When will West Virginia go back to the Democrats?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I understand that WV's transition into a republican state is incomplete. Justice/Cole should be tight. Manchin/Whoever will be tight, assuming he's seriously challenged, which is not guaranteed. But it's clearly not trending D, although there may be a "dead cat bounce" for Hillary this year because Obama '12 did so comically bad. Republicans show no sign of shedding ground in the state anytime soon.

How many years will it be before WV trends D in a big way? 30? 50?

[Weiner/Holder]

MAYBE if Democrats run unopposed.  Remember there were counties there who didn't even vote for Obama in the 2012 primary.  It's proof that supporting gun control will assassinate your chances.

[IceSpear]

Never, barring a realignment. And LOL at 2018 being tight. Manchin will retire or get Blanched.

[IceSpear]

Maybe in 30-40 years when the Eastern Panhandle sees an increase in population and starts to vote like Fairfax County? lol

But most likely, never. And yeah, Manchin is in for a Blanchin' if Clinton is president.

He'll still get crushed even if Trump is president, lol.

[evergreenarbor]

Not until the next realignment, whenever that is.

[RINO Tom]

I suppose if coal completely dies out (i.e., is no longer a campaign issue), our current social issues shift into a different era (i.e., a climate similar to when the Blue Laws were passed and being "socially conservative" was often associated with the elite in society) and WV is still a very poor state, it could come home.

As long as the Democratic Party is associated with environmentalism, BLM and SJWs (groups that have next to no presence in WV), WV will remain solid R in Presidential elections.  I think pro-coal Democrats can remain at least competitive into the near future at the local level simply due to their huge institutional advantage.  Considering even in AL and MS Democrats hold most county offices still, I'd guess that WV Democrats will maintain county-level control into the foreseeable future.

[Suburbia]

Maybe in 30-40 years when the Eastern Panhandle sees an increase in population and starts to vote like Fairfax County? lol

But most likely, never. And yeah, Manchin is in for a Blanchin' if Clinton is president.

He'll still get crushed even if Trump is president, lol.

I think Manchin will survive the potential Republican wave year in 2018. He knows how to campaign.

[Kingpoleon]

Whenever the Democrats follow those like Josh Svaty, Franken, Dean, Schweitzer, Begich, and Sanders. That is, when the Democrats focus more on an alliance between rural areas/agriculture workers and union members.

[Xing]

Unless there's some kind of huge population shift in the state, never.

[DINGO Joe]

Well, WV is a demographic, economic, public health, and geographic nightmare (save for the East Panhandle and Morgantown to an extent) and it's decline is a given for as far as the eye can see.  The smart ones with resources to get out have gotten out.  Pretty much leaves the poor, the disabled and the elderly behind, many living in difficult terrain where infrastructure and services are hard to provide.  Unpleasant no matter how they choose to vote.

[DS0816]

With recent polls showing that more Republicans—when it should be Democrats—are against trade deals … there is no reason Democrats should be able to carry West Virginia.

[RINO Tom]

With recent polls showing that more Republicans—when it should be Democrats—are against trade deals … there is no reason Democrats should be able to carry West Virginia.

I suppose it's equally relevant that Republican POLITICIANS are still much, much more likely to support trade deals than Democratic politicians.

[LLR]

Still not for a long time - wrong demographics.

[White Trash]

Once Santander and I are co-chairs of the DNC.

[DINGO Joe]

Once Santander and I are co-chairs of the DNC.

What would you possible do for WV?  And Santander is a tea drinking rootless cosmopolitan who would faint if he went east out of Lexington.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Another 30-40 years until the next realignment occurs. The eastern part of the state's demographics may start to resemble NoVa due to changes in the electorate.

[White Trash]

Once Santander and I are co-chairs of the DNC.

What would you possible do for WV?  And Santander is a tea drinking rootless cosmopolitan who would faint if he went east out of Lexington.

Really pull out the stops on the "y'alls" and "shucks". Play Tom Petty music at rallies, while sippin' sweet tea and bourbon. Folks don't vote on policy anymore, they vote on aesthetics.

[DINGO Joe]

Once Santander and I are co-chairs of the DNC.

What would you possible do for WV?  And Santander is a tea drinking rootless cosmopolitan who would faint if he went east out of Lexington.

Really pull out the stops on the "y'alls" and "shucks". Play Tom Petty music at rallies, while sippin' sweet tea and bourbon. Folks don't vote on policy anymore, they vote on aesthetics.

Well, then they can be comfortable as they die-off.  Though WV is more of a beer and drive your ATV around aesthetic.

[pbrower2a]

The Democrats really messed up in West Virginia. Democrats could win West Virginia so long as the United Mine Workers could deliver the vote to any non-extremist Democrat (West Virginia was a horrible state for McGovern in 1972). Democrats failed to invest in education, public health (the UMW has a good health-care plan, and non-miners can buy into it)  and infrastructure to prepare West Virginia for the inevitable end of the economic basis of the Democrats' hold of the state.  The coal seams were going to eventually be worked out, and such would mean mass layoffs of coal miners. The UMW (really a very good union) shriveled.

West Virginia is one of the poorest states in the Union even if it is very white. The state has little legacy of a plantation society, so it does not have a legacy of poor blacks who still hurt from Jim Crow. (In fact, West Virginia seceded from Virginia during the Civil War because its people didn't want to die to defend slavery). West Virginia is toward the bottom in education and public health. It has horrible roads. Its old economic base of coal is all but gone. Democrats were around during that decline, and they got the fault for that. Getting pork-barrel spending from Democrats when Robert Byrd was Senator? Its Republican pols can get that with Republican pols now.

Democrats should have been pushing tourism (the state is beautiful) that includes hunting and fishing... but they sat on their hands and assumed that tradition would keep West Virginia Democratic.

One test of how partisan a state is is whether it votes for losers in blow-out or near-blowout elections. West Virginia voted for Carter in 1980 and Dukakis in 1988. Although it voted for Bill Clinton twice, that may be the last time that West Virginia votes for a Democratic nominee for President. The state was a blow-out loss for Obama in 2008 in a near-landslide for Obama where he won.

Maybe Barack Obama is seen in the Mountain and Deep South much like McGovern in 1972... but Barack Obama is no extremist. He's very much a conservative on crime and drugs. His foreign policy is basically what Ronald Reagan got away with, so that is not radical.  Barack Obama could have won the West Virginia of the 1980s  and 1990s -- maybe as a more astute politician than Al Gore he might have won a 2000 version of West Virginia. But that's as far as it goes. If Obama couldn't win West Virginia in 2008 no Democrat can today.

The UMW is so weak now that the the West Virginia state legislature enacted a Right to Work (for starvation wages) law.

I can't see what problems the GOP can solve in West Virginia except to keep expectations low as a Third World community in a First World country. Unlike Michigan, which has a solid agricultural sector that can tide the state through as the auto industry declines, West Virginia is a poor state for agriculture. West Virginia has poor K-12 education and no colleges that get respect outside of West Virginia, so it won't attract high technology. Right-to-Work (for starvation-level wages) laws may be good for drawing in sweat-shop employers, but the state has awful highways. Republicans love lax environmental regulation, but put dirty industry in West Virginia's mountainous terrain and the state will be an environmental catastrophe due in part to its hot, humid summers.

Democrats aren't making a comeback in West Virginia for a very long time.  West Virginia projects to be one of the worst states for Hillary Clinton. 

[hopper]

Maybe in 30-40 years when the Eastern Panhandle sees an increase in population and starts to vote like Fairfax County? lol

But most likely, never. And yeah, Manchin is in for a Blanchin' if Clinton is president.

I don't see the Eastern Panhandle of WV voting like NOVA since the MD Panhandle still votes Republican and the VA counties that are by the WV border vote Republican as well.