VT-VPR: Leahy +39

[RINO Tom]

Bummer.   Very different state than it was even 15 years ago.

[RINO Tom]

Bummer.   Very different state than it was even 15 years ago.

I know. I miss the old Vermont. I still don't know or understand how it went from being the only state (other than Maine) that never voted for FDR to being basically Commie Paradise.

I mean, generations have different political views (Newt Gingrich's generation was MUCH more conservative than their parents' in the South), and VT's demographics were quite different then than now.  Its population exploded in the mid-20th Century, mostly from more liberal transplants coming in from NY, MA and CT (I believe there's still a "Take Back Vermont" movement).  In 2000, when Gore won seniors nationwide, he lost them in VT, leading us to believe a lot of the VT Republicans died off rather than abandoning the party.  Combine that with some who got turned off by an increasingly socially conservative GOP, and we've lost the state.

IceSpear, I'm not so sure about that.  As is always pointed out, a gubernatorial race is local, and arguments like "a vote for [Republican] is just a vote for Mitch McConnell" don't hold weight.  I mean, a lot of local control (like county sheriffs) is still controlled by the GOP.

[RINO Tom]

Bummer.   Very different state than it was even 15 years ago.

Now you know what NH will look like in 15-20 years. The Eastern Vermont part of NH is too much for the GOP to overcome.

Is the eastern part growing any faster than the Republican Boston suburbs...?

[RINO Tom]

Bummer.  Very different state than it was even 15 years ago.

Now you know what NH will look like in 15-20 years. The Eastern Vermont part of NH is too much for the GOP to overcome.

Is the eastern part growing any faster than the Republican Boston suburbs...?

I honestly don't know (leaning no), but does it really matter? Republicans need to win the 1st district by a much wider margin in order to win statewide. It's the NH natives (especially women) that have trended strongly Democratic in the past two decades. IIRC, Scott Brown even won MA transplants in 2014. While I admit that Trump will keep NH closer than Romney in a close election, it's impossible to see how he could win the state. He has a much better chance of winning Maine's second district, where there's no "Vermontification" going on.

The same Democratic trend is also happening in VT, Western MA and parts of Upstate NY.

I'm not commenting on the prospects of Republicans winning there, I'm questioning whether NH is headed toward the kinds of margins we see in VT, which would necessitate the Democratic rural areas far outgrow the Republican suburbs.

[RINO Tom]

If this were an open race, I think we'd see more of a generic IL/CT result.