PPP-National: Clinton +5

[Mr. Morden]

Trump in 4th place with blacks:

Clinton 89%
Johnson 4%
Stein 4%
Trump 2%

[Devout Centrist]

PPP usually shows some of the worst favorables of any polling firm. I wonder if Clinton will actually be NET POSITIVE in any of the polls that come out in the next few days.

Possible, but I doubt it.

[Fusionmunster]

PPP usually shows some of the worst favorables of any polling firm. I wonder if Clinton will actually be NET POSITIVE in any of the polls that come out in the next few days.

If I had to guess, CNN and ABC's polls might. They've generally been abit more generous with her favourables this cycle.

[Dr. Arch]

PPP usually shows some of the worst favorables of any polling firm. I wonder if Clinton will actually be NET POSITIVE in any of the polls that come out in the next few days.

If I had to guess, CNN and ABC's polls might.

Reuters

[Yank2133]

Hillmentum?

[Devout Centrist]

"Trump used fear. But nothing happened..."

"He kept going and crashed..."

"Trump hurt himself in the confusion!"

[Thomas D]

Trump in 4th place with blacks:

Clinton 89%
Johnson 4%
Stein 4%
Trump 2%

Jeez...

[Maxwell]

Clinton leads among Hispanics 67-18, African Americans 92-2, Others 48-37, while Trump leads with Whites by 56-40. That is impressive cross tabs and somewhat believable too.

Also a lot of that undecided courting will be among youths 18 to 29... who would support Obama vs. Trump 67-31, but only back Clinton 51-34, with a whopping 15% undecided. They also actually support #LockHerUp 40-39, even as voters overall oppose #LockingHerUP 36-51.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Clinton leads among Hispanics 67-18, African Americans 92-2, Others 48-37, while Trump leads with Whites by 56-40. That is impressive cross tabs and somewhat believable too.

Also a lot of that undecided courting will be among youths 18 to 29... who would support Obama vs. Trump 67-31, but only back Clinton 51-34, with a whopping 15% undecided. They also actually support #LockHerUp 40-39, even as voters overall oppose #LockingHerUP 36-51.

Social media bubbles are a hell of a drug. But to be fair, it's small sample so who knows.

[psychprofessor]

ppp is average - all automated and doesn't capture latino or spanish speakers very well...clinton is ptobably ahead 5-10 when factoring their antiquated methodology

[Virginiá]

...

If Russia interfered in the US Presidential election to try to help one of the candidates, would that make you more or less likely to vote for the candidate Russia was trying to help, or would it not make a difference?
More likely 5%
Less likely 52%
Wouldn't make a difference 36%
Not sure 6%

lol @ 5% "more likely" to vote for a candidate being helped by Putin. Surely a candidate Putin feels so strongly inclined to hack for must be good!

[Wells]

...

If Russia interfered in the US Presidential election to try to help one of the candidates, would that make you more or less likely to vote for the candidate Russia was trying to help, or would it not make a difference?
More likely 5%
Less likely 52%
Wouldn't make a difference 36%
Not sure 6%

lol @ 5% "more likely" to vote for a candidate being helped by Putin. Surely a candidate Putin feels so strongly inclined to hack for must be good!

They were probably Trump supporters smart enough to figure what they were talking about.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I almost cried literal tears of joy at that 50%.

[evergreenarbor]

Trump in 4th place with blacks:

Clinton 89%
Johnson 4%
Stein 4%
Trump 2%

Stein and Johnson at 4% each? Wat.

[Maxwell]

What's also interesting about their demographic numbers is that it almost EXACTLY matches the numbers from the 2012 Presidential election in terms of how much of each race.

[Tender Branson]

Now, this poll looks fine.

Looks like Clinton got a bounce that was 1-2% higher than Trump's (she was up by 3-4% before the RNC).

[politicallefty]

Now, this poll looks fine.

Looks like Clinton got a bounce that was 1-2% higher than Trump's (she was up by 3-4% before the RNC).

I'm in general agreement with you, but don't convention bumps take several days to totally manifest themselves in the polls?

Also, I have a hard time seeing Hillary not getting at least into the high 70s among Hispanics. One issue I've seen raised is that a lot of pollsters don't poll Spanish speakers. I don't know how much truth there is to that point, but I'd imagine it would underestimate Hillary's support among Hispanics by several points.

[ag]

Also, I have a hard time seeing Hillary not getting at least into the high 70s among Hispanics. One issue I've seen raised is that a lot of pollsters don't poll Spanish speakers. I don't know how much truth there is to that point, but I'd imagine it would underestimate Hillary's support among Hispanics by several points.

Hispanics are a self-identified and rather heterogeneous group. But they have been around for a while. Pollsters, of course, are aware of the points we make here. We, however, are not really expert on how the polls are cooked. So, I would say that the safest thing for everyone is to assume that the pollsters know what they are doing. We will know in November. If pre-election polls are at odds with the final results: well, yeah, something new has happened that they screwed up on. But, for now at least, we have no evidence based on which to theorise.

[StatesPoll]

https://t.co/ZauktuqbHF

Clinton: 46
Trump: 41
Johnson: 6
Stein: 2


Clinton: 50
Trump: 45

#UnSkewthePoll

PPP July 29-30th. Democrats 43% Republican 36% Independent 21%

overweighted Democrats a bit. And Underweighted Independent voters too much.
(Election 2012 it was 29%)
And TRUMP beat Hillary of Indpendent 42%-35% at this time PPP Poll.

so, Hillary's lead is not +5%. perhaps around +2%

[Eraserhead]

Undecideds approve of Obama by 55/33, but hate Trump and Hillary about equally (something insane like 2/84 and 4/83 or something respectively). These people may just sit out.

I wonder what Bernie's numbers are with them...

[Ebsy]

Undecideds approve of Obama by 55/33, but hate Trump and Hillary about equally (something insane like 2/84 and 4/83 or something respectively). These people may just sit out.

I wonder what Bernie's numbers are with them...

Keep wondering.

[Eraserhead]

Undecideds approve of Obama by 55/33, but hate Trump and Hillary about equally (something insane like 2/84 and 4/83 or something respectively). These people may just sit out.

I wonder what Bernie's numbers are with them...

Keep wondering.

Okay?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Now, this poll looks fine.

Looks like Clinton got a bounce that was 1-2% higher than Trump's (she was up by 3-4% before the RNC).

I'm in general agreement with you, but don't convention bumps take several days to totally manifest themselves in the polls?

Kind of. So right now Clinton's lead is probably little bit overestimated.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Now, this poll looks fine.

Looks like Clinton got a bounce that was 1-2% higher than Trump's (she was up by 3-4% before the RNC).

I'm in general agreement with you, but don't convention bumps take several days to totally manifest themselves in the polls?

Kind of. So right now Clinton's lead is probably little bit overestimated.

Note that says COULD. They're hypothesising an equal 3.5% bounce. But that's not what that graph is doing. It's saying bounces tend to wash out, if they're bounces.

[/]

They used my question in the poll again!