VA - RABA - Trump +4

[Gustaf]

I think every poll from this pollster must be taken with a serious grain of salt. There's no way Clinton is up 15 nationally and there's no way she's down 4 in VA with a VP from there, even when you factor bounces in one way or another

That applies literally to all the polls, since MOE is usually about 3-6 pps. So even if we has a perfectly conducted poll, the margin of victory could be 6-12 off due to it's JUST A POLL.

Ah, no.

Oh yeah!

No, you don't understand how confidence intervals work.