their prior achievements in political life. 

Yea I'd like to see them do well but I don't see them getting 20%.
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Free Bird
TheHawk
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« Reply #16 on: August 01, 2016, 02:15:16 PM »

Everyone here celebrating needs to remember the bounce effect
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Ebsy
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« Reply #17 on: August 01, 2016, 03:10:35 PM »

Everyone here celebrating needs to remember the bounce effect
Well, in this poll, Trump got 0 bounce and Clinton got a 7 point bounce.
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