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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  2024 Democratic Nomination Odds
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Author Topic: 2024 Democratic Nomination Odds  (Read 1243 times)
TarHeelDem
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« on: July 26, 2016, 02:54:07 pm »

This scenario assumes that Clinton wins in 2016, runs unopposed in the 2020 primary, and wins that general as well. Who's in the conversation to take up her mantle in 2024 and how likely is each individual to secure the nomination?
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #1 on: July 26, 2016, 05:25:38 pm »

VP Tim Kaine - 25%
Senator Kamala Harris - 20%
Governor Gavin Newsom - 20%
Governor Bill De Blasio - 15%
Field - 20%
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2016, 09:10:39 am »

Tim Kaine - 20%
Cory Booker - 6%
Gavin Newsom - 5%
Chris Murphy - 5%
Eric Garcetti - 5%
Kamala Harris - 5%
Seth Moulton - 3%
Julian/Joaquin Castro - 3% combined
Kasim Reed - 2%
Jared Polis - 2%
Joe Kennedy III - 2%
Jason Carter - 2%
Field - 40%
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Southern Delegate Spark
Spark498
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« Reply #3 on: July 28, 2016, 11:17:22 am »

Kaine, Harris, Newsom
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Vosem
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« Reply #4 on: July 28, 2016, 01:02:26 pm »

Almost certainly a decent chunk of what ends up being the serious field are obscure right now. Hillary v. Bernie was profoundly unusual as a race between two people who had been continuously in politics for decades.
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