Post-Convention polling

[jimrtex]

Kansas, Remington Research.

Trump - 44%
Clinton - 37%
Johnson - 8%
Stein - 2%

http://m.cjonline.com/news/state/2016-09-01/sam-brownback-viewed-unfavorably-70-percent-confidential-gop-poll-blamed



Hardly consistent with a Trump charge.

Virginia, Emerson College polling:

44% Clinton (D)
43% Trump (R)
11% Johnson (L)
3% Green (G)

Link.


Extremely consistent with a Trump surge. But note an error -- "Green", and not "Stein" is mentioned. That might tempt me to call a foul.  Not using this.

Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  

Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  





Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear

Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

Isn't it Trump with +18 lead in West Virginia?

[jimrtex]

Yes -- it is an eighteen-point lead. 49-31. But that is still less than 50%, and the rules of the map so show such. Hillary Clinton is absolutely not going to win West Virginia.   

Donald Trump will probably end up winning West Virginia about 60-40 in a binary election even in a landslide by Hillary Clinton resembling one of Eisenhower in the 1950s... West Virginia is now about as solid R in Presidential elections as any state can be, and it isn't simply a rejection of Barack Obama anymore.

So if Clinton were replaced with Joe Manchin, West Virginia would look like Kentucky rather than Pennsylvania?

What does the 7 in "18/7" indicate?  18 is the difference between 49 and 31, but what about 7.