What are the best case, worst case and median scenarios for a Trump presidency?

[Nichlemn]

Or if you like to think quantitatively, the 99th percentile, 1st percentile and 50th percentile outcomes.

Feel free to base your answers on your own subjective political views. E.g. if you're a liberal Democrat, "Trump is actually a Democrat plant all along" might be your 99th percentile outcome.

[Nichlemn]

My answers:

Best case/99th percentile: As a businessman with many foreign investments and foreign workers, Trump doesn't believe any of his nativist rhetoric. However, his strongman/dealmaker image causes other countries to open up their markets out of fear of Trump being a hardliner, resulting in a freer, more globalised world.

Median case/50th percentile: Trump doesn't fully achieve any of his promises in part due to stymieing from Congress (e.g. the Mexico border wall would probably end up as a few symbolic sections and generally increased funding for border security). For the most past, his Presidency is business as usual for most Americans. There are plenty of controversies, but most of them are primarily of symbolic importance (e.g. accusations of bigotry). Nonetheless, his Presidency still leaves the US and the world a more insular and less trusting place, holding back global cooperation.

Worst case/1st percentile: Trump sincerely wants to become an authoritarian dictator. Everything Vox warns about him is true. Trump will do everything he can to increase executive power and try to punish his political opponents. Thankfully, American democratic institutes are probably too strong for Trump to become a fully-fledged dictator. However, he will have softened them up enough that he would have materially increased the chances of a future President becoming a dictator.

I think that the worst cases scenarios are the best reason to oppose Trump. It's not at all likely that Trump will be the next Hitler, but those small odds are probably larger than any other recent Presidential candidate.

[President Johnson]

The above options seem good. I think the median case is the most realistic one. Big Don won't get all he wants (no president to this date did, even not FDR, LBJ or Reagan), but he will do a good job overall.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Best: Dubya's presidency all over again.

Median: Within the next 4 years the US has lost its global superpower status and has a negative migration flux.

Worst: Nuclear war.

[136or142]

Best case: nuclear Armageddon
Median case: nuclear Armageddon
Worst case: nuclear Armageddon

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Best case: Trump turns into FDR and tells the economic liberterians to go off  themselfs. He Invests huge sums of money in repairing our infrastructure, reforming education and bringing millions of jobs back to our soil, but he does it in away that doesn't make the world angry with him and he uses the best people to do it. He also enforces our anti-trust laws allowing far more competition for the first time in decades and reworks our trade deals to favor our country...Any business that outsources gets taxed big time. He gets a lot of what he wants on immigration and probably a wall.  

The best case would probably be with a democratic senate and only a very small republican majority in the house.

What is most likely: Trump comes to power and pretty much screams at congress, the world and the American people to give him what he wants. He is forced to pretty much agree with the liberterian gop congress(Speaker Ryan) against his inner wishes and slashes government...Abolishing Energy, Education and probably more. The gop congresses passes a bill increasing funding for added border guards and alot more deportations. Pretty much we have a smaller, less funded and weaker country! Congress pretty much blocks him on remaking trade deals the way he wishes to make them as the moderates in both parties make sure of it.

Worse case: On the home front the congress freedom caucus takes over and elects the next speaker of the house. This new speaker is a hard core radical that hates government with a passion but also a nationalist! The republicans also keep the senate in this case but the radical faction also takes over that... On one hand Trump gets his wall across the border, 11 million people are deported and gets to be a hard core isolationist on trade. The tea party congress also allows him to use torture and other means to destroy any enemy that dares stand up to him. The bad news on the homefront is all funding for anything that wasn't around in the 18th century is slowly removed and America starts looking more like North Korea...Big military, powerful fascist congress but one that doesn't give a damn about anyone that doesn't have millions of bucks in the bank! Trump pretty much tariffs the hell out of all companies over sea's, which forces them back, but then he turns his back on all issues of workers rights so these companies can pay pennies per hour to American workers...Pretty much the glided age again rises on America.

Americas middle class dies and is replaced with a ever expanding lower class of serfs for the few at the top.

[BlueSwan]

Best case: Lame duck president. Terrible for US-foreign relations, but nothing much is actually done.

Median case (most likely): Global economic meltdown. US weakened significantly.

Worst case: Nuclear armageddon

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

best case: assassinated within the first few weeks. pence is a weak, w-type president and loses reëlection (and the midterms) convincingly.
median case: war crimes on a massive scale, undermines the democratic structure of the country, etc., etc.. becomes a putin-type despot-in-all-but-name.
worst case (~25%): nucleär ww3, end of civilisation as we know it

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Best Case: Trump governs as a slightly-less competent and more erratic Gov. Schwartzenegger. As a prominent but controversial public figure, he serves out his full term with his supporters making a plausible case that he's been the most effective President since Reagan.

Median: Trump actually doesn't govern, and/or doesn't serve out his full term. There are multiple major scandals and power-struggles in the Trump administration. Liberal institutions and ideals, from the EPA to civil rights, face significant erosion. The US faces its greatest level of domestic strife since the Civil War, a stumbling economy, and disastrous foreign policy.


Worst Case: the disintegration of the United States, global war, massive economic collapse, and the end of modern civilization. All as the direct results of Trump's actions. Future generations living in the post-apocalypse use Trump as a replacement for Satan, and their scholars question the humanity of Trump and his followers.

[President Johnson]

best case: assassinated within the first few weeks. pence is a weak, w-type president and loses reëlection (and the midterms) convincingly.
median case: war crimes on a massive scale, undermines the democratic structure of the country, etc., etc.. becomes a putin-type despot-in-all-but-name.
worst case (~25%): nucleär ww3, end of civilisation as we know it

So you're hoping for his death if he's elected?

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

best case: assassinated within the first few weeks. pence is a weak, w-type president and loses reëlection (and the midterms) convincingly.
median case: war crimes on a massive scale, undermines the democratic structure of the country, etc., etc.. becomes a putin-type despot-in-all-but-name.
worst case (~25%): nucleär ww3, end of civilisation as we know it

So you're hoping for his death if he's elected?

or before, even better. i've made no secret of this.

[President Johnson]

best case: assassinated within the first few weeks. pence is a weak, w-type president and loses reëlection (and the midterms) convincingly.
median case: war crimes on a massive scale, undermines the democratic structure of the country, etc., etc.. becomes a putin-type despot-in-all-but-name.
worst case (~25%): nucleär ww3, end of civilisation as we know it

So you're hoping for his death if he's elected?

or before, even better. i've made no secret of this.

But these are the people complaining about the political climate. Hoping for the other nominee to die or being assassinated is disgusting and hateful. You just can't accuse TRUMP for spreading hate and make such statements. And, by the way, no matter how much disagree with him, isn't The Donald a human being whose life has to protected as everybody else's, just as guaranteed by the constitution?

I'd never hope for Hillary (or any other candidate, no matter how terrible he/she is (like Cruz for example)) to die. I hope she's defeated in November; and if not, I wish her well.

[dspNY]

Best case: Societal breakdown and chaos. Millions are deported, but somehow we avoid a nuclear conflict by the good graces of Putin. The economy collapses like 1929.

Median case: A limited nuclear exchange occurs either in Eastern Europe or the Middle East

Worst case: Strategic nuclear exchange, end of civilization

[BlueSwan]

best case: assassinated within the first few weeks. pence is a weak, w-type president and loses reëlection (and the midterms) convincingly.
median case: war crimes on a massive scale, undermines the democratic structure of the country, etc., etc.. becomes a putin-type despot-in-all-but-name.
worst case (~25%): nucleär ww3, end of civilisation as we know it

So you're hoping for his death if he's elected?

or before, even better. i've made no secret of this.

But these are the people complaining about the political climate. Hoping for the other nominee to die or being assassinated is disgusting and hateful. You just can't accuse TRUMP for spreading hate and make such statements. And, by the way, no matter how much disagree with him, isn't The Donald a human being whose life has to protected as everybody else's, just as guaranteed by the constitution?

I'd never hope for Hillary (or any other candidate, no matter how terrible he/she is (like Cruz for example)) to die. I hope she's defeated in November; and if not, I wish her well.

Would you wish Hitler well in 1933 as well? Don't act like Trump is an ordinary politician. This is a large scale catastrophe waiting to happen.

[President Johnson]

best case: assassinated within the first few weeks. pence is a weak, w-type president and loses reëlection (and the midterms) convincingly.
median case: war crimes on a massive scale, undermines the democratic structure of the country, etc., etc.. becomes a putin-type despot-in-all-but-name.
worst case (~25%): nucleär ww3, end of civilisation as we know it

So you're hoping for his death if he's elected?

or before, even better. i've made no secret of this.

But these are the people complaining about the political climate. Hoping for the other nominee to die or being assassinated is disgusting and hateful. You just can't accuse TRUMP for spreading hate and make such statements. And, by the way, no matter how much disagree with him, isn't The Donald a human being whose life has to protected as everybody else's, just as guaranteed by the constitution?

I'd never hope for Hillary (or any other candidate, no matter how terrible he/she is (like Cruz for example)) to die. I hope she's defeated in November; and if not, I wish her well.

Would you wish Hitler well in 1933 as well? Don't act like Trump is an ordinary politician. This is a large scale catastrophe waiting to happen.

The Trump-Hitler comparison is ridiculous and almost everybody knows this. Big Don never called for systematical mass executions or anything near that. And yes, he's not an ordinary politican. He isn't even a real politican. He's a (mainly) successfull businessman and very successfull reality-TV star who talks his mind and wants to shake up the establishment. There's nothing wrong with that. There's nothing wrong with calling for secure borders, legal instead of illegal immigration and execute immigration laws that are already in place. There's nothing wrong with renegotiating bad trade deals and protecting the US market wrong cheap chinese imports. And there's nothing wrong in calling for normalized relations with Russia.

America and West should be better than this. We don't call for political opponents to be assassinated. Imagine if TRUMP did this. So why the double standard?

And by the way: I wrote that I'd wish Hillary well should she win. To me, the good of a country is more important than the rest. I personally believe Big Don is the far better the candidate, but unlike others I don't hate the other nominee that much that I'd wish for her death or that she'll do such a bad job that hurts the country.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

best case: assassinated within the first few weeks. pence is a weak, w-type president and loses reëlection (and the midterms) convincingly.
median case: war crimes on a massive scale, undermines the democratic structure of the country, etc., etc.. becomes a putin-type despot-in-all-but-name.
worst case (~25%): nucleär ww3, end of civilisation as we know it

So you're hoping for his death if he's elected?

or before, even better. i've made no secret of this.

But these are the people complaining about the political climate. Hoping for the other nominee to die or being assassinated is disgusting and hateful. You just can't accuse TRUMP for spreading hate and make such statements. And, by the way, no matter how much disagree with him, isn't The Donald a human being whose life has to protected as everybody else's, just as guaranteed by the constitution?

I'd never hope for Hillary (or any other candidate, no matter how terrible he/she is (like Cruz for example)) to die. I hope she's defeated in November; and if not, I wish her well.

Would you wish Hitler well in 1933 as well? Don't act like Trump is an ordinary politician. This is a large scale catastrophe waiting to happen.

The Trump-Hitler comparison is ridiculous and almost everybody knows this. Big Don never called for systematical mass executions or anything near that.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/02/politics/donald-trump-terrorists-families/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I don't know what's worse: that Trump is a wanna be mass murderer, or that his supporters are so willfully deluding themselves about him.

His promise to end "catch and release" on illegal border crossing also sounds like intending either mass executions or concentration camps. We already prosecute illegal borders crossers. If that's not enough for Trump, there's not much left besides acting like Hitler's Nazis.  But I suppose its possible that Trump is such and ignorant dumbstick, or expects his supporters to be, that he doesn't know or care about what actually happens.

[ag]

Best case scenario: he rapidly does something actionable and is impeached for High Treason.

Median scenario: complete collapse of the economy, about 1 mln Americans and 10 mln foreigners killed in wars

Worst case scenario: nuclear Holocaust, life on this planet is over.

[President Johnson]

best case: assassinated within the first few weeks. pence is a weak, w-type president and loses reëlection (and the midterms) convincingly.
median case: war crimes on a massive scale, undermines the democratic structure of the country, etc., etc.. becomes a putin-type despot-in-all-but-name.
worst case (~25%): nucleär ww3, end of civilisation as we know it

So you're hoping for his death if he's elected?

or before, even better. i've made no secret of this.

But these are the people complaining about the political climate. Hoping for the other nominee to die or being assassinated is disgusting and hateful. You just can't accuse TRUMP for spreading hate and make such statements. And, by the way, no matter how much disagree with him, isn't The Donald a human being whose life has to protected as everybody else's, just as guaranteed by the constitution?

I'd never hope for Hillary (or any other candidate, no matter how terrible he/she is (like Cruz for example)) to die. I hope she's defeated in November; and if not, I wish her well.

Would you wish Hitler well in 1933 as well? Don't act like Trump is an ordinary politician. This is a large scale catastrophe waiting to happen.

The Trump-Hitler comparison is ridiculous and almost everybody knows this. Big Don never called for systematical mass executions or anything near that.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/02/politics/donald-trump-terrorists-families/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I don't know what's worse: that Trump is a wanna be mass murderer, or that his supporters are so willfully deluding themselves about him.

His promise to end "catch and release" on illegal border crossing also sounds like intending either mass executions or concentration camps. We already prosecute illegal borders crossers. If that's not enough for Trump, there's not much left besides acting like Hitler's Nazis.  But I suppose its possible that Trump is such and ignorant dumbstick, or expects his supporters to be, that he doesn't know or care about what actually happens.

Uhm, no, all he calls for is within current existing law. And as far as I understand it, the chief executive is required to exercise the laws of the land. Second, he said on various occasions that deportations will be done humanly and that "the good ones" can come back legally. Big Don has never called for mass executions. These are attempts by far-left activists to paint him as Hitler 2.0 to spread fear because of their dislike (or in some cases hate) for this unconventional candidate.

As far as the terrorists are concerened, he cleared this up in later interviews (http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/03/04/donald-trump-reverses-position-on-torture-and-killing-terrorists-families/). Holding them accountable if they knew something is not a bad thing, but not execute them.

[win win]

Peoople are dumb enough to think the "median" case is he collapses the economy LOL.

[Devout Centrist]

Best case: nuclear Armageddon?
Median case: nuclear Armageddon!
Worst case: *sigh* nuclear Armageddon

[Storebought]

A Trump presidency at its very best will resemble Arnold Schwarzenegger's tenure as governor of CA.

If you can recall the dark era, magazines like the Economist routinely wrote editorials about how CA was both financially and morally bankrupt and inherently "ungovernable," all on account of Schwarzenegger's incompetence. The same will be said about the US during a Trump presidency -- but that's only if Trump decides to govern with Schwarzenegger's earnestness and conscientiousness. But he won't, he's all but promised not to, so I expect a Trump presidency to be far, far worse than that.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Peoople are dumb enough to think the "median" case is he collapses the economy LOL.

He'd collapse the economy by simply using liberterian economics that have proven to fail everytime they have ever been used.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

That is really finks up Evergreen. I just hope Hillary gets like impeached or something. I don't want her to have a stroke or anything (she probably will, but still, I hope not).

[Wells]

Best case: Trump turns around and becomes a liberal, getting universal health care passed through Congress (through his impressive dealmaking skills), expanding abortion rights, and keeping a noninterventionist foreign policy. He begins condemning racism (as hate crimes would definitely spike if he were elected) and takes more moderate stances on his campaign planks (eg deportations on a small scale, letting families in but blocking the other refugees). He gets bored and resigns about a year in, and he names Clinton as his successor.

Median case: He governs as a moderate, following all his named policy positions to a T, causing debt to skyrocket (along with hate crimes, as he only halfheartedly condemns them after much pushing from liberals). However, he does go with liberal positions on abortion and TPP, and his presidency is only remembered as eventful but lacking substance.

Worst case: He does everything he says he will, causing Russia to be more powerful than half of Europe and refuses to step in when they invade the Baltic states (as they didn't pay their fair share) and force them to rejoin Russia. Debt doubles by the end of his first term. He launches a military campaign in the Middle East to take their oil. If somebody's next-door neighbor commits a crime they are also arrested and questioned as to why they didn't report it. News outlets are scared of saying anything bad about Trump as he sues the ones that do and gets them shut down. His supreme court nominees are yes-men he uses to do things that are unconstitutional and get away with it. (In addition to his two nominees, he'd replace Scalia and Ginsburg and likely someone else. That's five.) Mexico refuses to pay for the wall, so he increases tariffs, but it still isn't enough, and now all products from Mexico are thousands of dollars. His disastrous tax plan and large increases in defense spending cause a huge deficit which can't be offset by the removal of the EPA and Department of Education. North Korea tests a nuclear missile on Alaska (something they're not afraid to do with Trump as president) and Trump responds by testing America's nuclear missiles on North Korea (which also destroys South Korea and the US friendship with Japan is ruined). China responds the same way, then Western Europe isn't able to come to America's aid because all their resources are focused on fighting Russia. Once America is out of the way, Russia brings out their nukes. . .

[evergreenarbor]

Best case: Trump can't deal with the stress of the presidency. He throws a fit and resigns within a month. Pence is an incompetent president and alienates moderates with socially conservative legislation that fails to get through the Democratic Senate. Pence's approval ratings drop below 30% by 2018 and Democrats take both houses of Congress in the midterms. Pence is thrown out in a landslide in 2020. The Republicans rethink their platform and move closer to the center as the Trump and Pence/Cruz wings of the party lose credibility.

Median case: Trump sows division within the country. He can't get much done with a Democratic Senate, but his rhetoric leads to an increase in the frequency of hate crimes. America's reputation abroad suffers. The economy enters a recession in 2017 (not as bad as the 2008 recession) and Trump's economic policies don't have much of an impact. Democrats hold the Senate and almost take the House in 2018. Trump tries to crack down on the media, protesters, etc., but is stopped by the Supreme Court and the Senate. Trump is defeated in a landslide in 2020 and the Republican Party drifts even further to the right as the Cruz wing of the party gains power.

Worst case: The economy plunges into a depression when Trump is elected. His economic policies make it much worse. America descends into 1968-style chaos as hate crimes become more frequent and people turn to other forms of crime because of economic deprivation. Trump turns to authoritarian tactics to crack down on dissent; the Supreme Court is powerless to stop him and the Republican Congress doesn't try to stop him either. Trump brings about a nuclear Armageddon within a year after an incident involving fighter planes over the South China Sea. The Republican Party doesn't change at all because everyone is dead.