Leanings of past elections...country as a whole

[twenty42]

Outlook on the popular vote going into each election...

2012--Tossup/Lean D
2008--Likely D
2004--Tossup/Lean R
2000--Tossup
1996--Safe D
1992--Lean/Likely D
1988--Lean/Likely R
1984--Safe R
1980--Lean R
1976--Tossup
1972--Safe R
1968--Lean R
1964--Safe D
1960--Tossup

Thoughts?

[Representative simossad]

1968 was a tossup, in my opinion.

[OSR stands with Israel]

1948: Lean R
1952: Safe R
1956: Safe R
1960: Tossup
1964: Safe D
1968:Lean R
1972: Safe R
1976: Tossup/Lean D
1980: Likely R
1984: Safe R
1988: Likely/Safe R
1992: Lean/Likely D
1996: Safe D
2000: Tossup
2004: Tossup/Lean R
2008: Likely D
2012: Tossup/Lean D

[Hatman 🍁]

2004 was very much a tossup, you darned whipersnappers are too young to remember.

[MIKESOWELL]

I disagree with 1968, 2004, 2012, and to a small extent, 2000. Even on Election Day in 2012, there was much speculation that Obama would win a narrow electoral college victory, but lose the popular vote to Romney. In 1968, many felt that the surging Humphrey could take the electoral college in the end, but even if he lost the electoral college, he still might win the popular vote. In 2004, though Kerry was generally a few points behind more often than not, a popular vote victory for President Bush was no where near assured. Even in 2000, I remember much speculation that Gore might eke out a narrow electoral college victory, but it was probable that Bush would win the popular vote, as he had maintained a small but somewhat consistent lead throughout the general election. That is why it was rather surprising that Gore won the popular vote by some 540,000 votes.

[hopper]

I disagree with 1968, 2004, 2012, and to a small extent, 2000. Even on Election Day in 2012, there was much speculation that Obama would win a narrow electoral college victory, but lose the popular vote to Romney. In 1968, many felt that the surging Humphrey could take the electoral college in the end, but even if he lost the electoral college, he still might win the popular vote. In 2004, though Kerry was generally a few points behind more often than not, a popular vote victory for President Bush was no where near assured. Even in 2000, I remember much speculation that Gore might eke out a narrow electoral college victory, but it was probable that Bush would win the popular vote, as he had maintained a small but somewhat consistent lead throughout the general election. That is why it was rather surprising that Gore won the popular vote by some 540,000 votes.

Yeah I said to my Dad a few months before the 2012 Election that Romney would probably would win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College to Obama. Well I was right about 1 of the 2!

[ElectionsGuy]

2012 - Lean D
2008 - Likely D
2004 - Toss-Up
2000 - Toss-Up
1996 - Likely D
1992 - Lean D
1988 - Likely R
1984 - Safe R
1980 - Likely R
1976 - Toss-Up
1972 - Safe R
1968 - Toss-Up
1964 - Safe D
1960 - Toss-Up
1956 - Safe R
1952 - Safe R
1948 - Lean D
1944 - Likely D
1940 - Likely D
1936 - Safe D
1932 - Safe D
1928 - Safe R
1924 - Safe R
1920 - Safe R
1916 - Lean D
1912 - Likely D
1908 - Likely R
1904 - Safe R

[Gass3268]

538 had 2012 at a 90% Obama win on election Day. That's pretty close to Safe D for me. Likely D at worst.

[Mr. Smith]

1948: Lean R
1952: Likely R
1956: Safe R
1960: Tossup
1964: Safe D
1968: Lean R
1972: Safe R
1976: Toss-up/Tilt D
1980: Likely R
1984: Safe R
1988: Likely R
1992: Lean D
1996: Safe D
2000: Tossup
2004: Toss-up/Tilt R
2008: Safe D
2012: Lean D

[Sumner 1868]

1948: Safe R
1952: Safe R
1956: Safe R
1960: Tossup
1964: Safe D
1968: Likely R
1972: Safe R
1976: Likely D
1980: Likely R
1984: Safe R
1988: Likely R
1992: Likely D
1996: Safe D
2000: Likely R
2004: Tossup
2008: Likely/Safe D
2012: Likely D

[Thunderbird is the word]

I think that between Vietnam, the rise of crime and backlash against the Great Society, 68 was a likely and maybe even safe R. Humphrey just ran a pretty good campaign and narrowed the gap.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

1960: Tossup
1964: Safe D (Lean D before Goldwater got the GOP nod)
1968: Lean R (Move to Tossup in final weeks)
1972: Safe R (Lean R before McGovern got the Dem nod)
1976: Strong D (Move to Tossup in final weeks)
1980: Lean R (Tossup between RNC and last few weeks)
1984: Strong R (Tossup early in the campaign)
1988: Lean R (Move from Tossup after RNC)
1992: Lean D
1996: Strong D
2000: Tossup
2004: Tossup
2008: Lean D
2012: Tossup

[ElectionsGuy]

538 had 2012 at a 90% Obama win on election Day. That's pretty close to Safe D for me. Likely D at worst.

Doesn't the word 'safe' pretty much imply it has to be very close to 100%? In 2012 the tipping point state was Colorado, did anyone think Colorado was Safe D or even Likely D?

[Xing]

538 had 2012 at a 90% Obama win on election Day. That's pretty close to Safe D for me. Likely D at worst.

Doesn't the word 'safe' pretty much imply it has to be very close to 100%? In 2012 the tipping point state was Colorado, did anyone think Colorado was Safe D or even Likely D?

Most people thought Colorado was a toss-up, but didn't think it would be the tipping point. The consensus before the election was that Ohio would be, and most analysts considered it at least Lean D.

I'd say 2012 was Tilt/Lean D initially, but Likely D at the time of the election. Obama had a narrow advantage going in, and while things moved back and forth a little bit, it was a relatively stable election, and his advantage pretty much held throughout the cycle.